Wallerstein on the political position of Bush and the hawks: I would like
to buy his scenario but I have a few reservations: (1) an invasion of Iran/Syria
and/or a pre-emptive attack on North Korea cannot be ruled out (for the near
future) especially as election dates appear closer; (2) the fall of Bush
and the rise of what? Who is there in the US today as a progressive political
alternative that will contest elections?
-------- Original Message --------
Fernand Braudel Center, Binghamton University
http://fbc.binghamton.edu/commentr.htm
Commentary No. 117, July 15, 2003
"When Will Bush Fall?"
Bush's days are numbered. He is in serious trouble, and the trouble will
not go away. The tissue of justifications for the Iraq invasion is fraying
bit by bit. Both he and Blair have had to retreat on some of the more egregious
statements. The famous weapons of mass destruction are nowhere to be found.
And if some turn out, deeply buried somewhere, all that will prove is that
the weapons were not readily usable in a war - certainly not in the famous
45-minute interval of Tony Blair. The aluminum tubes seem to be exactly what
Saddam Hussein said they were, material for rockets. The asserted ties between
Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda were always improbable and no evidence has been
adduced to confirm them. Bush has now laid the blame on the CIA, while the
Republican chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee is accusing the CIA
of leaking material to embarrass President Bush. The thieves are falling
out.
The U.S. lived through this scenario once before, and not too long ago.
The Watergate coverup of President Nixon worked at first, with only partisan
sniping for a long while. But when Nixon tried to point the finger at fall
guys (remember John Dean), they started to reveal the truth. Nixon did win
his reelection. He held out that long. But in the end, he had to resign the
presidency when a successful impeachment was imminent.
Of course, the two situations are quite different in their details. But
there are certain striking similarities. They both took place within the
context of the ambivalence of U.S. public opinion about a war. They both
involved presidents who were willing to use all the instruments at their
command to ram through policies and intimidate opponents. They both had persons
around them who were masters at stonewalling. Vice-President Cheney must
have taken lessons at the feet of Nixon's Attorney-General John Mitchell.
In politics - world politics, national politics, local politics - you can
get a lot of support if you're winning. But the support often flies away
as soon as you start to be losing. Bush promised the U.S. and the world a
transformation of Iraq, indeed of the Middle East, if only Saddam Hussein
could be ousted. At this point, about three months after the military collapse
of the Iraqi regime, what is the situation in Iraq? Every day, American soldiers
are being killed by what is clearly a guerilla action of some consequence.
Iraqi policemen, newly-appointed by the U.S. occupiers, threatened to resign
if U.S. soldiers did not quit their police station, feeling their lives were
in danger for too close association with the U.S. army. Apparently, U.S.
soldiers are not seen as protectors of those who cooperate with them but
as a force association with which endangers one's lives.
The U.S. occupiers have been unable to restore even a minimum of electricity
in the urban centers of Iraq. Frankly, I am amazed by this. One would think
that the U.S. government could assemble the necessary engineers, fly in the
necessary equipment, and supply the necessary protection to the engineers
so that electricity could be restored in a week or two. Is it too expensive?
Are there other priorities? Does the U.S. not think this is important? Ordinary
Iraqis think it's the number one priority and are getting very angry. Soon,
the country may be awash with nostalgia for the regime the U.S. ousted.
Meanwhile, in Great Britain, the heroic ally of the U.S., Tony Blair, is
in increasing deep trouble. The Conservatives have decided there is no profit
in supporting him. The Liberals never did. And the number of Labor M.P.'s
who are restive are growing. At just this moment, the U.S. has announced
that it is going to try six persons at Guantanamo Bay, of whom two are British
citizens. There is a storm brewing in Great Britain among very respectable
jurists who object to what they see as dubious, even illegal, procedures.
They are calling for Blair to get the U.S. to turn these men over to British
justice. But Blair can't promise the U.S. that confessions extracted in the
absence of legal counsel will stand up in British courts. There is no easy
way that the U.S. could help Blair in this difficulty without jeopardizing
the entire structure of the Guantanamo nightmare.
At the same time, the U.S. government is having a very hard time convincing
any U.S. attorneys to be defense attorneys because they assert that the rules
are rigged aggainst them illegitimately.
The U.S. victory in Iraq was supposed to have the effect of getting recalcitrant
allies - France, Germany, Russia - to reverse their positions. There is no
sign of this whatsoever. Why should they? When Time Magazine conducted a
poll in Europe in March, asking which of three - North Korea, Iraq, or the
United States - was the biggest threat to world peace, a whopping 86.9% answered
the United States. And the U.S. and Europe are on a collision course about
mundane trade matters. In this, the U.S. has clearly been in the weak position.
The World Trade Organization is ruling against the U.S. on these matters.
Lots of little countries are quietly, and some not so quietly, refusing to
bend to the U.S. insistence on being the only country above international
law.
And last but not least, the U.S. economy is not doing well at all. In addition,
there are conservatives yelling that the Bush regime is not really conservative,
because it is increasing, not reducing, the role of the state. Howard Dean
is taking off as a potential Democratic candidate. And even if he doesn't
get the nomination, which he in fact may, he has already forced the other
Democratic candidates to "move to the left" to try to capture a little of
the support Dean seems to be getting.
Can Bush turn all this around? In the short run, maybe. If he can capture
Saddam Hussein, that would help Bush. Here again, I am amazed that the U.S.
has not been able to do this. But perhaps I should not be so amazed. Osama
bin Laden has not been captured, dead or alive, in the almost two years Bush
has been chasing him. Mullah Omar is still at large, and it seems he has
been reorganizing the Taliban.
As for the hawks who surround Bush, the day after the fall of Baghdad, they
started clamoring to invade Syria. But all that's quiet now. Neither Iran
nor North Korea have slowed down their drive to acquire nuclear weapons.
Quite the contrary. They are virtually flaunting it. And the U.S. is being
very prudent. The U.S. does not seem to have even the troops available to
do what is urgently needed, reinforcing their position in Iraq. They seem
scarcely in a position to take on Iran or North Korea seriously. Nor are
the diplomatic initiatives achieving much of anything - in Israel/Palestine,
in Northeast Asia, or even in Latin America.
If I were George W. Bush, I'd be very worried. Perhaps he's not. Pride goeth
before the fall. But I bet some of his clever political advisors are chewing
their nails. They were feeling very sure of themselves not so long ago. But
the ship of state has hit rough water. It may not sink immediately. But will
it reach shore safely? The odds are not high enough for them to be smiling
complacently.
Immanuel Wallerstein
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Becky Dunlop
Secretary, Fernand Braudel Center
Binghamton University
PO Box 6000
Binghamton NY 13902-6000
607-777-4924
http://fbc.binghamton.edu/index.htm