Now that the long wave question is turning into a discussion, I will
send (to the list) the point I made earlier in a direct email reply. It
is that for dating the phases, you can't just use prices and assume they are
synchronous with production phases. Typically turning points in production
precede price turning-points by 10-15 years. The breaking of inflation is
easy to identify at around 1980, and the downturn in production growth rates
precedes that somewhat -- which is consistent with "stagflation" in the 70s.
Currently, then, we are in a phase of stagnant production and low inflation.
Coming up not far in the future should be an upturn in production but not in
inflation, a kind of "rebirth" phase in the world economy (but not necessarily
in the same places as before, so I can't guarantee employment for Hopkins
grad students).