The Quebec Election is now over and the Parti Quebecois has been re-elected.
This by no means signals that there will be another referendum. Quebec
voters are some of the smartest and most strategic voters anywhere. They
didn't want the federalist Liberals (Parti Liberal du Quebec (PLQ)) to win
because they see that the PQ's threat of holding another referendum is
probably Quebec's best negotiating tool for getting a better deal out of
Conferderation and receiving more money and power from the federal
government. The PQ doesn't have a mandate to hold a referendum any time soon
based on several factors:
1) The results of the election
30 novembre 1998
TOTAL DES ÉLECTEURS INSCRITS
Parti libéral du Québec/
Québec Liberal Party 1 771 858 votes 43,55%
48 seats
*Parti québécois 1 744 240 votes 42,87% 75 seats* =
Majority Government
Action démocratique
du Québec/
Équipe Mario Dumont 480 636 votes 11,81%
1 seat
Source:
Directeur général des élections du Québec, 1998
http://www.dgeq.qc.ca/anglais/
As one can see the federalist Liberals received a higher popular vote than
the sovereigntist PQ. The fact that the PQ won 75 seats forming the
government while coming second in popular vote shows the drawbacks of a
first-past-the-post electoral system.
2) Quebecers do not want a referendum. Polls show that almost 70-80% of
Quebecers do not want another referendum at this time. They want the
Bouchard government to focus on the economy and improving the healthcare
system and the social safety net in general. People are sick of the talk of
another referendum.
3)The Federal Liberal Party, the government led by Prime Minister Jean
Chretien, tops the polls in Quebec at 46% compared to 40% for the
sovereigntist Bloc Quebecois (a separate party, but very similar to the
Parti Quebecois). PM Jean Chretien, loathed by sovereigntists and the
Quebec media elite, enjoys a reasonable level of public approval in Quebec,
around 50 % support. He is staunchly federalist and against nationalism.
Source of polls: Angus Reid Group, CROP, Leger and Leger, Zogby Int'l
Original passage:
SOVEREIGNISTS IN LOVE WITH THE AMERICAN MODEL
Quebec's PQ worn out by power
by Christophe Wargny
The debate in Quebec over sovereignty is never-ending. As long as
the issue remains unresolved, it will continue to eclipse all
others, both in Ottawa and in the province of Quebec. Its prime
minister, Lucien Bouchard, has just announced an early election
and, if the ruling Parti québécois wins, there could be a new
referendum on self-determination; the last one was narrowly
defeated in 1995. But if he carries on with economic policies as
conventional as those of the federal government, he will have a
hard time convincing the electorate that a sovereign Quebec is
desirable.
Translated by Stuart Anthony Stillitz