US-Europe Fracture?

I must admit that if, per the NYT article below, the report in Der
Spiegel weekly "that France and Germany were considering a plan to
deploy thousands of United Nations peacekeepers and hundreds more
weapons inspectors to prevent military conflict in Iraq," comes to be,
then a really historical political fracture with the US would be
difficult to avoid (and Wallerstein's anticipation of that rupture some
20 years ago would make him an undisputed visionary).

February 9, 2003
Rumsfeld Rebukes U.N. and NATO on Approach to Baghdad
By THOM SHANKER
 
MUNICH, Feb. 8 — Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld issued
uncompromising challenges to both the United Nations and NATO over Iraq
today, warning that the global body risked ridicule and discredit and
cautioning three of America's European partners that delaying plans to
defend Turkey weakened the Atlantic alliance.

As Mr. Rumsfeld spoke, thousands of people joined a protest called by
church and labor leaders in the heart of Munich to protest any war in
Iraq. The senior United Nations weapons inspectors landed in Baghdad on
what could be their last visit, seeking significant moves by Iraq to
prove that it has really disarmed. 

Mr. Rumsfeld said the United Nations, by allowing Iraq to violate 17
Security Council resolutions over more than a decade, appeared to be
following the League of Nations in choosing bluff over action.

Allowing Iraq to become chairman of the United Nations Commission on
Disarmament and selecting Libya to lead its Commission on Human Rights
showed that the institution "seems not to be even struggling to regain
credibility," he said.

"That these acts of irresponsibility could happen now, at this moment in
history, is breathtaking," Mr. Rumsfeld said. "Those acts will be marked
in the history of the U.N. as either the low point of that institution
in retreat, or the turning point when the U.N. woke up, took hold of
itself, and moved away from a path of ridicule to a path of
responsibility."

Turning to America's NATO partners, Mr. Rumsfeld was critical of France,
Germany and Belgium for what he said were "inexcusable" actions to
postpone alliance planning to defend Turkey in the event of war with
Iraq.

"Turkey will not be hurt," Mr. Rumsfeld said. "The United States and the
countries in NATO will go right ahead and do it. What will be hurt will
be NATO, not Turkey."

NTV, a Turkish-language news channel, reported that Turkey's leaders had
agreed to accept up to 38,000 American troops for an operation in Iraq,
and that they would allow American planes to use six Turkish air bases.

Senior Turkish leaders, who were meeting with American diplomats, were
not available for comment, and the report could not be confirmed. The
Turkish Parliament would have to approve any such agreement and is
scheduled to vote Feb. 18 on whether to allow American troops to use the
country for an attack on Iraq.

In an animated rebuttal to Mr. Rumsfeld, Joschka Fischer, the German
foreign minister, said his nation was not abandoning its obligations to
defend Turkey, but suggested that NATO planners await the next report of
the weapons inspectors on Feb. 14.

"We didn't want an extra buildup to be done, so to speak, before the
decisive Security Council meeting," Mr. Fischer said. Proposals for
NATO's defense of Turkey include deploying Patriot antimissile batteries
and surveillance aircraft.

Mr. Fischer said he had no argument with the American assessment of
Saddam Hussein as a dictator who has fired Scud missiles at his
neighbors and has used chemical weapons.

"Why this priority now?" he asked Mr. Rumsfeld. "We have known this for
a long time."

Mr. Fischer recounted Germany's arguments for international inspectors
to continue their efforts in Iraq, especially given new intelligence
disclosed last week by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, and he
contrasted the American case for military action.

"I am not convinced," Mr. Fischer said. "This is my problem."

The influential Der Spiegel weekly, in advance copies released today,
reported that France and Germany were considering a plan to deploy
thousands of United Nations peacekeepers and hundreds more weapons
inspectors to prevent military conflict in Iraq.

A German government spokesman confirmed that the two nations were
working together to find a peaceful alternative to war, but declined to
give any details.

The lively exchange occurred during an annual conference on
international security here, a gathering on defense issues, where former
directors of the Central Intelligence Agency mingle with Russian
national security czars, government ministers meet in formal bilateral
sessions and in elegant private dinners. Today, legislators from across
Europe snacked on smoked salmon as protesters gathered in a light snow
on the nearby Marienplatz.

The gap between American and European views of the global terrorist
threat was summed up by Edmund Stoiber, the premier of the German state
of Bavaria, who said, "The dangers are not perceived in this breadth and
width."

Mr. Rumsfeld's theme that the nations of the world faced a momentous
decision was echoed by Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, who
told the conference that France and Germany had dealt a "terrible
injury" to the alliance and "raised doubts among nations on both sides
of the Atlantic about their commitment to multinational diplomacy."

Despite Mr. Rumsfeld's lengthy public criticism of the United Nations
for its handling of Iraq, he spoke with his Russian counterpart, Sergei
B. Ivanov, of the important role that one of its organs, the
International Atomic Energy Agency, must play in defusing the current
nuclear crisis in North Korea.

During a closed-door bilateral between the two defense ministers, Mr.
Rumsfeld and Mr. Ivanov agreed that North Korea posed a threat to the
entire world, and that it should be dealt with as a "international
problem," according to a senior Defense Department official.

Even as he rallied support for a possible war with Iraq, Mr. Rumsfeld
tried humor to appease irritated allies.

Mr. Rumsfeld made light of his description of Germany and France as the
"old Europe," whose opposition to war with Iraq he contrasts with
support for the United States from Britain, Italy and a number of
post-Communist nations new to NATO and the European Union.

"At my age," said the 70-year-old Mr. Rumsfeld, "I consider `old' a term
of endearment."

But Mr. Rumsfeld got in a subtle dig at Germany, the biggest and most
powerful nation, which in the 1990's saw itself as a unified nation at
the heart of Europe with influence increasing to the east.

"The center of Europe has indeed shifted eastward," Mr. Rumsfeld said,
noting that the United States was pleased with the new alignments within
the alliance. The post-Communist nations — or at least many of their
current leaders — see the United States as a power whose championing of
the cause of liberty proved decisive in the defeat of Communism. Unlike
France or Germany, these nations also have no history of the irritants
and bickering in the post-1945 Atlantic alliance.

Mr. Rumsfeld saluted the leaders of Britain, the Czech Republic,
Denmark, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal and Spain, who wrote a letter
pledging their commitment to disarming Iraq. He also praised a
subsequent declaration — this one from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Croatia and Macedonia —
offering to contribute to a coalition to enforce Security Council
resolutions on disarming Iraq.

Mr. Rumsfeld said the United States did not expect every ally to join
such a military effort. "The strength of our coalition is that we do not
expect every member to be a party of every undertaking," he said.

But he warned those who say preparations for war must be delayed,
because, he argued, "that approach could well make war more likely, not
less, because delaying preparations sends a signal of uncertainty,
instead of a signal of unity and resolve."

No one wants war, Mr. Rumsfeld said. "War is never a first or an easy
choice," he added. "But the risks of war need to be balanced against the
risks of doing nothing while Iraq pursues the tools of mass
destruction."

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