Re: KOSOVO: Military Status (by Stratfor)

Peter Grimes wrote:
> 
> List,
>         The following analysis was forwarded to me by our prolific friend,
> Andre Gunder Frank:
> =======================================================================
> 
> Date: Sun, 18 Apr 1999 23:26:35 -0500 (CDT)
> From: alert@stratfor.com
> To: alert@stratfor.com
> Subject: Weekly Analysis -- April 19, 1999
> 
> ______________________________________
> 
> Stratfor's FREE Kosovo Crisis Center -
> http://www.stratfor.com/kosovo/crisis/
> The most comprehensive coverage of the
> Kosovo Crisis anywhere on the Internet
> ______________________________________
> 
> STRATFOR's
> Global Intelligence Update
> April 19, 1999
> 
> Weekly Analysis:
> Understanding the War in Kosovo in the Fourth Week
> 
> Summary:
> 
> The war in Kosovo grew out of fundamental miscalculations in
> Washington, particularly concerning the effect Russian support
> had on Milosevic's thinking.  So long as Milosevic feels he has
> Russian support, he will act with confidence.  If Russia wavers,
> Milosevic will have to deal. With the air war stalemated and
> talks of ground attack a pipe dream, diplomacy remains NATO's
> best option.  That option depends on Russian cooperation.
> However, Russian cooperation will cost a great deal of money.
> That brings us to the IMF, the Germans, and former Russian Prime
> Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, who is Russia's new negotiator on
> Serbia, a leading economic reformer and a good friend of the
> West.

It is difficult to see why someone who had global intelligence would
call this bit of opinion an _analysis_ except by perverting the
language. I assume that analyses begin with the facts and then present
an interpretation of those facts. The first item that is not a fact is
that the "air war is stalemated." On the one hand, as I indicated
earlier, it is presumptuous to call NATO's action a war. It would be
more correct to call it a disciplinary action. On the other hand, the
idea that the interaction involving airplanes is stalemated is a
fiction. In chess, a stalemate refers to an agreement among the players
that there is no solution. NATO certainly does not agree that there is
no solution. Everyday now, NATO seems to be doing something new in the
hope that it will weaken Milosovic's resolve. Whether the next new thing
it does has an effect on Milosovic is at least problematic. The writer
may feel that it will have no effect. However, the proper way to say
this is to defend his opinion about this, not to conceal his belief with
a declaration that there is currently a stalemate. The writer claims
that "Milosovic is quite content to absorb the current level of air
attacks." Perhaps. But the current level is changing every day. Thus,
the writer's claim is not relevant to his declaration that there is a
stalemate

The second item is the notion that ground attacks are a pipe dream. This
is certainly not a fact. But let us examine whether there are grounds
for believing this. To support his view, the writer presents a summary
of a more complex "analysis" for which he provides a reference. Among
the points made in the summary are:

1. Only Albania will permit an invasion from its soil.

2. An invasion from Albania is costly and cannot achieve its objective
because the roads are insufficient to support a sufficiently large
invasion force.

3. The result could be a quagmire like Vietnam.

Aside from the point about an invasion being costly, which appears
irrelevant in light of the willingness so far of NATO leaders to incur
costs, the other claims are at least problematic. First, deals can be
made with Macedonia, Hungary, Romania, Greece, and Austria. Or threats
can be sent. Second, both Serbs and the invaders face the roads problem
and, since NATO maintains air superiority and a dominating resource
advantage, the Serb problem will surely be greater. Third the idea that
intelligent people with knowledge of history would allow themselves to
be put into a position that is similar to that of the North Vietnamese
is difficult to imagine. Vietnam today is slowly moving toward
capitalism and, one expects, democracy. Why? Because the people starved
under communism and isolation. The only reason why Milosovic and his
cronies might risk this is to keep themselves from being executed or
jailed. 


-- 
Pat Gunning, Sultan Qaboos University, Oman
Web pages on Subjectivism, Democracy, Taiwan, Ludwig von Mises,
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