Their are a plethora of positions regarding theories of long term economic
cycles and from what I have gathered, also very little consensus regarding the
whole issue. It seems that we have much work to do before we can truly come to
grips with what exactly the k-wave is created by and consequently its
historical trajectory. And within WST some scholars are arguing that they see
an even longer cycle.
As part of their research advocating the existence of a 5000 year World System
Gunder Frank and Barry Gills have traced back what they refer to as a World
System Rhythm. I'm pretty sure most of you are already familiar with this
notion so I'll just quickly review the basics to set the framework for my
point/question.
Frank and Gills argue that a complete cycle is composed of an "A" and a "B"
phase each lasting roughly 250 years. They have traced this WS-Rhythm through
the rise and decline of "interlinking hegemonies"; civilizations connected
through trade and production processes which seem to simultaneously rise and
fall, deveolp and crumble...cyclically since 2700 BCE.
The more implicit part of the whole notion is that this rhythm is actually a
very long term economic cycle; driven and delimited by the process of
accumulation.
My first questinn is actually a request to hear from anyone who has read
anything else that might support or refute Frank and Gills claim to a World
System Rhythm.
I was also wondering just what other people think about the theoretical
validity of this concept. Is there a material way to validate such a
thesis...if not how should we test it? Or is testing necessary at all, perhaps
it is self evident through a reading of world historical records and
literature? Is it such a useful theory that we don't need to test it?
The whole idea would appear to be quite significant if it could be proved, the
potential to shed light on our current historical trajectory especially excites
me. However, this doesn't seem to be that easy of a task when you consider the
divergence of opinion regarding the much shorter k-waves. Methodologically,
how can we refute or validate the existence of a very long term World System
Rhythm? Is it better thought of as a philosophy of history? More questions
than answers...
Regards,
Christian Harlow
UC Santa Cruz
harlowc@tidepool.com