NYTimes.com Article: Europe's Chance in the Mideast

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Two articles in today's times suggest that Wallerstein's prediction that Bush's 
policies may erode US power might be correct.  The other is about the 
friendship agreement signed by Russia and China.

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Europe's Chance in the Mideast

By GEOFFREY WHEATCROFT



BATH, England -- On a range of issues from global warming to the
small arms trade, the policy gulf between Europe and America is
noticeably widening. But one potentially important area of
divergence is among the least noticed: the Middle East conflict,
where Europe and America have sharp differences and where, at the
same time, Europe may be set to play an increasingly prominent part.

Many Israelis would be alarmed by this suggestion: Israeli
governments have always been very wary about encouraging any
European role. But the changing political landscape — not
least the Bush administration's uneasy attempt to stand back from
the conflict — could make one necessary.

At present, relations between Israel and European governments are
not at all good. President Bush and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of
Israel may have agreed to differ, but Mr. Sharon's welcome in
Washington was positively effusive compared with the reception he
received in Europe. He was unable even to visit the European Union
headquarters in Brussels because of a Belgian judge's threat to
arrest him on human rights charges. Then came a glacial meeting with
Prime Minister Lionel Jospin in Paris. Afterward, Mr. Sharon said
grimly that the discussion was held "in a very clear manner" and "it
is evident we do not agree at all points."

Not that the Israelis have ever agreed on all points with the
Europeans. Quite apart from the terrible shadow of history, there is
a rooted Israeli belief that most European governments lean toward
the Palestinians. And many Israelis are convinced of a European
media bias in coverage of the conflict.

There is some evidence for that view. On the day after the horrific
Tel Aviv disco bombing, a cartoon appeared on the front page of Le
Monde. Captioned "Kamikazes," it showed two figures side by side,
both with bundles tied in belts round their waists. One was a
Palestinian suicide bomber with sticks of explosive, the other an
Orthodox Jewish settler, whose bundles were buildings labeled
"Colonies." This cartoon could scarcely have appeared in any
mainstream American paper.

No doubt its implication of moral equivalence was unusually sharp.
But there is a prevalent view in Europe, expressed much more often
than in America, that Israeli settlements are one root of the
problem and need to be addressed. Likewise, Paris, London and Berlin
have been more blunt than Washington in condemning assassination of
Palestinian militants and other repressions of the uprising. And
virtually all Europeans, unlike many Israelis, think that Israel
should stick with Yasir Arafat as a negotiating partner, if only for
lack of a better alternative.

Given all of this, prospects for a European role in the Middle East
may not look promising. And yet there is another side to the story.
Israel is in many ways a European country, and relations with Europe
are both intimate and fruitful. Israel is certainly closer to Europe
than America, not just on a map but culturally and commercially.
Israel bears many political marks of its origins under the British
Mandate, and of the various European theorists who helped build the
country.

Most Israeli universities, newspapers and orchestras were created by
European emigrants. The latest fierce row in the country concerned
Daniel Barenboim, an Israeli who has spent much of his career in
Europe, conducting a European orchestra in a performance of the
music of Richard Wagner, most definitely a European composer —
one whose music was adored not only by Hitler but by Theodor Herzl,
founder of political Zionism. On a more popular level, Israeli teams
compete in European soccer tournaments, if not with much recent
success, alas.

What is at least as important (and may be unrecognized in America)
is that Israel imports about twice as much from the E.U. as from the
United States, and American tourists to Israel are outnumbered
almost three to one by Europeans. Israel may resent European
criticisms, but it can't live without European ties.

If Europe is drawn more and more into the Middle East, it won't be
for only economic reasons. Political nature abhors a vacuum, and one
is being created by President Bush's dislike of intimate involvement
in the conflict. There is also the undoubted fact that the whole
process known as "Oslo" — it could be called "Clinton" —
has faltered, and may be near death.

 
Indeed, throughout the Middle East American influence is palpably
weakening. Maybe that was only a matter of time. Washington has long
tried to perform an awkward juggling act, closely supporting Israel
while doing its best to befriend Arab countries and to play the
honest broker. It isn't very surprising if the Arabs at last reject
the idea that America is an even-handed intermediary.

It could be that the relationship between Israel and America has had
counterproductive consequences for Israel. And it might even be
advantageous for Israel to negotiate with the Palestinians through
an alternative intermediary that is considered genuinely neutral.

There could be benefits for Europe also. The European Union may be
an effective free trade area, but it does not, as yet, have an
effective common foreign or defense policy. Henry Kissinger used to
say that he would take "Europe" seriously when it had a telephone
number he could call in a crisis. Might the bitter and intractable
battle in the Holy Land provide the occasion for making Europe a
real, working toll-free number?


http://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/16/opinion/16WHEA.html?ex=996297061&ei=1&en=b26e67447461a0a6

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