where the real conflicts emerge

Russia: Turkey Challenges Leadership Role In Caspian Region
By Michael Lelyveld 
As fears of instability spread through the Caspian region, Turkey is
pressing its leadership role. But its initiatives may bring it increasingly
into conflict with Russia, which would likely resent any trespass on its
power. 
Boston, 24 January 2000 (Radio Free Europe) -- It was perhaps only a matter
of time before some Russian interests would come to regard Turkey as a
threat in the Caucasus and Central Asia. That appears to be the point of a
front-page article in the Russian newspaper "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on Friday.

The daily, owned by Boris Berezovsky, reacted strongly to a Turkish
statement last week calling for creation of a cooperative group to include
countries with Turkic populations. Abdulhaluk Cay, a state minister in
charge of relations with the ethnically-linked nations of the region,
compared the proposed organization to the Arab League. 
But "Nezavisimaya gazeta" characterized the plan as a Turkish challenge to
Russia, charging that Cay had called Moscow "too weak" to oppose the
formation of such a group. In fact, Cay's interview with the Reuters news
agency on January 19 made no reference to Russian weakness. Instead, he was
quoted as saying that such an association could be formed even if Russia
objected, because of the strong historical ties among Turkic countries. 
"They will get used to it," Cay said, according to Reuters. "They have to.
We governed the Ottoman Empire for centuries. But today in our relations
with ex-Ottoman states we do not act like the big brother," he said. 
Cay may have exaggerated the reach of the Ottoman Empire, which even at its
height in the 16th century did not cover the entire Caucasus or include
Central Asia. But the point of citing Turkey's modern-day ethnic influence
in the Caspian region was clearly to draw a contrast with Russia's waning
power. Ankara also sees itself as a unifying force at a time when the war in
Chechnya threatens to break the Caucasus apart. 
Cay's comments followed a less inflammatory call by President Suleyman
Demirel for a "Caucasus stability pact," which was also a reaction to the
chaos in Chechnya. Although Russia is technically welcome to join both
initiatives, Turkey has made itself the driving force. 
Even without the strained interpretation by "Nezavisimaya gazeta," it is
little wonder that Russia would view Turkey's proposals as a challenge to
its position. Instead of bringing control to the region with a short and
overwhelming war to stamp out terrorism, Moscow has heightened fears across
several borders. The Turkish proposals follow concerns over refugee problems
and Russian charges of aid to the rebel Chechens. 
It is ironic that Russia's attempt to safeguard the unity of its federation
has proved instead to be a divisive force, not only in the region but also
in its relations with the West. Perhaps in reaction, Turkey is seeking to
provide a new orientation, if not a unifying force. 
"Nezavisimaya gazeta" was quick to pick apart the logic of the Turkish
proposals, claiming that "Armenia may become the first victim" of the
attempt to create a "Turkish commonwealth." But the appeal to historic
hatreds and fears may only add to the divisiveness that has already opened
the door for Turkish ambitions. 
The remarkable recent changes in Turkey's external relations could soon make
it a more logical gateway to the Caspian region than Russia can be. Beyond
ethnicity, the most obvious link is the thread of petroleum pipelines that
is slowly forming between the Caspian countries and Turkey. These will
eventually provide export routes for the region's oil and gas, returning
hard currency to countries that must often settle for Russian bartered
goods. 
Turkey's position as a large energy-consuming country, drawing supplies from
both Russia and the Caspian, is now being regarded as a source of influence
and strength, rather than weakness. This in itself is a remarkable change in
Ankara's position relative to Moscow. 
But even beyond energy and pipelines, Turkey's recent warming toward Greece
suggests that it can play a more important role in east-west linkages. Last
week's series of accords between the two countries and the visit to Ankara
by Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou raise hope that relations may
continue to improve. 
Turkey's easing toward its westward rival has smoothed its way toward
membership in the European Union. That in turn may raise hopes for countries
with Turkic ties that see their future in drawing closer not only to NATO
and its members but also to Europe as a trading partner. 
If Turkey is representing itself as a bridge to survival, security and
prosperity, it is only because the protections of Russia have failed. While
it is preoccupied with war, Moscow appears heedless to the damage it has
caused, both within and beyond its borders. By sowing divisions, Russia may
harvest a future in which it can no longer be a unifying power.