Gunder's discussion and summary of the collapse is informative.
One sociologist, however, made a similar prediction, Randall Collins, in
a paper first given in the early 80s, then as a chapter in Weberian Soc.
in 1986. His saga is told in a paper with David Waller, including an
analysis about why the major sociological camps missed the prediction.
His comments on WST are, in this light interesting. TO summarize: too
many WSTers were to enamored of the left to be overly critical, so they
missed an "obvious" prediction. Interestingly, as I recall his argument,
COllins did say that of all sociological theories [except his on
geopolitics] WST SHOULD have predicted the collapse. Other theories
would not lead to such a conclusion so they would not have made it in any
case.
Collins's argument, follows his "no intervening heartland rule" and the
notion that overextension in foreign wars which are lost delegitimizes
and destabiles the regime. It was only a far more robust economy in his
view that kept the US from a similar collapse after Vietnam.
His argument and story are much richer than this summary..
Relative to Gunder's story, what is interesting is that all the
Sovietologists thought he was nuts! While Gunder's analysis is, in myy
view more complete, both share close attention to international context
as a shaper of internal dynamics.
the references are:
Collins, Randall. 1986. Weberian Sociological Theory.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Collins, Randall and David Waller. 1992. What Theories
Predicted the State Breakdown and Revolution in Soviet Bloc?"
Pp. 31-47 in The Transformation of European Communist
Societies, Research in Social Movements, Conflicts and Change, edited
by Louis Kreisberg and David R. Segal, Vol. 14. Greenwich, CT:
JAI Press. Orig. 1991 paper pres nted at American
Sociological Association meeting, Cincinatti, August.
tom
Thomas D. [tom] Hall
thall@depauw.edu
Department of Sociology
DePauw University
100 Center Street
Greencastle, IN 46135
765-658-4519
HOME PAGE:
http://www.depauw.edu/~thall/hp1.htm