FutureQuest Issue 9 - Fast Future's Newsletter on Futures and Innovation

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Fast Future Ventures Ltd

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FutureQuest Issue 9

 

Welcome to issue 9 of FutureQuest – Fast Future’s newsletter on Future Trends and Innovation

 

FutureQuest is aimed at anyone interested in the trends and forces shaping our world and in innovative ways of responding to the challenges and opportunities the future presents.

 

To subscribe to FutureQuest send an email to futurequest-on@lists.w2networking.net

 

A lot has happened since our last newsletter so there’s a good train journey’s worth of reading below – I hope you find it of interest.

 

Regards

 

Rohit Talwar
Fast Future Ventures  Ltd

 

 

In this issue

 

1. Fast Future Public Speaking Engagements
2. The Project for the New American Century and US Global Policy in the 21^st Century
3. Project for the First Peoples’ Century
4. Guest Contribution - The Future of the Airline Industry
5. Business 2.0 – Six Technologies that will Change the World
6. The UK Ministry of Defence’s Study on Strategic Trends 2030
7. Launch of The Journal of New Business Ideas and Trends
8. Trend Tracker
9. Have Your Say
10. Forthcoming Conferences and Events
11. Venturesphere Update
12. Book a Speaker for Your Event
13. What is Fast Future?

 

 

1.       Fast Future Public Speaking Engagements

A number of people have asked for details on public events where we’ll speaking outside the conference circuit, so as the following are all coming up in the next few weeks I thought I’d bring them to your attention.  I will be talking about our work on futures at three forthcoming events:

 

Creating Value from the Future - Strategic Planning Society, London May 20th 6pm

This session will highlight some key future trends, profile some of the most interesting futures programmes underway around the world, introduce some futures processes and use case studies to highlight how they are being applied to create real and immediate business value. For further details contact +44 (0)20 7091 or visit www.sps.org.uk

 

Aspire to Be - Managing Yourself from the Future - June 3^rd 2003 6pm - Aspire Women's Network, London

This session will focus on how we can adopt a future-based approach to managing our lives, talent and careers and will address the following:

 

·         My Life - What does the future hold for me?

·         My Career - should I stay or should I go?

·         My Talent - How do I maximise the value of my ’brand’ and my talent?

·         My Options - Where are the greatest opportunities and risks?

·         My Decisions - How can I make the right choices when I don’t know how the future will unfold?

·         My Fulfilment - How can I use future insights to design the life I want?

 

 For further details contact +44 (0) 207 556 1018 or visit www.aspirecompanies.com

 

Future US and UK Defence Technology Strategy – Defence Futures Breakfast Briefing – Berwin Leighton Paisner London May 22^nd 8.30am

This session will draw on a range of inputs to address the following questions:

§         What are the key concepts, desired effects and capabilities that are driving defence R&D plans and initiatives in the US and UK?

§         What are the key scientific and technological developments of most interest to the defence strategists?

§         What are the implications for suppliers and partners?

 

For further information please contact Julie.Bullock@blplaw.com

 

 

2.       The Project for the New American Century and US Global Policy in the 21^st Century

For futurists, strategists and policy planners alike, one of the biggest challenges is understanding how the US foreign policy, military and defence agenda will play out. Good sources of insight into the thinking that underpins some of the current policy are the so called ‘neoconservative’ Think Tanks and Journals. Those receiving most attention at present are ‘The Project for the New American Century (PNAC)’, ‘The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI)’ and the journal the Weekly Standard http://www.weeklystandard.com/ - where the views of the neo-conservative thinkers are frequently aired.

 

The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) http://www.aei.org

The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research is dedicated to preserving and strengthening the foundations of freedom—limited government, private enterprise, vital cultural and political institutions, and a strong foreign policy and national defense—through scholarly research, open debate, and publications.

