Could there be war in the Caspian Sea?

From "The Russia Journal", Vol 4, No 32, August 17-23, 2001
The Russia Journal is at <www.russiajournal.com>.

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Could there be war in the Caspian Sea?
Tensions rise between Iran, Azeris, but others also on edge 

By VLADIMIR MUKHIN / Special to The Russia Journal
 
Tension mounted in the southern Caspian in late July when an Iranian air 
force plane crossed the Astana Gasankuli line – which had marked the sea 
border between the Soviet Union and Iran – and circled over two Azerbaijani 
ships. An Iranian warship approached and demanded that the Azerbaijani 
vessels move five miles to the north.

The two geological exploration ships were sailing near the Araz-Alov-Sharg 
oilfields (as they are known in Azerbaijan). Six days later, another Iranian 
plane entered the area. Azerbaijani military specialists say the plane flew 
at 500 km/h at a height of 200 meters, meaning it could have taken 
photographs of the oilfields. Azerbaijan considers the oilfields its 
territory and wants to develop them together with British companies. Iran 
also claims the area. 

These are the ingredients for a potential conflict that has C.I.S. leaders 
worried. It stems from the unsettled demarcation of the sea borders of the 
strategic and economically crucial Caspian sea. Previous treaties called for 
a sharing of Caspian resources between the U.S.S.R. and Iran, the only two 
nations bordering the sea at that time. But with the fall of the Soviet 
Union, there are now five countries bordering the body of water, and it is 
not yet been decided how to divide up the riches.

Iran and Turkmenistan are pushing for an equal division – 20 percent each – 
for themselves, Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakstan. Meanwhile, Russia, 
Azerbaijan and Kazakstan say the Caspian should be divided up in relation to 
each nation’s physical border on the sea, which would give Iran the smallest 
share. It’s a volatile mix of oil and national pride that some fear could 
someday lead to a shooting war.

Commenting at the recent C.I.S. summit in Sochi, President Vladimir Putin 
said it was unacceptable to use force to resolve disputes in the Caspian. "It 
is our common task to do everything we can to make the Caspian a sea of peace 
and tranquility," he said. The presidents of Azerbaijan and Kazakstan also 
expressed commitment to resolving disputes by peaceful means.

But the Iranians seem to be in a more militant mood. Commenting on the 
actions by his country’s armed forces, Akhad Gazai, the Iranian Ambassador to 
Azerbaijan, said his government had repeatedly warned Azerbaijan about trying 
to develop the disputed oilfields before the Caspian’s status was officially 
decided.

Gazai said Iran and the former Soviet Union never signed an agreement on 
using the Caspian seabed. "The agreements signed in 1920, 1921 and 1940 gave 
both states equal shipping rights in the Caspian," he said. "Officially, the 
Astara-Gasankuli line didn’t exist; it was just that as the stronger country, 
the Soviet Union wouldn’t let Iran past that line. But now there is no Soviet 
Union, and the five Caspian nations have to come to an agreement on its 
status."

"The Caspian countries have long been talking about the need to agree on the 
sea’s status," said Military Academy Professor Valery Alexin, who was 
formerly a counter-admiral and chief naval navigator. "The problem is, it’s 
very difficult to reach an agreement. There are a lot of countries, not just 
the Caspian countries themselves, who have their eyes on a sea that could 
yield 15-30 billion tons of oil and gas. With diplomatic negotiations not 
going anywhere, force is starting to come into play. Iran has the strongest 
naval potential in the region after Russia, and it has decided to put on a 
show of force."

Alexin noted that Iran has raised defense spending to more than 7 percent of 
its GDP in recent years. It has also mastered technology for building small 
diesel submarines and naval vessels that could be deployed in the Caspian. He 
said he also has information that Iran plans to set up tactical squadrons in 
the Caspian to take part in military action if need be. The squadrons will 
include submarines, surface vessels, marine aviation and marines, he said.

Alexin saw the fact that Iran purchased a Varshavyanka submarine from Russia 
in 1995 (it’s deployed in the Persian Gulf), has naval officers training at 
Russia’s Baltiisk base and is pursuing cooperation in other military areas as 
signs that Tehran is serious about being able to ensure its security, 
including through military operations.

