RE: Kondratieff Wave?

As I understand it, there is nothing in human affairs so predetermined
as something like a law. K-Wave is not a law, it may not work like a
clock-work. 
In the past several hundred years,
we had observed a regular pattern, largely within an economy that is
pretty well nationally prescribed, cycles of rise and fall of growth.

In recent years, however, the predicted pattern has not emerged, and thus
the puzzle as to why not disturbs the minds of impatient scholars.

The basic mechanism is the classic Marxist formula of over production, under

consumption and falling rate of profit.

However, as the nature of the market, as you rightly saw, can change
the dynamics of the cycle. The technique and strategy of 
"exploitation" may also help change the dynamics. More importantly,
new institutions, safety valve mechanisms, and new set of global
institutional alignments can change the picture as well. Lastly, as it
happened
in the past, technological innovations can make the difference, not
necessarily
only at the downturn, but at any turn in changing the shape of the economic
productivity, consumption and profit.

Somewhere, Wallerstein published an article under the heading of
"America: Three Times Blessed." Or something like that. You may find
there some answers to your curiosity. He might have published a couple
of more pieces that may directly or indirectly address this problem.


Quee-Young   Kim
Department of Sociology
University of Wyoming
Kim@uwyo.edu


        ----------
        From:  Anthony S. Alvarez [SMTP:aalvarez@wam.umd.edu]
        Sent:  Tuesday, February 01, 2000 11:18 AM
        To:  WORLD SYSTEMS NETWORK
        Subject:  Kondratieff Wave?


        Would someone be so kind as to explain how Kondratieff Waves operate
to
        lowly a undergraduate? While I recognize that they are "40-60 year
        business cycles" usually divided into an upsurge a-phase and
downtrend
        b-phase, I'm a little foggy as to what the exact mechanisms behind
this
        cycle are. Is it related to the falling rate of profit? Market
        saturation? Technological change? Further, whatever lay at the root
of
        Kondratieff Waves, what makes them cyclical? It seems to me that at
least
        the dimensions I have listed above are historically contingent and
don't
        lend themselves to reiteration that the 'wave' terminology applies.
In my
        mind, the very idea of something being cyclical comes very close to
        'naturalizing' a phenomenon. But, I could be, and probably am, very
        wrong. Any clarifications would be greatly appreciated.

        Anthony S. Alvarez
        University of Maryland, College Park
        Undergraduate in Sociology and Political Science