 

The Project for a New American Century http://www.newamericancentury.org/

In 1997 PNAC issued the following a ‘Statement of Principles’:

 

“We aim to make the case and rally support for American global leadership….Of course, the United States must be prudent in how it exercises its power. But we cannot safely avoid the responsibilities of global leadership or the costs that are associated with its exercise. America has a vital role in maintaining peace and security in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. If we shirk our responsibilities, we invite challenges to our fundamental interests.

 

The history of the 20th century should have taught us that it is important to shape circumstances before crises emerge, and to meet threats before they become dire. The history of this century should have taught us to embrace the cause of American leadership. Our aim is to remind Americans of these lessons and to draw their consequences for today. Here are four consequences:

·         we need to increase defense spending significantly if we are to carry out our global
responsibilities today and modernize our armed forces for the future;

·         we need to strengthen our ties to democratic allies and to challenge regimes hostile to our interests and values;

·         we need to promote the cause of political and economic freedom abroad;

·         we need to accept responsibility for America's unique role in preserving and extending an international order friendly to our security, our prosperity, and our principles.

Such a Reaganite policy of military strength and moral clarity may not be fashionable today. But it is necessary if the United States is to build on the successes of this past century and to ensure our security and our greatness in the next.”

 

The statement of principles was signed by a number of prominent politicians, military thinkers and academics including Jeb Bush, Dick Cheney, Steve Forbes, Francis Fukuyama, Frank Gaffney, Donald Kagan, Dan Quayle, Peter W. Rodman, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz.

 

Rebuilding America's Defenses. Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century

The most significant and influential output from the project so far was a paper published in 2000 entitled: Rebuilding America's Defenses. Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century.  The document is written by Thomas Donnelly of the AEI and drew contributions from serving military officers, politicians and academics including Paul Wolfowitz – now Deputy US secretary of Defense. A number of the contributors are serving in senior roles in the US Administration. The influence can clearly be seen in the US military transformation programme - Joint Vision 20/20 America's Military Preparing for Tomorrow  http://www.dtic.mil/jv2020

 

The report proceeds from the belief that America should ‘seek to preserve and extend its position of global leadership by maintaining the pre-eminence of U.S. military forces….At no time in history has the international security order been as conducive to American interests and ideals.

The challenge for the coming century is to preserve and enhance this “American peace.” To achieve these goals, four core missions are defined for U.S. military forces:

• defend the American homeland;
• fight and decisively win multiple, simultaneous major theater wars;
• perform the “constabulary” duties associated with shaping the security environment in
• critical regions;
• transform U.S. forces to exploit the “revolution in military affairs;”

 

To carry out these core missions, the report argues the need to increase defense spending gradually to a minimum level of 3.5 to 3.8 percent of gross domestic product, adding $15 billion to $20 billion to total defense spending annually.

 

(Some people have experienced difficulties downloading the report, so if you’d like a copy please drop me a line at rohit@fastfuture.com)

 

What’s Next on the Neo-conservative Agenda?

Business Week recently identified the following four short to long term priorities for neoconservative thinkers:

 

1. Middle East Peace – the Palestinian Authority are considered a terrorist organisation and Bush is urged to maintain his hard-line pro-Israel position.
2. Syria and Iran – in the long run, neocons want regime change in these ‘enemies of Israel’. In the short term they want increased pressure on both nations to disavow terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.
3. North Korea - some want a delay in negotiations in the hope of leadership change. North Korea’s nuclear capability makes it harder for necons to urge the threat of US force.
4. Old Europe – Neocons want the balance of power to shift from France and Germany to an East-West axis of Britain and the pro-US nations of Eastern Europe.

(Source: Where do the Neocons go from Here? Richard S. Dunham, Stan Crock and Lee Walczak – Business Week May 12 pp64-65 www.businessweekeurope.com)

 

3.      Project for the First Peoples’ Century http://www.rrojasdatabank.org/pfpc0000.htm

As a direct response to the perceived threat of the neoconservative agenda, Dr. Robinson Rojas an academic at South Bank University London, has launched a website entitled ‘Project for the First Peoples’ Century’. The site offers a platform for political and social scientists to explore alternative world views to those currently prevailing in the US. Its purpose is to “host papers and articles discussing the worldwide political, economic, ideological, social and environmental consequences of the contemporary US foreign policy.”  This should prove a useful resource for those wanting alternative viewpoints to those expressed in mainstream media and information sources.

