Re: long waves

On Tue, 19 Jan 1999, Hasmet Uluorta wrote:

> Friends,
> 
> Hello.  I have become increasingly interested in long wave cycles.  However, I am a unfamiliar with the various debates and approaches.  In order to address this deficiency, I have volunteered to focus on the topic for a semester course I am taking.  Could someone suggest some reading material that would aid me and get me started?  I thank you in advance for your assistance.    
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers, 
> 
> Hasmet Uluorta
> hasmetu@yorku.ca
> 


Here are two suggestions:

Long Waves of Capitalist Development
	Ernest Mandel (1980)

and

Long Cycles
	Joshua Goldstein (1988).

Jay Forrester of MIT developed an economic model that predicted 50-year
cycles based on disequilibrium in the capital goods market (I just read in
an article by Donella Meadows), but I don't have a citation for his
research.

Goldstein uses long cycles as the independent variable to predict the
outbreak of wars between core powers in the world system.


Richard Hutchinson
Department of Sociology
University of Arizona