> I think Judy Kessler must be commended for bringing up the subject of the
> euro. It is probably the most important single development in the world
> system in the years that have passed since 1989 and for several years to
> come, barring a world financial crash - in my opinion, a very unlikely
> development.
>
> European Monetary Union is bound to have substantial repercussions in
> several fields: on the European integration process itself, the most
> interesting and successful initiative taken by capitalist nation-states in
> the last 50 years; on the questions of democracy and social justice in one
> of the largest and most advanced regions in the world; on the whole
> restructuring of the architecture of the system of international
> relations.
>
> In my modest opinion, the euro is going to be successful. It is a
> political decision based on historical precedents with a clear-cut
> economic rationality. It is supported not only by the elites, but also by
> broad sections of European populations, with the exception of the three
> countries who are staying out and Germany (although the tendency in the
> last one has recently turned in favor). It will reinforce the
> supranational tendencies still struggling to overcome the
> government-centric tendencies inside the European Union by the creation of
> a powerful supranational and autonomous institution, the European Central
> Bank. In this sense, it might be the model for all future integration
> processes and for new forms of political organization, transcending the
> nation-state.
>
> It will reinforce the single European market and bring benefits to
> European enterprises, both transnational and medium and small size ones.
> If this will in turn benefit other sectors of European societies will
> depend on the way the social and political organizations react towards it.
> But since the convergence process has placed very harsh conditions on the
> lowest level sectors of European societies, my guess is that we will see,
> as we have seen already in Amsterdam during last year's summit and in the
> British and French elections, a resurgence of democratic and social
> democratic forces which will endeavor to protect the European welfare
> state and its accomplishments. Democracy could be reinforced by this
> process.
>
> The monetary union will make it more difficult for the East European
> states to enter the Union. The accession negotiation process can indeed
> become a very protracted one.
>
> Europe's role in the world will be enhanced both by the economic benefits
> that monetary union will mean for its enterprises and by the fact that its
> integration process will be followed and taken as a model for other
> regionalization processes.
>
> The main loser in the monetary union project will be the US, because it
> will have to deal with a new foreign currency which will challenge the
> hegemony of the dollar, while the European Central Bank will become a
> counterweight to the Fed. With this gained financial autonomy, Europe will
> feel more free to adopt its own foreign policy initiatives, like, for
> example, the Euro-Latin American summit planned for 1999, with the
> participation of Cuba, by the way. This will be in stark contrast to the
> II Summit of the Americas in Santiago last month, from which Cuba was
> unjustly excluded, basically because the United States did not want it.
>
> For Latin America and the Caribbean, which suffers from the imperialistic
> tendencies of the US, the news is welcome. We would like to see a European
> superpower counterbalancing the unipolar environment we have to deal with.
> Will Europe finally have a common foreign and security policy clearly
> differentiated from the American one? That is a difficult question, but
> the euro will certainly help the process.
>
> Carlos Alzugaray
> Assistant Professor,
> Instituto Superior de Relaciones Internacionales,
> La Habana, Cuba.
> Telephone: (53-7) 22-2571 & 23-5097.
> Fax: (53-7) 29-0683.
> Email: calzugaray@minrex.gov.cu
>
>