 

4.       Guest Contribution - The Future of the Airline Industry

Our reader contribution for this issue comes from Ron Kuhlmann - Vice President

Of Unisys R2A Transportation Management Consultants.

 

Often we vacation at a large but shallow lake in Maine. Frozen solid in the winter, it is like bath water in the summer. When I asked our host how such change could occur, he replied that practically overnight the lake “turns over” with the colder water sinking and the warm rising to create a whole new environment.

 

Worldwide aviation is “turning over” and, like the lake temperature, will soon be a very different—and eventually stable, environment. Changes begun in the late 1970’s with the advent of deregulation in the US have slowly but constantly been changing the industry. The 1991 Gulf War created hardship for the established carriers but the low-cost competition was still too small to fully challenge the incumbents as they struggled. However, the combined impact of poor cost control, a growing low-cost segment, and a diminished economy created a downward spiral that was accelerated by the events of 9/11 and has continued as a perfect storm of war, economic stagnation, and most recently, disease.

 

No one doubts that these are significant and powerful challenges to any business segment and all carriers, even those with low costs, have been affected. However, it is equally true that of the operating models currently in place, one has emerged as resilient and adaptable while the legacy carriers struggle, often in vain, to recoup.

 

All legacy airlines once lived in a protected environment. While the US carriers were the first to be challenged, their size and market penetration, coupled with a passenger’s perception of what a “real” airline should be, allowed the legacy carriers to continue to believe that they were indispensable. The demise of Pan Am, Eastern and others did little to advance the idea that the operational model, which was based on high costs recouped by equally high fares, was untenable in the long term. But the growth and acceptance of alternative service offerings was relentless and there was increasing resistance to pay hugely greater amounts for essentially the same commodity, transport from A to B.

 

The internet and web-based pricing suddenly made huge discrepancies visible to travellers and price, rather than brand, has become ever more important. Suddenly, all of the factors were in place to finally undo the existing structure and the unravelling has been swift and spectacular.

 

So what will follow? In short, acceleration of the current trends. In Europe and Asia, the proven American low cost model is being successfully applied, and without a lengthy learning curve. The original model of short-haul, low-cost service has steadily extended its reach, serving multiple US transcontinental routes, and it should come as no surprise that the trade name EasyAtlantic is now registered. Travellers have realized that air transport is a commodity; discounted, traded, and bought for points and miles and, as with all commodities, it is viewed as exchangeable, with price being the deciding factor.

 

The future of air transport is assured, the existence of current major players is not. The demand will be met by those able to produce a product that can be profitably offered at market driven prices: a simple idea with enormous challenges for the established players.

Ron can be reached at Ronald.Kuhlmann@unisys.com

 

Agree or disagree – either way let us know your views via feedback@fastfuture.com

 

 

5.       Business 2.0 – Six Technologies that will Change the World http://www.business2.com/archives/mag/0,1059,403,00.html

In the May issue of Business 2.0 David Pescovitz profiles the futuristic technologies being developed by ‘inventors with vision’ inside university and corporate research laboratories.

 

God’s Ink Jet - A device that builds human organs and tissues from scratch. Assistant professor of bioengineering at Clemson University Thomas Boland is using modified ink-jet printers to squirt a "bio ink" of cells, growth factors, and degradable gel to form three-dimensional tubes of living tissue. The gel forms a scaffold for the cells to rest on as they naturally fuse together into the desired form. This approach could supply freshly forged hearts, livers, and kidneys with their survival-critical nutrients.

 

Robots you can Relate to - Cynthia Breazeal -Director of the Robotic Life Group at MIT's Media Lab is working on ‘Sociable robots’. Creating robots that interact with people the way people do opens up the potential to teach the young, care for the infirm -even befriend the lonely.

