Re: Boles => Grimes on China

Although its dangerous to expect the past to repeat itself, to the degree 
that the world system is cyclical, we would expect the US to face off with 
Europe, not East Asia.  Old hegemons have typically been militarilly eclipsed 
by continental powers whose impressive record at political integration is 
matched by an unimpresive record of economic integration.  This is the story 
of Spain, France, and Germany.  Presently the European Union is the most 
innovative political actor in the world--yet economically it remains a bunch 
of unintegrated nation states lumped together.  New hegemons (which are 
characterized by high levels of economic integration and underdeveloped 
bureaucracies) have not typically fought wars about old hegemons.  In terms 
of repeating patterns, we would expect the US to increasingly look toward 
East Asia as its economic (later military) savior.  But its not necessarilly 
the case that these cycles will mechanically repeat themselves.

Steven Sherman