Fwd: Singapore - Military

as input for steve sherman's reflections...

the major flaw in this write-up is that it's seeing the region only 
in terms of the us' interests. singapore is, of course, trying to 
burn both ends of the candle -- positioning itself as a global city 
and a regional hub, while leveraging its perceived advantages in 
relation to china which singapore's leaders see as the (emerging) 
real centre of e asia; thus the 'architect' of singapore's economic 
development, goh keng swee, was an adviser to beijing's economic 
tsars, although singapore-based capital has also had its fingers 
burnt in its attempt to set up in china but its ahead of the game in 
comparison with others in the sub-region (se asia). this military 
tie-up probably has more to do with singapore's 
perceptions/assessment of the sub-region as also its attempt to free 
itself of the sub-region as witness the bilateral free trade 
arrangements it's negotiating with australia, us, etc. outside of 
asean -- raising the spectre of a trojan horse in the eyes of other 
asean states.

kj khoo


--- begin forwarded text

Date: Wed, 18 Jul 2001 19:39:33 -0500 (CDT)
From: <alert@stratfor.com>
To: members@stratfor.com
Subject: Singapore - Military

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                     THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY

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                                                       18 July 2001

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       * U.S. Builds an Asian Tiger Cub in Singapore
       http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0107181530

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       http://www.stratfor.com/europe/commentary/0107182110

       * Jamaican Violence Will Grow Ahead of Elections
       http://www.stratfor.com/latinamerica/commentary/0107182140

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U.S. Builds an Asian Tiger Cub in Singapore

Summary

Singapore, better known for its electronics industry and
financial services than its defense posture, is steadily
modernizing its armed forces with the help of the United States
to secure expanding economic interests in the Asia-Pacific
region. As part of Washington's efforts to contain China through
new military allies, Singapore will transition from a small,
inert power to one of the principal military players in the Asia
Pacific.

Analysis

Singapore, a city-state of 3.2 million people that likes to think
of itself as the Switzerland of Asia, has outlined plans to
acquire dozens of new attack helicopters, fighter aircraft,
warships and other long-range land, sea and air capabilities.
These new tools will help round out a steady military buildup
begun in the mid-1990s to help Singapore actively ensure regional
stability.

Singapore is the Asian region's third-largest financial center,
after Japan and Hong Kong. It has carved itself out a small but
lucrative niche in the semiconductor manufacturing industry,
producing 8 percent of the world market in 1999. Singapore is
also known for its stable political environment and strong legal
system. Moreover, unlike Switzerland, it has the vast
opportunities of an emerging Asia on its doorstep.

But the modernizing of Singapore's armed forces is transforming
it into a key link in the security chain that the United States
is building around China. Within the decade, Singapore will
evolve from a relatively neutral participant to a major regional
player -- a development reminiscent of its days as a British
military fortress during World War II. Washington will not look
solely to Singapore to keep Beijing in military isolation, but
the tiny nation will once again play a vital role in regional
security affairs.

Like Israel, Singapore lacks strategic depth and is outnumbered
by potentially hostile neighbors. Its defense strategy,
therefore, is two-fold: Build an offensive-minded security force
that can strike at potential enemies before they harm Singapore,
and seek the support and protection of the United States.

Singapore, which spends $4 billion per year on defense, is well
positioned to acquire the weapons and technologies it needs. The
arsenal it is building will allow it to destroy enemies on the
ground, pre-emptively seize strategic territory, prevent rising
piracy and intervene quickly and effectively in Indonesia,
Malaysia and other likely trouble spots in the contested South
China Sea.

On July 10, Singapore announced that it is seeking bids for up to
two dozen cutting-edge fighter jets, at an estimated value of $2
billion, to replace its ageing fleet of A-5 Skyhawks. The deal
would be signed in 2004, and Singapore is looking closely at
Boeing's F-15 Eagle and Lockheed Martin's F-16 Fighting Falcon,
according to Bloomberg.com. The U.S. Department of Defense this
month also made Singapore eligible for an additional 12 Boeing-
built AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and related components at
an estimated cost of $617 million. Singapore currently has eight
of the tank-busting choppers.

In April, Singapore commissioned the RSS Persistence and the RSS
Endeavor, the last of four amphibious attack vessels being built
to replace Singapore's old County-class Landing Ship Tanks and
Victory class corvettes. The new amphibious ships, which can
displace 6,000 tons and command a range of 5,000 nautical miles,
are outfitted with state-of-the-art communications and other
automated tools that allow Singapore to operate effectively
alongside the United States and other advanced militaries.

On land, the first indigenously designed All Terrain Tracked
Carrier (ATTC) was delivered to Singapore's army in May. The ATTC
"can transport troops and equipment over soft muddy ground and
difficult terrain impassable to other vehicles," making it useful
in a number of combat support and service missions, Deputy Prime
Minister and Defense Minister Tony Tan Keng Yam said March 8.

In tandem with its weapons purchases, Singapore is unfolding a
"total defense" strategy that includes alliances with like-minded
nations. So far this year, Singapore has conducted an anti-
submarine warfare exercise with India, dispatched soldiers to
participate in the United Nations peacekeeping mission in East
Timor, sent airmen to Canada for an air warfare exercise and
hosted a 16-nation mine-countermeasures exercise -- the largest
in its history.

Perhaps most significantly, Singapore this year also allowed a
U.S. Navy aircraft carrier, the USS Kitty Hawk, to make a port
call for the first time. The navy has increasingly used Singapore
as a repair base for its smaller, Pacific-based ships since it
was kicked out of its Subic Bay base in the Philippines in the
early 1990s. Navy officials have been pressing for permission to
build a dry dock in Singapore to repair aircraft carriers.

The Kitty Hawk's March 22 visit to Changi Naval Base is telling.
Though Singapore's strategy pays homage first to national
survival, it also dovetails with U.S. efforts to contain China.
The Kitty Hawk's visit came immediately before an American spy
plane was downed in the South China Sea, leading to a standoff
between Washington and Beijing. Chinese leaders almost certainly
viewed the port visit as heralding yet another U.S. naval "base"
in the region, this time with direct access to the South China
Sea. But Singapore does indeed appear to be becoming a de facto
U.S. base.

Singapore is not Washington's only potential ally in its quest to
contain China. Australia already has taken its place in the anti-
China security chain; Adelaide earlier this month called on the
U.S. Navy to help fix technical problems with its Collins-class
submarine development program.

Japan is also slowly taking on a greater security role at
Washington's urging. Navy officials tell STRATFOR that Washington
has its sights on other potential allies -- for instance, raising
the prospect of a return to Subic Bay and seeking ties to other
players, such as Thailand and Indonesia.

Though small, Singapore will play a sizeable part in the U.S.
strategy. Boasting an increasingly modern and highly capable
fighting force, working to better integrate its forces with those
of the United States, Australia and other regional militaries,
and located at one of the world's most strategic chokepoints --
both economically and militarily -- it will emerge later this
decade as a front-line outpost in the escalating military
confrontation between the United States and China.
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