Dear Daniel,
What I find extremely interesting about your facts is the
implicit way in which you refer to Eurasian sequentialisation of
events in a way that implies a systemic relationship across Eurasia.
Secondly, I like your emphasis on underlying economic motives whether
they be conquest of new tax areas or the simultaneous control of land
and sea long distance trade routes after political unification in
China. This sort of question has a long history going back to F.
Teggart of course, but your ideas on disease are interesting as
a factor influencing the demise of the first Byzantine empire and
Sassanid Persia. Presumably it was not just manpower/labour shortage
that ensued from a disease calamity demographically speaking, but we
might assume that this was accompanied by very serious economic
weakening, perhaps especially in the urban economy. In this
framework, the rise of Islam can be understood within the context of
a more general economic crisis, in which the disease/demographic
element is part and perhaps more symptomatic than causal? In any
event, I would add that the sophistication of state formation among
the Franks was fairly primitive compared to what took place in the
major states eastwards in Eurasia, so I agree that the achievements
of the Carolingians are too often distorted. As you note, the more
central action took place with the quick consolidation of the Arab
empire/caliphate and the Tang consolidation in East and Central Asia-
followed by their subsequent clash in CEntral Asia, Talas, etc. To
this backdrop, events in Western Farnkish Europe were a mere side
show, though not, as before, entirely isolated from Eurasian wide
rhythms , something Frank and I have tried to point out, among
others. As a final note, I hope you have corresponded with W.H.
McNeill in Colebrook Connecticutt on these ideas about disease and
the issue of "ascent and decline" on a Eurasian scale. He is
quite active. HOpe this reply was of interest. I am currently
working on a book which includes modeling the historical development
of the world economic system. I hope we communicate in the future.
Yours,
B. K. Gills
Newcastle University
UK