The insight of Gibran Tueni may be correct

Normally only a major shock changes the course of history---the impact of a professionalized Roman Legion, the American Revolutionary War, utter, unconditional,devastated wasteland defeat of WWII Japan and Germany.

The shock of an unconditionally defeated Iraq, accompanied by minor physical damage and Iraqi fatalities is not of such magnitude.  But Tueni is probably correct in anticipating a Middle East shift from dictatorship to democracy.  One question that lingers, however, is: Is that a justifiable reason to invade Iraq?

Jerry Shepperd

Tuesday, February 25, 2003

Threat of war spurs Mideast shifts. U.S. has yet to fire a shot at Iraq, but change is triggered.

Diane Francis, Financial Post


The United States has already scored a huge victory when it comes to the war
against terrorism and Iraq, and in the Middle East mess. Paradoxically,
peace is more possible than ever now that the Americans are at full force
and poised to go, with or without the United Nations Security Council.

Saddam Hussein knows the only way he can survive is to leave voluntarily.
But he may be nuts, choosing to take on the strongest military in history.
So war, if it takes place, is strictly Saddam Hussein's choice, not
America's.

"War against Hussein is the only answer for this region," said influential
Arab publisher Gebran Tueni in a recent interview with me. He owns An-Nahar,
a respected daily newspaper in Beirut. "If there is a war, there will be a
new geopolitical map for the Middle East. The road is blocked to progress
and the Middle East needs a shock to get people to sit around the table.
Maybe it will shake everyone. But 'peace' as we have now? A disaster."

He's correct. The threat alone of U.S. military power against Hussein has
caused tectonic shifts in the right direction. Here are some notable
changes:

- EGYPT Most dramatically, Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak just invited
Israel's re-elected Ariel Sharon for a state visit to Cairo while at the
same time dispatching his son to Washington to suck up to the
administration. The country's government-controlled media has stopped its
anti-American diatribes and coverage. Clearly, Egypt wants to curry U.S.
favour, play a visible role in eventually helping to solve the Israeli
problem and do business with the eventual U.S. protectorate of Iraq.

- SAUDI ARABIA Egypt's flip-flop was followed by a softened Saudi stance.
Its spindoctors announced that once Iraq is controlled by the United States
and converted into a democracy, the House of Saud will no longer need U.S.
soldiers on its soil to protect it. The Kingdom has stated it will then
crack down on its religious lunatic fringe and embark on democratic reforms.

- KUWAIT This country is the biggest booster of the U.S. initiative and the
biggest winner so far. Kuwait's stock market has increased 30% and property
values near the Iraqi border have jumped dramatically since U.S. troops
began arriving. This is because the elimination of Saddam Hussein is good
news for that country's economy because it removes any threat of another
invasion, regional wars or more harassment.

- TURKEY The only real democracy in the region has been negotiating for tens
of billions of dollars from Washington in return for allowing U.S. troops to
invade Iraq from the north. This is not merely a shakedown, but pre-emptive
compensation. The war in Iraq imposes huge economic costs on this developing
nation. An estimated 10% of its gross domestic product involves trade with
the Iraqi regime, business that will be interrupted indefinitely until the
regime change is complete and the reconstruction of Iraq is under way.

- JORDAN This tiny monarchy has always quietly supported the United States
and after making initial noises about denying troops access and sealing off
its border against refugees, it's been busily building accommodations for
both.

- LEBANON An-Nahar's publisher, Mr. Tueni, said the liberation of Iraq will
allow the U.S. military presence to monitor and control Iran and Syria, two
hideous regimes, that have been exporting terrorism. Iran, for instance,
provides Lebanese terrorist organization, Hezbollah, with US$20,000 a month
to cause trouble for Israel and to create an Islamic "Republic" there. As
its next step the United States will get Israel and a new Palestinian
leadership to the table.

- EUROPEAN UNION Germany's head-in-the-sand approach over Iraq and France
and Belgium's arrogance are being ignored, and overruled, by virtually all
their European Union cohorts, plus all the new entrants in the trade zone.
This will remove their undue influence on geopolitical affairs. The
Franco-German exclusion of Turkey from European Union entry and vetoes
against NATO help for Turkey will damage them, politically and economically,
throughout the Arab and Islamic world. And France's support of Mr. Hussein
by blocking efforts to frighten or force him out has squandered whatever
diplomatic capital it had.

The French and Germans have long been Europe's problem. They will be
isolated and undermined going forward. Bilateral trade arrangements with the
Turks, Americans and others will be initiated, excluding them.

- CANADA Ottawa's wimpy, equivocal pronouncements have tarnished our
reputation south of the border and the $17-million allocated in the recent
budget for public relations there won't do the trick. Only a regime change
here will.

dfrancis@nationalpost.com

"When you learn, teach.  When you get, give."
                        -- Maya Angelou