 

The Plane That Does Hong Kong and Back in a Day – Researchers from Raytheon are working on a supersonic business jet. Computer simulations have shown that dramatically lengthening a plane's body in proportion to its weight -- the six-seat plane is the length of a Boeing 737 -- and reshaping the wings can quiet the window-shattering double boom that restricts today's supersonic jetliners to transoceanic flights.

 

All-Day Portable Power - Paul Ronney Professor of aerospace and mechanical engineering at the University of Southern California and Sossina Haile associate professor of materials science at Caltech are working on a fuel cell the size of a marble. Haile's solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) is more compact and efficient than the direct methanol fuel cell often hailed as the power source of the future. Ronney's "Swiss roll" heat exchanger circulates the SOFC's intense heat to keep the cell running. This could give cell-phone talk time to 28 hours and – scaled up – run a laptop for 20 hours on butane or propane.

 

Electronic Paper – Imagine a newspaper that continuously updates itself or a business card on which you can watch news and sports highlights. John Rogers - Professor of materials science and engineering at the University of Illinois is working on Computer display screens as thin and flexible as a piece of paper. Rogers’ team have developed organic thin-film transistors (OTFTs), built from carbon-based semiconductors, to control the pixels in active-matrix displays. OTFTs can be printed on a flexible substrate like plastic, which Du Pont is developing to replace traditional glass displays. Sarnoff, meanwhile, is devising a way to send video signals to the new screens.

 

A Swarm of Sensors – Tracking objects on the move has become a challenge in many sectors - be they goods in the supply chain, soldiers on the battlefield or rare breeds on a nature reserve. Kris Pister CEO at Dust Inc. and professor of electrical engineering and computer sciences at the University of California at Berkeley is working on technology that could deliver networks of cheap, aspirin-size sensor robots everywhere. Pister and his students created "smart dust motes" -- tiny, low-power radios outfitted with microscale sensors. Dust's commercial motes are now just a little bigger than the two AAA batteries that keep them alive for years at a time. Rather than burning through batteries by constantly transmitting data to a central base station, a mote wakes up just long enough to send its readings to neighbouring motes.

 

 

6.       The UK MoD’s Study on Strategic Trends 2030 www.jdcc.mod.uk/trends.htm

In the last issue we mentioned the publication of this new resource which is downloadable from the web. A number of people have asked if it only focuses on military issues – the answer is most definitely no. Those who have used it have found it a valuable, time saving and comprehensive source of information on the key trends and driving forces shaping our world over the next thirty years.

 

The study report was launched on March 10^th by the UK Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon at a Royal Institute of International Affairs Conference on Transforming Defence for the 21^st Century. Fast Future were heavily involved in programme - one of the largest horizon scanning exercises of its kind undertaken in the UK. The study was run over an 18 month period by the MoD’s Joint Doctrine and Concepts Centre and drew input from over 100 individuals from diverse organisations - many of whom took part in one of nine themed future trends think tanks run by Fast Future. The programme examined different perspectives on how the future might evolve through nine lenses or ‘dimensions’:

 

1.       The business of business

2.       Economic

3.       Legal, moral and ethical

4.       Military, defence and security

5.       Physical – Including health, resources and the environment

6.       Political

7.       Science and technology

8.       Socio-demographic and cultural

9.       Future shocks

 

The full report is available in hard copy and online at www.jdcc.mod.uk/trends.htm

 

Fast Future has been helping a number of organisations to understand these trends and explore the implications for their future strategy, structure, capability, people, partners, markets, products and services. Please don’t hesitate to contact rohit@fastfuture.com or call 020 7435 3570 if you would like us to deliver a briefing, seminar or workshop for your organisation.

 

 

7.       Launch of The Journal of New Business Ideas and Trends (JNBIT) http://www.ubp.com.au/

JNBIT is a new initiative from Australia's University of Ballarat. The Journal aims to be an international forum for disseminating vital information and knowledge regarding new business thinking. Its goal is to “publish high quality papers written by both academics and practitioners, which capture leading edge developments, both in practice and theory." Fast Future is pleased to announce that we are the first organisation outside Australia to join the International Editorial and Advisory Board. The Journal is currently available at a foundation subscribers’ price of AUD$140 for individuals and AUD$480 for organizations.

