On Fri, 28 Jun 1996, A. Gunder Frank wrote:
> In re Salvatore's answer:
> I happen to be aon a K long wave, but that question need not be settled
> to discuss the question about recessin/depression that S B raised and
> still discusses. The data "speak for themselves" on recent times.
> and of course even in K terms if the B started some time ago, that is no
> reasons why it should not turn down even more lately. after all the
> previous B sarted in 1913, or some say later, and the depression was not
> till the 30s! but never mind the K. the question is whether the good
> ol days continued past 1973 or not. S says yes, I say no, ...
There is an element of this that might be a semantic dispute. In
a story of an endogenous cycle that depends on some kind of 'saturation'
or 'playing out' of a given growth regime, there will be the stage after
the signs of the growth regime having played itself out will appear (cf.
"The Great U-Turn" for additional arguments that this set in on or around
1973), and the succeeding downturn. Call that phase "the end of the
upturn", and the post WWII upturn *did not* end in the early 70's; call it
"the beginning of the downturn", and the post WWII upturn may well have
ended in the early 1970's. And current reporting is typically not based
on such a long frame of reference, so then-current US perspective, for
example, on the US 'roaring twenties' tended to omit income inequalities
and the dismal performance of, for example, the UK in its fight to
restore the pre-WWI sterling / gold conversion. Just as...
> ... SB should take acount of HOW Reaganomics kept not only the US
> but the whole west afloat during the 80s, ...
Don't forget the Latin American debt crisis, and the way that the
*real* losses of US banks in their speculative lending backed by the
prospective export performance of Latin American countries were in part
covered by a draconian increase in the share of Latin American export
earnings dedicated to debt repayment rather than to current trade. US
Banks and Latin American elites bet on the ability of Latin American
countries to service debt, and when exports to the US went south and
interest rates on the loans went north ( on a graph, not in a geographical
sense ;) a substantial portion of the burden of the failed speculation
was placed on the back of Latin American consumers.
Virtually,
Bruce R. McFarling, Newcastle, NSW
ecbm@cc.newcastle.edu.au