Message from Arno Tausch
Let me further clarify my answer to AGF's suggestions and questions. (I
hope my answer comes out in a technically acceptable fashion. If you have
problems, print it in Courier 10 or 8, or Times Roman 10 or 8 point font.)
The turning points in the long waves between the ascents and decline phases
(B-phases) were always the beginnings of political decay in the region of
Eastern Europe as well, while the ascent phases were associated with
authoritarian modernization; time-lags between the Western cycle and the
Eastern semi-periphery and periphery have to be admitted. The
decisive-kairos-years are:
1509
1539
1575
1621
1689
1756
1835/42
1884
1933
1982
Source: our own compilations from Goldstein and our own data
interpretations after 1740, our own calculations based on Goldstein. It
should be recalled, that there is another tradition - based on Braudel - to
view the cycle, that begins in 1689, as ending in 1747, to be followed by a
1747 - 1790 cycle, and a 1790 - 1848 cycle (for a debate about these
issues, see especially Amin, 1997).
The logic of the Kondratieff waves from 1756 onwards in the tradition,
based mainly on Bornschier, are given as follows:
social process cycle 1756-1835/41
basic project defeudalization
prosperity reform compulsory education,
conscription; American and
French Revolution;
Joseph II (Austria)
mid-cycle conflict wars of the French Revolution,
Napoleonic wars
Poland: 1807 Duchy of Warsaw
technological change
basic industrial steam engine (end 18th century)
projects 'Spinning Jenny' (J. Stargreave, 1770)
new technologies steam locomotive 'Puffing Billy'
emerging during (W. Hadley, 1813)
prosperity re-
cession
Unresolved problem freedom of association
crisis of the model revolution 1830
Poland: rebellion 1830/31
international regime
A-phase British naval
dominance (George III)
B-phase 'congress of Vienna'-regime
dominant economic
theory A. Smith, 1776
political economy of
world system D. Ricardo, 1817
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social process cycle 1835/42-83 1884-1932 1933-81
basic project freedom of market enlargement welfare
and enterprise of participa- state,
tion corporatism
prosperity reform freedom of asso- social secu- educational
ciation rity, parlia- reform,
mentarism civil
rights,
emancipation
of women
mid-cycle conflict wars and civil Eastern Europe: Vietnam war,
wars Revolution world student
Poland: revolution 1905 rebellion
1863/64 1968
strikes,
terrorism
Polish
Winter 1970
technological change
basic industrial railway, steel, oil,
inputs and steamship electricity, synthetics,
technological electric automobile
projects motor
new technologies steel petrochemicals chips
emerging during
prosperity re-
cession
unresolved prob-
lem enlargement relationship basic income
of participation capital, la- environment
bour, state unequal
exchange
crisis of the
model revolution revolution contestation
1871 1917 of the model
Poland: Poland: from 1968
socialist strikes onwards
movement peasant
1880s uprisings Poland:
1936/37 Summer 1980
international regime
A-phase liberal mercantilism Bretton
world trade Woods
B-phase -"- hypermercan- neo-
tilism protectio-
nism
dominant eco-
nomic
theory J. St. Mill, A. Marshall, J.M. Keynes,
1848 1890 1936
political economy
of
world system K. Marx, 1867 R. Hilferding, K. Polanyi,
1910 1944
The danger is of course, that the Cold-War structure will be substituted by
a new power rivalry between the former members of the winning coalition of
World War II:
Hegemonic wars in the world system from 1495 onwards
Role in War Thirty Years War Napoleonic WW I+II
losing hegemonic
contender Hapsburgs France Germany
new hegemony Netherlands Britain USA
newly emerging
challenger: eco-
nomically deci-
mated member of
winning coalition France Germany China+
Russia
past
contender for
systemic hegemony,
joining the war
effort of the
winning coalition Sweden Hapsburgs France
Portugal
The former hegemonic contenders slowly slide into an acceptance of their
status in the international system. The real power struggle erupts already
soon after the great hegemonic war, and through the ups and downs of the
history of the system evolves slowly into the hegemonic challenge. Seen in
such a way, not 1989, but Korea and Vietnam could become rather the
benchmarks of the future W-structure of conflict in the international
arena. For the foreign policies of the European Union, it is also important
to notice the following tendency: German-Russian alliances tend to happen
during depressions, and they break up during the economic upswings of the
world system, when, especially during waning hegemonies, re-colonization
phases set it (Amin, 1997, partially based on Bergesen):
Khol + Gorbi/Boris 1985 ff.
Rapallo 1922
Bismarck's Three Emperor Alliance 1873
Holy Alliance 1815
Alliance Russia-Germany 1764
Nordic War 1700-1721
The relationship of the Kondratieff and Kuznets cycles with Russian history
is the following:
Reforms
KONDRATIEFF Perestroika, Lenin's NEP,
OR KUZNETS Great Reforms 1861,
DOWNSWING Katharinas Assembly 1775
Nobility's Victory 1730,
Split of the State Church 1653,
Boris Godunow 1598-1605
Repressive Modernization
KONDRATIEFF Joseph Stalin,
OR KUZNETS Imperialistic Expansion
UPSWING and Repressive Industria-
lization at the end of 19. th century
Nikolas the
Gendarme of Europe,
Elisabeth's expansionist
policy,
Peter the Great,
Michael III,
Iwan the Terrible
Reform Repression
<----------------------------------------------------------------->
1985 'Gorbi' <--------------> 1928 Stalin
57 Years
64 Years 47 Years
1921 NEP <--------------> Alexander III
40 Years
60 Years 56 Years
1861 Great Reforms <--------------> Nikolas I 1825
36 Years
86 Years 84 Years
1775 Constituent <--------------> Elisabeth's expansionist rule
Assembly 34 Years 1741
45 Years 52 Years
1730 Victory of <--------------> Peter I 1689
Nobility 41 Years
77 Years 76 Years
Church Split 1653<--------------> Michael III 1613
40 Years
55 Years 48 Years
Boris Godunow 1598 <--------------> Iwan's 'Oprichina' 1565
33 Years
Average periods of Russian history:
Perestroika <--------------> authoritarian modernization
40 Years
64.5 Years 60.5 Years
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