 

 

8.       Trend Tracker

In each issue we highlight a selection of new trends that are making their way into the vocabulary of futurists and marketeers:

 

·         Life Management – as the concept of Time Poor, Cash Rich becomes a mantra for the middle classes in Western society – so the range of services we are prepared to pay for increases. Notable examples include having your photographs mounted in albums for you to personal financial controllers who will manage your finances, pay your bills and decide your weekly allowance.

·         Shape-Shifters – as organisations become more complex and serve increasingly culturally different markets, so the need grows to present a different face, style and culture to different audiences.

·         Spot Markets for Labour – the technology has now made it possible to create real time markets for talent with the owners of the talent bidding for projects over the internet. The global accessibilty of such markets has meant providers in the West now find themselves increasingly in competition with suppliers from the developing world.

·         Shock and Awe – The Iraq War was less than a week old when Sony trademarked the name for a new console game. Expect a rash of products, books and films bearing the name. More interesting still will be to see how the underying principles of shock and awe are applied by the business community.

·         Legal Music Downloads – the launch of Apple’s online iTunes Music store http://www.apple.com/itunes/ was a major success with over 1 million legal downloads of tracks at $0.99c in the first week.

·         Kung Faux Films - MuchMusic USA has re-released a series of classic martial arts and Kung Fu films with a major hip-hop overhaul. Bruce Lee and co. are re-dubbed using the voices of pop culture personalities, sports stars, and hip-hop artists. The films include comic book-style graphics, exclamation bubbles and a mix of modern and hip-hop music. The interactive DVD version includes karaoke, music videos from participating artists (Vol. 1 has Queen Latifah and De La Soul) and ‘funny’ new commercials from brands like Levi’s. Kung Faux also plans to tap the collectable figurine trend with a line of limited-edition “Action Figgaz”. Could Kung Faux gym classes be far behind? (source www.Trendcentral.com)

 

 

9.       Have Your Say

Our readers have said they particularly enjoy the contributions and responses from other readers. So we’d welcome your thoughts and ideas on topics you’d like us to cover in future issues. We’d also welcome your contributions – short and long - on the following themes we know a number of readers are currently wrestling with:

 

§         Dedicated Creativity Spaces And Innovation Laboratories – what works, what doesn’t, what are the best and worst examples you’ve seen?

§         Trends and Visions for Regional Economic Development – a growing focus of national economic policy across the globe focuses in on the Regional development agenda – regenerating and developing key Regions through programmes designed to boost growth through innovation and productivity, develop clusters or centres of excellence in the industries of the future and accelerate the creation of new businesses. What are the key trends, what could success look like, where are the risks, what role models should we be looking at around the globe?

 

 

10.   Forthcoming Conferences and Events

 

 

May 22 -24 2003 Opportunities in Diversity – Social Venture Network Europe’s Annual Conference, Zurich., Switzerland

SVN is focused on building a network of people interested in the creation of social ventures. It addresses a wide ranging agenda including the challenges of creating opportunity from diversity. This conference will explore business opportunities in diversity and provide examples of how it can be achieved. Burning issues, ideas, cutting-edge thinking and best practices will be presented. “Internationally well-known speakers, workshop leaders and the participants themselves will form a melting pot out of which wisdom, learning and inspiration will be drawn.” Speakers include Professor Tariq Ramadan, described as 'The Muslim Martin Luther'.  For a copy of the conference brochure visit http://213.206.79.171/svn/pdf/SVNEConferenceBrochure.pdf to register go to www.svneurope.com

 

 

May 26^th -28^th InnoTown Innovation and Design Festival. Ålesund, Norway Organisers and founders Cecilie With and Dag Lausund describe InnoTown as 'the unusual business conference for people who have the courage and willingness to think some new thoughts'. Speakers include James Dyson, Michael Peters and Benjamin Zander, conductor of the Boston Philharmonic. Contact: Cecilie With, email cecilie@inno.no. Telephone + 47 70 13 95 00. Fax + 47 70 13 95 01. www.innotown.org

