re predictions

As a comment on the discussion about the likely course the world-system and its hegemon USA in the future --

I find it interesting that predictions in the social sciences may be (a) clearly false, (b) clearly correct - and (c) half correct. Some of the predictions made by some European socialists prior to World War I (one) about likely revolutions in core countries strike me as a case of "half correct" predictions. Of course, there were no major socialist revolutions in the core countries. However, when one looks at Britain and Germany, those predictions were actually half correct.

 

Britain: no socialist revolution, but in the 1930's the old British party system was completely changed. The old Liberal party was smashed at the polls and replaced by the Labour party as one of the two major parties. [ the equivalent in  modern USA would be if one of the major parties would be replaced by Ralph Nader and the Green Party of USA - not a revolution, but a major restructuring]

 

Germany: no socialist revolution, but a right-wing revolution in the 1930s (Nazis).

 

In both cases, the prediction that core countries will experience major restructuring driven by economic immiserization was correct. In Britain, the direction of the restructuring was as predicted (toward the left), but not as violent and far-reaching as predicted. In Germany, the restructuring was violent and far-reaching, but in the opposite political direction from the predicted one.

 

Interesting question: How could those pre-WWI socialists have improved their predictions? (And what could one learn from that for contemporary predictions?)

 

Gernot Kohler