economic reductionism and WW5

This post on economic reductionism raises an interesting point relevant to
speculation on a possible "World War 3," or "World War 5" in world-system
terms.  There are those who maintain that the growing volume of U.S. trade
with Asia will bring about an Asia-U.S. bloc, based on strictly economic
considerations.  Similarly, a German/EU-Russian bloc can be projected
based on economic integration alone.  So a core war might pit, not the
U.S. against Germany per se, but a Pacific bloc versus an Atlantic
bloc, or in geostrategic terms, the Eurasian Land Power versus the
Rimlands Maritime Power, in a classic rematch with the Pacific bloc
playing the old British role.

BUT, this scenario ignores cultural factors.  Culturally speaking, as Arno
Tausch rightly points out, the web of Atlantic ties is quite strong.  It
is true that right at the moment it is hard to envision the U.S. going to
war with its (militarily subordinate) European allies.  It is also hard to
envision a durable alliance betweeen the U.S. and China, which would be
necessary in the Asia-U.S. bloc scenario, not to mention the Japan-China
alliance!  So, the possibility of U.S.-EU and Asian blocs shouldn't be
ruled out either.

(In all this, I am not assuming that a 2025 core war is inevitable, only
an all-too plausible projection based on past cycles.)

Tausch's discussion of Russia, China and other non-core powers as current
targets of U.S. military strategy is one thing, but relevant for the short
term.  In the medium term, the conflict among core powers is likely to
reassert itself.  So, the race between the Old (nationally based capital),
and the New (the trend toward some form of world state, whether capitalist
or socialist).

RH