In his 1980 book, 'The Third Wave' Alvin Toffler divides the elites into
two groups, 'The Super Elites' and the
'Sub-Elites.'
David F. Korten, in the 'Post-Corporate World' notes that 200
people control 51% of the World's Wealth. These people appear
to be the group referred to as the 'Bilderberg Group' - or the
'Super Elites.' In the book, 'The Perfect Future' (Micklewaithe, et al -
2000) the authors write that when the Bilderberg Group meets financial events
follow. In this group appear to be Heads of State, Old Money
interests, etc. -- those that are in charge of investment
allocation.
Toffler refers to the Sub-elites, or corporate TNC managers, as
'the integrators' who operate within the limits that the Super Elites set for
them.
Toffler also writes that '(W)ithin every Second Wave Society,
consequently, a parallel architecture of elites spang up. And--with
local variation--this hidden hierarchy of power was born again after every
crisis or political upheaval. Names, slogans, party labels and
candidates might change; revolutions jmight come and go. New faces might
appear behind the mighty mahogany desks. But the basic architecture of
power remained.'
In reading, 'Rule by Secrecy' by Jim Marrs (2000), and then
following it with 'The Money Men' by Jeffrey Birnbaum (2000), it is
amazing to see the pattern repeated over and over again as different
'societies' were created but the names attached to family
lineage appear in descending order down thru the ages and into today as
Birnbaum reveals the names of those who are the "money men'
of "K" Street in Washington, D.C., who man the CIA, the
foundations and universities, the military-industrial complex, and
are nominated for the Presidency of the U.S.
I am most interested in this subject since I am preparing to write a
book which will include background information on the 'elites' and how their
power is exerted. What I cannot help but wonder, and what Toffler hints
at is that the power of the 'Sub-elites' may now have surpassed that of the
Super Elites. And that the power of the mafia's and cartels, e.g.,
the Chinese Triads, may have joined with the Sub-elites.
An article by Petros Haritatos about "Invisible
Strengths" got me thinking about how weak or strong the global underdogs
actually are. "Global underdogs" could be defined in two ways - (a) as
periphery versus core, or (b) as masses versus elites. Estimating "strength"
is an old habit in political science of the kind of Hans Morgenthau and Karl
Deutsch. There, "power" is distinguished from "capabilities" ("capabilities"
denoting the raw inputs, usable for "power", e.g., 500 pounds of
coffee or 500 soldiers or 500 dollars or 500 experts). Here are some simple
figures about "capabilities" --
A. First World - Rest of
World
(1) Who has the world's nuclear weapons?
First World:_____USA,
France, UK, Israel
Rest of World:___Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine,
China, India, Pakistan
(2) Who has the world's oil
(petroleum)?
Proven reserves 1994
First World_____ 44,294
million bbls - USA, Norway, Canada, UK, Australia
Rest of World___915,940
million bbls - Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait,
Iran,
and 15 (or more) other countries
Ratio of Rest-of-World : First World =
21 : 1
Source= Statesman's Year-Book 1995-96, vol. 132, p.
xxvii
(3) Who has the world's GDP?
Based on PPP
(purchasing power parity valuation, mid-1990s):
First
World_____56%
Rest of world___44%
It is generally believed that this is an 80/20
split (First world 80%, Rest of World 20%). However, the 80/20 figure is
based on U.S. dollar exchange rates, which do not measure the economic
strength of the two groups correctly.
B. Elites - Masses
Crude
estimates for three categories - (a) global elites, (b) national elites, (c)
all other people.
(1) How many "global elites" are
there?
Estimate A:
The annual Davos meetings are
attended by about 1000 "global elites". Assuming that for every one
attending Davos there are 50 not attending, that leads to an estimate of
approximately 50,000 members of the global elite.
Estimate B:
Assuming that the corporations
listed in the "Fortune500" are the top global corporations and assuming
that, in each corporation, there are 100 top executives - that leads to an
estimate of 500 times 100 = 50,000 members of the global elite.
[for convenience, I will change 50,000 to
60,000 below]
Ratio "global elite": global population,
approximately:
= 60,000 : 6 billion = 60,000 : 6,000,000,000
= 0.001%
: 99.999%
i.e. "global elites" constitute one thousandth of one percent
of world population. If it is claimed that the world is ruled by a global
elite, then 99.999 percent of the people are ruled by 0.001 percent of the
people.
(2) How many "national elites" are
there?
Estimate A:
2% of population -
that
leads to a worldwide estimate of 2% of 6 billion=120,000,000=120
million (i.e., all national elites of all countries)
Estimate B:
5% of population-
that leads
to a worldwide estimate of 5% of 6 billion =300 million national elites of
all countries
(3) Proportions
(a) global elites : national elites
=
60,000 : 120,000,000 = 0.05% : 99.95%
or 60,000 : 300,000,000
= 0.02% : 99.98%
If it is claimed that global elites dominate
national elites, then 0.02% of the elites of the world (truly global
section) dominate 99.98% of the elites of the world (national sections).
(b) global elites : national elites :
masses
= 60,000 : 300,000,000 : 6,000,000,000
= 0.001% :
5% : 95%
Limitations
Numeric proportions of
capabilities are interesting, but do not give a full picture of "power" and
the actual or potential relation of forces.
Posting from: Gernot Kohler 03 May
2001