He said that military action in the Caspian was possible if Azerbaijan 
continued active development of the disputed oilfields. He added that 
opposition to Baku’s plans would come not just from Iran but from 
Turkmenistan as well. Turkmen authorities think Azerbaijan seized the Osman, 
Khazar and Altyn Asyr (called "Chirag," "Azeri" and "Sharg" by Azerbaijan) 
oilfields with the help of an international consortium. Recent negotiations 
between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan ended without success, and officials in 
the Turkmen capital Ashkhabad said they would defend their positions in the 
Caspian by whatever means necessary.

Officially, Turkmenistan has no navy. It renounced its share of the Caspian 
fleet in favor of Moscow after the breakup of the Soviet Union and guarded 
its sea border jointly with Russia until 1999. But Turkmenistan recently 
bought 20 ships capable of reaching high speeds from Ukraine, half of which 
are 40-ton vessels equipped with large-caliber machine guns. Turkmenistan 
also inherited from the Soviet Union the largest aviation group in Central 
Asia. There have already been cases of Turkmen military aircraft flying over 
territory it disputes with Azerbaijan.

But how prepared is Azerbaijan for military action? Azerbaijani President 
Heidar Aliyev has been stressing peaceful relations with Iran in public 
comments. He is set to visit Iran this month, and so far there has been no 
official word that the visit might be called off. Azerbaijan said it still 
hopes for a peaceful solution, probably the reason it took no retaliatory 
action toward the Iranians in recent incidents.

"This doesn’t mean Azerbaijan should have resorted to using arms," Col. 
Elchin Guliyev, Azerbaijani Border Guards commander, told journalists. 
"Retaliatory action could have dealt a serious blow to our bilateral 
relations."

But should it choose, Azerbaijan does have the capacity to retaliate. Baku 
was home to the Caspian Fleet Headquarters un-til 1992, and after the breakup 
of the Soviet Union it inherited 25 percent of the fleet’s surface vessels 
and a considerable part of the infrastructure. It is true that a lot of 
valuable equipment and arms were withdrawn to Russia, but the remaining 
infrastructure and Baku’s longtime status as home to the Caspian Fleet still 
makes it the largest base on the Caspian along, with Astrakhan.

This means that both sides in the conflict have the military potential to 
wage a war in the Caspian. Meanwhile, Russia and Kazakstan are also 
increasing their military potential in the area.

With 20,000 men, Russia has the largest fleet in the region. It has plans to 
further develop it and can reinforce it from the air through its links with 
Air Force units in the North Caucasus Military District. Russia has recently 
beefed up the Caspian fleet with amphibious planes, patrol and anti-ship 
helicopters and new vessels including four missile and artillery fast-attack 
craft. Analysts from the Turan Azerbaijan Information Agency said that Russia 
recently has nearly doubled its military potential in the Caspian.

Kazakstan is not far behind. Kazak President Nursultan Nazarbayev called the 
Caspian a priority region for his country’s armed forces. 

Like Turkmenistan, Kazakstan renounced its share of the Caspian Fleet in 1992 
and has only border guards and coastguards in the area, based in the Caspian 
ports of Aktau and Atyrau. 

Russia has signed agreements with Kazakstan to help it purchase ships and 
modernize its infrastructure. Kazakstan has agreements with Russia, Turkey 
and Ukraine to have marine personnel train in these countries’ naval 
academies. It is also opening its own naval academy this year in Aktau.

"I think the military buildup in the Caspian will deal a serious blow to 
security issues in the region," said Georgy Trapeznikov, president of the 
International Academy of Spiritual Unity Among the Peoples of the World. 
"Armed conflict can’t be ruled out in the present situation. At the next 
meeting to relaunch dialogue on the sea’s status, the Caspian states should 
agree on withdrawing naval forces from the area. It’s enough to have customs 
and border-guard services there."

(Vladimir Mukhin is military correspondent for Nezavisimaya Gazeta.)
 
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