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Kashmir & Prospects of N-War in South Asia: The Contraditions of the Indian Position....... by Saima Alvi 24 May 2002 12:28 UTC |
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War clouds on the horizon (of South Asia) ========================= By Ghayoor Ahmed ------------------------------------------ According to P.R. Chari, an Indian defence analyst, "India's strategy of putting pressure on Pakistan to end cross-border terrorism in Kashmir has clearly failed. India has made itself a hostage to fortune. It cannot de- escalate its military build-up without completely losing face." ----------------------------------------- The Indians claim that the United States had given them an assurance to address the question of terrorism in the occupied Kashmir once their mission in Afghanistan was over. It is hard to believe that the United States would have fallen victim to India's vociferous propaganda which portrays the freedom fighters in Kashmir as terrorists only to hoodwink the public opinion. By no stretch of the imagination, can the concept of terrorism be invoked by India against Kashmiris' struggle for self-determination, the legitimacy of which has been recognized by the United Nations. The state of Jammu and Kashmir is a disputed territory, as declared by the United Nations, which means that the inhabitants of that state, at present under the illegal occupation of India, are not Indian subjects by any definition. The Kashmiris are struggling for their legitimate cause and cannot be accused of undermining India's territorial integrity, as Kashmir is not a part of that territory. Thus, the concept of territorial integrity cannot be invoked by India in this case. Taking advantage of the international community's resolve to fight against international terrorism and to detract world's attention from its own state terrorism in the occupied Kashmir, India has, of late, raised the pitch of its propaganda against the freedom fighters in Jammu and Kashmir while unleashing a reign of terror against them. Since long, India has been accusing Pakistan of supporting cross-border infiltration into the occupied Kashmir. Time and again Pakistan has denied this allegation. The indigenous struggle of the Kashmiri people had neither been sponsored by Pakistan, nor had ever been supported by it materially. For more than a decade India has deployed more than 700,000 troops in the occupied Kashmir to suppress the on-going freedom struggle there. Following the December 13 attack on the Indian parliament by some unknown persons India also massed more than 500,000 troops on its side of the Line of Control and along its international border with Pakistan. According to India's own declaration, the area immediately behind the Indian side of the LoC has been heavily mined to a width of five kilometers. Under these circumstances, any large-scale infiltration into the occupied Kashmir is practically impossible. Indian prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, has recently admitted in the parliament that the cross-border terrorism has declined during the recent months. A senior intelligence officer in the occupied Kashmir has made a similar admission, although attributing this reduction to heavy snowfall in Kashmir. Paradoxically, however, the Indian ministry of external affairs' spokesperson Nirupama Rao said, last week, that the figures for infiltration of militants into the occupied Kashmir closely match those of previous years. Obviously, this assertion is only a figment of her imagination unless, of course, India has devised some method to keep an account of infiltrators into the occupied Kashmir. India seems poised to indulge in adventure against Pakistan, ostensibly, for its failure to stop the alleged cross-border "terrorism." CIA Director George Tenet has warned that the chances of Indo-Pak war are very high. Douglas Feith, the US defence department's policy chief, has given a similar warning. India's hostility towards Pakistan is not a new phenomenon. It has imposed three wars on Pakistan during the last fifty years or so. The reason for India's present belligerent attitude towards Pakistan is, however, explained by Sunil Khilani, a respected Indian historian, in these words: "Mr Vajpayee's Bharatya Janta Party has lost every state election in the past year. What better issue than Pakistan to restore its popularity?" According to P.R. Chari, an Indian defence analyst, "India's strategy of putting pressure on Pakistan to end cross-border terrorism in Kashmir has clearly failed. India has made itself a hostage to fortune. It cannot de- escalate its military build-up without completely losing face." On the other hand, Ashok Mehta, a retired Indian general, has recently revealed that "Indian generals are telling the politicians that they cannot remain fully mobilized indefinitely." It seems that India, which is on the horns of a dilemma, is now looking for a face-saving device to end its existing predicament. No wonder, if it is contemplating a symbolic strike on Azad Kashmir so that it may be able to de-escalate its military deployment with some semblance of grace. However, India needed a solid pretext to embark upon its military adventure against Pakistan. Apparently, it wants to avail itself of its oft-repeated allegation of cross-border terrorism against Pakistan to salvage its position. If so, India owing to its shortsightedness will be treading on the path of destruction. Given India's superiority over Pakistan in conventional forces, the political and defence analysts are apprehending a nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with loss of life and property on a scale the world has never witnessed before. The United States, alarmed at the possibility of a devastating nuclear war, is doing its best to reduce tension between the two countries. Ms Christina Rocca, assistant secretary of state, recently visited India and Pakistan for this purpose. However, her mission did not succeed owing to India's usual obduracy. According to media reports, the deputy secretary of State, Richard Armitage, is also expected to visit the region very soon for the same purpose. It is, however, intriguing that the United States, being closely involved in efforts to reduce the danger of war between India and Pakistan, should have chosen this very crucial moment, to have joint military exercises with India in Agra. The US should have exercised extreme caution to establish its credentials as an impartial peace-broker. The US has also publicly endorsed the upcoming elections in the occupied Kashmir which, as in the past, are being opposed by the Kashmiris. Regrettably, such ill-conceived moves, on the part of the United States, may not only dilute its own leverage in Pakistan but may also create difficulties for President Pervez Musharraf in is fight against terrorism. It is time that Indian leaders gave serious thought to resolving the long- standing Kashmir dispute by peaceful means rather than embarking upon an adventure against Pakistan. Posterity will never forgive them for their irresponsible and ruthless behaviour. --------- Posted from DAWN INTERNET EDITION (dawn.com) for 22 May 2002
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