demographic transition

WSN,

The demographic transition was abstracted from generalized developmental
patterns in Europe. To assume that the DT has universal relevance (i.e.,
that it is a law), one must assume a unilinear conception of societal
development.

Modernization theory has this view, and those international organizations
(UN, etc.) when confronted with "empirical irregularities" in the
demographic transition describe what they see as "different rates" of
transitions. Thus some countries have "not yet completed the transition,"
they suffer from arrested development (probably because their
"traditional" cultural orientations hold them back). 

Unfortunately, in a world-economy with a global division of labor
development is not unilinear within national or regional divisions and so
the demographic transition is probably not an appropriate model.

But it is, like Rostow's "non-communist" theory, a sledgehammer so it
has predictably "took off" among the elite.

Andrew Austin
Knoxville, TN