An article by Petros Haritatos about
"Invisible Strengths" got me thinking about how weak or strong the
global underdogs actually are. "Global underdogs" could be defined
in two ways - (a) as periphery versus core, or (b) as masses versus elites.
Estimating "strength" is an old habit in political science of the
kind of Hans Morgenthau and Karl Deutsch. There, "power" is
distinguished from "capabilities" ("capabilities"
denoting the raw inputs, usable for "power", e.g., 500
pounds of coffee or 500 soldiers or 500 dollars or 500 experts). Here are
some simple figures about "capabilities" --
A. First World - Rest of
World
(1) Who has the world's nuclear weapons?
First World:_____USA,
France, UK, Israel
Rest of World:___Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine,
China, India, Pakistan
(2) Who has the world's oil
(petroleum)?
Proven reserves 1994
First World_____ 44,294
million bbls - USA, Norway, Canada, UK, Australia
Rest of World___915,940
million bbls - Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait,
Iran,
and 15 (or more) other countries
Ratio of Rest-of-World : First World =
21 : 1
Source= Statesman's Year-Book 1995-96, vol. 132, p.
xxvii
(3) Who has the world's GDP?
Based on PPP
(purchasing power parity valuation, mid-1990s):
First
World_____56%
Rest of world___44%
It is generally believed that this is an 80/20
split (First world 80%, Rest of World 20%). However, the 80/20 figure is
based on U.S. dollar exchange rates, which do not measure the economic
strength of the two groups correctly.
B. Elites - Masses
Crude
estimates for three categories - (a) global elites, (b) national elites, (c)
all other people.
(1) How many "global elites" are
there?
Estimate A:
The annual Davos meetings are
attended by about 1000 "global elites". Assuming that for every
one attending Davos there are 50 not attending, that leads to an estimate of
approximately 50,000 members of the global elite.
Estimate B:
Assuming that the corporations
listed in the "Fortune500" are the top global corporations and
assuming that, in each corporation, there are 100 top executives - that
leads to an estimate of 500 times 100 = 50,000 members of the global
elite.
[for convenience, I will change 50,000 to
60,000 below]
Ratio "global elite": global
population, approximately:
= 60,000 : 6 billion = 60,000 : 6,000,000,000
= 0.001% : 99.999%
i.e. "global elites" constitute one
thousandth of one percent of world population. If it is claimed that the
world is ruled by a global elite, then 99.999 percent of the people are
ruled by 0.001 percent of the people.
(2) How many "national elites" are
there?
Estimate A:
2% of population -
that
leads to a worldwide estimate of 2% of 6 billion=120,000,000=120
million (i.e., all national elites of all countries)
Estimate B:
5% of population-
that leads
to a worldwide estimate of 5% of 6 billion =300 million national elites of
all countries
(3) Proportions
(a) global elites : national elites
=
60,000 : 120,000,000 = 0.05% : 99.95%
or 60,000 : 300,000,000
= 0.02% : 99.98%
If it is claimed that global elites dominate
national elites, then 0.02% of the elites of the world (truly global
section) dominate 99.98% of the elites of the world (national sections).
(b) global elites : national elites :
masses
= 60,000 : 300,000,000 : 6,000,000,000
= 0.001% :
5% : 95%
Limitations
Numeric proportions of
capabilities are interesting, but do not give a full picture of
"power" and the actual or potential relation of
forces.
Posting from: Gernot Kohler 03 May
2001