 

 

JUNE 29 - JULY 2, 2003 - 6th ART & BUSINESS CONFERENCE, CASTLE BORL, SLOVENIA - IDRIART* Initiative

The event aims to bring together some of the most gifted and inspirational figures from the world of Art and have them work with business leaders in a range of creative and thought provoking experiences over the course of the programme. It will focus on how art can call forth the most essential competencies for leadership in uncertain economic times and on transferring artistic creativity to creativity in organisations.

 

The event is run by Miha Pogacnic - a brilliant orchestra conductor and violinist who works with a symphony orchestra to drive home some powerful lessons for business. Organisations already signed up include Air Liquide, EADS, Novartis, Siemens, Skandia, Unilever and Whirlpool. The location looks fantastic. Unless my schedule changes at short notice I’m planning to be there. In designing the event they have gone for a deliberate balance of great artists and business people.

The event fee is 1,500 Euros. For more information go to http://www.borl.org For a booking form and a copy of an article by Miha please contact us at artsbus@fastfuture.com. To find out more about Miha’s work visit  http://www.mihavision.com.

 

 

July 2^nd-3^rd 2002 Information Operations – IQPC Conference London

Information is being moved, copied, deleted and abused at the touch of a button: protecting your critical infrastructure against attack is of primary concern to organisations across the globe. This conference will bring together high-level representation from the military, government and industry to discuss strategies to be employed in the offensive and defensive manipulation of information. For full programme information visit www.iqpc-defence.com/GB-2025/S5

 

Topics to be covered include perception management, strategic influence, risk management, legacy systems and information security. Choose from corporate or military afternoon tracks to hear the most relevant case studies for your organisation. The expert speaker panel includes speakers from the US Navy, The Terrorism Research Center, National Security Council, Pentagon, UK MoD, International Centre for Security Analysis, BBC, Mars Omega, Fastfuture Ventures, Cybershield Networks, and Interpact Inc.

 

The event also features an interactive Masterclass run by Winn Schwartau of Interpact Inc. who will amongst other interactive games pitch you into the middle of a hypothetical cyber-disaster to test you how you would react in a real situation. Book and pay before the 30^th May 2003 to receive a 10% discount. Military and Government rates are also available. For more information and to register visit www.iqpc-defence.com/GB-2025/S5 or call IQPC on +44 (0)207 368 9300 now quoting your VIP code S5 to receive your discount.

 

 

You can find a full listing of forthcoming creativity and innovation events at Martin Leith’s NowtoNew site www.martinleith.com/nowtonew/events/welcome.html

 

 

11.   Book a Speaker for Your Event

Fast Future is regularly asked to speak at and facilitate briefings, seminars and workshops on futures and innovation. Recent and forthcoming engagements include sessions with major corporations such as Berwin Leighton, BAT, Haliburton KBR and Whirlpool and presentations for the Strategic Planning Society, Aspire, Defence Manufacturers Association, Beyond Bricks and a variety of conferences on themes such as partnering and alliances and defence futures. If you’d like to discuss booking Fast Future for your event, workshop or conference, please contact rohit@fastfuture.com

 

 

12.   What is Fast Future?

Fast Future is a consultancy which helps clients explore future trends, assess their implications and develop strategies to address them. We place a strong emphasis on using horizon scanning to spot opportunities to create trends, to develop propositions that disrupt markets and to build new ventures. We draw on a network of expert partners to help us deliver processes, projects and programmes tailored to a client’s specific needs and culture. To find out more please contact rohit@fastfuture.com

 

Rohit Talwar
Fast Future Ventures Ltd
rohit@fastfuture.com
m +44 (0)7973 405 145
t   +44 (0)20 7435 3570  
f   +44 (0)20 7794 3568
www.fastfuture.com

www.venturesphere.com

 

 

To subscribe to FutureQuest send an email to futurequest-on@lists.w2networking.net