AGF responds to Arno Tausch only to say
1. I do not disoute what you say about Kuznetgs cycles, because I
did/do not discuss them.
2. I do dispute what you say about Kondratieff cycles, though
3. I have some doubts myself and was just sdaying to my wife Nancy that
maybe the K data are wrong and or wrongly interpreted, since some
disconfirm my hypothesis and therefore unsettle my theory, which is not
nice, eg:
4.My hypothesis was that up-phases in long cuycles of social movements
ocurr in the down phases of the Kondratieffs. That turned out to be
true for the 1816-48 K down, and the 1967- K down, but the otehr big SM
up was in 1890-1913 which was supposedly a K up. so
5. Can YOU help me and CONFirm my SM up=econ down thesis, at least for
the period before WWI?
thanks
gunder
On Wed, 26 Nov 1997,
Austrian Embassy wrote:
> Date: Wed, 26 Nov 1997 11:44:22 +0100
> From: Austrian Embassy <austria@it.com.pl>
> To: WORLD SYSTEMS NETWORK <wsn@csf.colorado.edu>
> Subject: Asian melt-down and the long cycle dating game
>
> Dear Andre Gunder and folks,
>
> A.G., you are right (parts of Asia will strongly recover) but you are wrong
> on one major point - the Kondratieff cycle dating game. I have very strong
> empirical convictions about it, based on Joshua Goldstein's data series
> (1988) about the growth of industrial production in the (industrialised)
> world. Submit these data to the calculation of incremental yearly growth
> rates, and apply the multivariate EXCEL polynomial analysis, you arrive at
> the startling result that there are indeed very strong Kuznets cycles (6th
> order polynomial expressions), to be dated (R^2 given in %)
>
> 1741-56 23.5%
> 1756-74 36.1%
> 1774-1793 34.8%
> 1793-1812 39.7%
> 1812-1832 16.4%
> 1832-62 25.7%
> 1862-85 36.3%
> 1885-1908 56.2%
> 1908-32 44.2%
> 1932-58 19.1%
> 1958-75 68.8%
> 1975-97 66.0% (this is based on UN and IMF data, since Joshua's series
> ends in 1975)
>
> These are calculations, based on the original data without any moving
> averages. So Chris Chase Dunn is right all along: there are very strong
> Kuznets cycles.
>
> Secondly, you have to control for the very short term Kitchins, in order to
> measure your Kondratieffs. So I applied to the same data series 5-year
> moving averages, and you get the
> following Kondratieffs (6th order polynomial expressions, based on EXCEL):
>
>
> 1756-1832 R^2 30.8%
> 1832-1885 9.2%
> 1885-1932 50.5%
> 1932-1982 40.3%
>
>
> My dating scheme by and large corresponds to that of our friend Volker
> Bornschier in Zurich, whose recent book on Western society (Transaction,
> the German original dates back 1988, but has been reworked and enlarged for
> the English edition) is a must for all of you who are interested in that
> kind of questions.
>
> The major error of some approaches is to mix up the Kuznets cycle low of
> around 1908 with a Kondratieff low. Mandel, Joshua Goldstein and many
> others date their Kondratieff low at around 1890 or somewhere, so they
> don't get the uopswing out of 1885 and the downswing in the 1930s properly
> into focus. Bornschier has convincingly shown I
> think the technological and societal factors that distinguish the 1870s and
> early 1880s as well as the 1930s as a Kondratieff cycle low.
>
> What is the beef, then? Major disturbances but no Kondratieff crash in
> Asia; perhaps also an Arrighi process where some swimmers (China) get their
> heads out of the flood by
> dumping others (Malaysia etc., those with a secular negative current
> account in the Amir sense) down, with the stability of world capitalism as
> a three-layer systems remaining intact (here I strictly follow our friend
> Giovanni).
>
> Kind regards around the world,
>
> Yours humbly Arno Tausch from Warsaw
>
> PS more of that in my graphs that you can find in my WSN Archive network
> article on Transnational Integration etc.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Andre Gunder Frank
University of Toronto
96 Asquith Ave Tel. 1 416 972-0616
Toronto, ON Fax. 1 416 972-0071
CANADA M4W 1J8 Email agfrank@chass.utoronto.ca
Some Home/Web Pages:
http://www.chass.utoronto.ca:8080/~agfrank/gunder97.html
http://csf.colorado.edu/wsystes/archive/bios/gunder/gunder97cd.html
http://csf.colorado.edu/authors
gopher://csf.colorado.edu/11/psn/authors/frank.gunder
gopher://csf.colorado.edu/11/wsystems.pubs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~