This is a brief follow-up to my email message, Oil in the
World-System, which was submitted to WSN through Christopher
Chase-Dunn's address.
As has been illustrated in the last few energy postings,
there is great debate about the engineering and commercial
viability of various alternative energy technologies.
According to my own understanding -- again based upon studies
from such organizations as the World Bank, the International
Energy Agency, the World Energy Council, and the US Energy
Information Administration (I hate always quoting them, but their
mainstream legitimacy sometimes serves a useful purpose), as well
as publications from the Worldwatch Institute and other NGOs -- a
cluster of alternative energy technologies could indeed provide a
viable basis for a more environmentally-sustainable, socially-
equitable international energy system. In transporation systems, the
crucial role of petroleum could be replaced by hydrogen-powered
fuel cells. If this hydrogen was itself produced via solar-powered
facilities (which is now being done in pilot plants), this would
provide a large-scale, environmentally-sustainable new energy system
which could be diffused throughout the world-economy. Meanwhile, a
combination of wind, solar, and small scale hydroelectric systems
could generate increasing shares of electricity in both developed and
developing nations.
The unpublished World Bank report I refered to in my first posting
(entitled Fuel for Thought: A New Environmental Strategy for the
Energy Sector, draft printed in June 1998 with final version due out
later this year) contains one scenario in which, given adequate
political, commercial, and social support, a cluster of renewable
energy technologies actually surpasses petroleum in providing world
commerical energy requirements by late in the next century.
There is of course nothing guaranteeing that this kind of scenario
will come to pass. Difficult political, commercial, and social
hurdles must be overcome in order to even begin moving in the right
direction. And who knows: perhaps the true reality is that
constructing an environmentally-sustainable energy foundation
for the world-economy is impossible (as has been suggested in a
couple of WSN postings). But I personally encourage all concerned
people, including serious critics of contemporary capitalism (as I
consider myself to be) to push for the wider diffusion of
alternative energy systems NOW, even if the overall global
energy trajectory is ultimately unknown. Otherwise, what are we
to do, watch as the world-system goes up in smoke and shout
"I told you so!" as we cough ourselves to death?
Cordially, Bruce
|--------------------------|
| Bruce Podobnik |
| Department of Sociology |
| Johns Hopkins University |
| email: podobnik@jhu.edu |
|--------------------------|