Re: warfare scenario for XXI

Thu, 10 Apr 1997 16:29:36 -0700 (PDT)
mike shupp (

On Wed, 9 Apr 1997, Nikolai S. Rozov wrote:

> i have a scenario of probable warfare in future 15-30 years based on
> generalizations of geopolitical behavior of both world-imperial (pre-1945
> Germany and Japan, Russia and China) and core-of-world-economy powers (UK,
> then USA in Crimean War, WWI and WWII)

I find it difficult to imagine future US (or UK) administrations
going along with the sort of fractionation of Russia you foresee.
There was always lip service paid to the idea of breaking Latvia,
Lithuania, and Estonia from the USSR, to be sure, but I doubt
that anyone in a position to affect US policy ever seriously
expected or desired the kind of break up that occured with the
demise of the Soviet Union. It sets a bad precedent after all,
and the US fought a fairly serious civil war in the 1860's to
preserve its unity.

I could easily imagine the West going along with a breakup of
China, however, with the rationale that nations with populations
of 1+ billion are potentially troublesome.

Mike Shupp
California State University, Northridge
Graduate Student, Dept. of Anthropology