Techno-Logic

        Gunder's analysis of the decay of the dollar, the world depression
of the Bush Era, and East Asia as the next hegemon is astute and quite
plausible.  It follows the logic of contemporary social science to logical
conclusions.

        I would only add that another logic is now at play in the world,
which could radically compress the time needed for the United States to
topple and for others to take its place, perhaps to topple just as swiftly
in their turn.  I refer to the logic of technology.  Not just the logic of
"high tech," vastly expensive and often available only to states, but also
the power that comparatively "low" technology can give any disciplined
individual or organized group.  The logic of the Tokyo subway gassing, the
Oklahoma City bombing, the kamikaze attack on the WTC, and the Afghan
mujahideen.

        It is likely that we are only in the earliest and most primitive
stages of a whole century of sabotage, which will be able to bring down
the most "powerful" states, no matter how well armed, taking advantage of
the densely interlocked nature of modern economies and communication
networks.  There have been saboteurs and guerrillas since the beginning of
time, and most of the so-called terror wreaked in the last few years has
come nowhere near realizing its state-busting potential.  But the fact
that the WTC attack, for example, did significantly deepen the depression
already in progress in the U.S. is a bellwether of things to come.

        I recently read a report from Agence France-Presse about the
findings of a panel of security experts who took part in a computerized
simulation of a bioterrorist attack on the U.S. involving smallpox.  The
panel shared these findings with the House Subcommittee on National
Security.  The gist of the report was that the panic, confusion, and
ravaging economic consequences of the attack would bring the U.S. to its
knees in a matter of weeks.  Martial law would be imposed, and the economy
would collapse.

        Or what about the simultaneous detonation of dirty bombs
(conventional explosives laced with radioactive waste) in the heart of
Manhattan, Atlanta, Chicago, and San Francisco?  It would take years to
decontaminate these centers, and with commerce and finance in national
disarray, the economy would nosedive.  Such attacks could be renewed and
multiplied on a monthly schedule, paralyzing all efforts to recover.  The
cost of these attacks would be greater than the cost of 19 boxcutters and
19 airplane seats, but not much.

        I am not concerned here with who would be responsible for the
sabotage--home-grown fascist militias, "rogue" states, international
terrorist bands, conspiracies within the U.S. military itself, whatever.
Nor am I concerned with the justice of the saboteurs' cause, not in the
context of this post.  My point is simply that the technology is now
available to render impotent both of the "pillars" cited by Gunder, the
dollar and the Pentagon.  Or their equivalents elsewhere and elsewhen.
And the vulnerability of the world-system, just because it is also now a
world system without the hyphen, to major disaster anywhere guarantees
that the ripple effects of such local disasters will be grievous
everywhere.

        Warren

W. Warren Wagar
Professor of History Emeritus
Binghamton University, SUNY