Re: oil and what is to be done

If I could barge in:
I have also been following Campbell, Laherrere and others on impending 
oil crisis, as well as Jay Hanson and others regarding their prognoses 
of a crash of civilisation as we know it.

My hunch is that while we are not facing up to the realities and doing 
some serious medium and longterm planning (except for new fuel-
efficient hybrid vehicles), what we are likely to experience with 
business-as-little-more-than-usual is something akin to 1973 recession, 
which could lead to a world economic depression, as the squeeze will last 
longer than in 1973.

But the 'peak' (plateau) is likely to last 10-15 years during which 
emergency 
measures have time to be implemented.  Natural gas will also cushion 
impact for a decade or so.

The real question is:

Embark on 
- energy conservation programs
- reduce auto dependence through telecommuting, (gradual) urban
restructuring, 
better urban transit
- industrial ecology, cogeneration
- faster development of renewables
- impose a carbon tax (for longterm economic stability as well as climate)
- eliminate subsidies eg of oil industry, private transport

If we don't do this we may be forced to swallow:
- renaissance of nuclear industry with proliferation risks (as plutonium 
is highly likely as fuel source) amongst other risks.
- unconventional oil sands with heavy environmental impact
- drilling in environmentally sensitive areas such as Alaska, Arctic, 
Antarctic, Great Barrier Reef etc
- continued use of coal with associated climate impact
- possible military conflict over remaining oil reserves eg in Central
Asia, or 
even Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq... 

In terms of effect on world capitalist system, I think the Internet is 
probably more significant than the impending oil squeeze.  I see a 
gradual powerful global movement evolving that will probably not 
overthrow the capitalist world system, but redirect it (regulation, 
market instruments, consciousness-raising/shifting values) for the 
greater good.  In that the system may become more accountable and more
democratic (at all levels from structure of a corporation to the community 
as stakeholder, to decision-making between nations in multilateral fora) it 
could be argued that the system will have undergone a major transformation. 
 
(Depends on what criteria one defines the capitalist world system).

Geoff Holland
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At 06:23 PM 06/18/2000 -0700, you wrote:
>Mark-
>
>I just took a look at some of Laherrere's work and other related material
>on the Hubbert Peak and so forth on Jay's site, and I have a question for
>you, given that you focus on the issue of the impending crash of the
>oil-based capitalist world-system:
>
>What is your view of what should be done, and what resources can you
>recommend for the views of others on this question?  Praxis!
>
>What I'm hoping for is something other than "wait for the crisis to become
>severe, and launch an uprising."  I realize it may come to that, but it
>seems altogether preferable to try to forestall that eventuality if at all
>possible.  
>
>(I've never been partial to the old Third International theory of General
>Crisis, although oil running out is not quite the same thing as declining
>rate of profits, I realize.)
>
>Richard Hutchinson
> 
>
>