Re: casus belli

> The upshot is that the war is undertaken primarily out of ideological
> considerations - it is about the defense of the leading US position
> globally.  Both the means of this policy (projection of military power)
> and its ultimate aim bespeak the fundamental weakness of the US position.
>
> This is not to say that economic (i.e. oil) and geostrategic (i.e. Israel)
> concerns are irrelevant to the adoption of the current course - the
> background of the major players in this administration's security and
> foreign policy teams make it impossible to argue otherwise.
I think this would be a classic case of "overdetermination". The 
necessary task is the assertion of US global dominance, OK. However, 
there are a lot of places that could serve that purpose. Afghanistan 
did quite well. Libya would work. Cuba. Iran. North Korea. Syria. 
Colombia (FARC). Somalia. However, Iraq has the distinct advantages 
of (1) massive oil reserves (2) proximity to Israel (3) no close 
allies, or neighbours that would strongly object to its invasion (4) 
an already decimated economy and military (5) a history of hostility 
to the US, including a culturally "pre-demonized" face and 
(importantly) an image of being a credible military threat (6) being 
previously defeated, but with "unfinished business" - amongst other 
factors. It will be noted that I think that "path dependency" plays a 
definite role here. In any case, the point is that there are multiple 
reasons that all lead to the same target - a greater density of 
reasons than any current alternative.

On a strict "king of the castle" logic, beating a country like Iran 
or North Korea - which could offer much more credible resistance - 
would actually be *more* effective. But they are not so 
overdetermined. Indeed, the fact that they could *actually* offer 
credible resistance, rather than just the image of it, is most likely 
a drawback. Which just goes to support the conclusion that current 
bluster, however deadly, is more a sign of weakness than of strength.

Chris