Re: Two Questions (France situation)

The origin of the problem is related to the general crisis of the left. From 1981, left in France has lost votes. If we see results in the first round of legislative elections, left obtained 40-43% of census votes in 78-81 and only 32,3% in 1997 (with victory of the left). In the classical right parties, we can see the same tendency (from 30-35% to 20,4%).

The problem is basically with classical left - socialists and communists - (from 38% in 80’s to 24,1 in 1997). The last presidential elections were a next step to disaster. Census vote to PS/PC was 14,1% in 2002 (25% in 1995) but left vote was still the same (31,8 and 32,3%). RPR/UDF right parties lose even more, from 30,9% to 19,3%. Instead of left, in general right vote falls globally in the 2002 presidential elections, from 46,4 to 40,2%. Paradox of left disunion: right loses votes but obtain two alternatives for second round.

Extreme right grows only 2,3% Census points between 1995 and 2002 presidential elections (greens and extreme left grows in the same period 7 census points). But, from 1981, extreme right obtains around 10% of Census vote from traditional right parties.

Anyway, from 1981, winners are leftist parties (trotskysts, greens) and extreme right parties (Le Pen).

In fact the basic questions in France are:

1 A dramatic crisis of left traditional parties. Extreme left and green party grows at traditional party’s expenses (7 points), causing its defeat. PC is at the door of disappearing.

2. Dramatic crisis also in right traditional parties. 2002 Presidential abstention will be in fact related to the right parties and not to the left, probably related to votes in 1995 to Mr. Balladur (UDF).

3. Extreme right grows a bit in the period but not significantly. Her victory is due to the crisis of PS (basically).

Former growth of Le Pen is associated to the right party’s crisis from 1981 and, if we see the results, his vote is much more associated to former votes of these parties in – and this is important to understand the situation – traditional leftist zones. Crisis of PC is associated to initial growth of PS and, further, with leftist and green vote growth.

In my country, Spain, we see the same tendencies but with two differences:

1. PS maintains globally the vote because of the anti-franquist culture still existing but will have problems, as IU (PCE), because they have very little impact between young people and in urban areas (PS vote is now highly associated to little towns and rural areas, specially in the South, and to people 35-40 years old and more).

2. Right is linked in one political structure, using the Spain unity (against Basque or Catalan nationalism) as mode of social cohesion. Her hegemony is actually total.

So, the traditional left is in crisis, as the traditional working society is in crisis. This is the problem in France and Spain. A very bad situation to think in a good future for us.

The reason: left has no global programme of transformation for our societies at this time, different of the right, and the social cohesion of left traditional parties is over now (with some nuances in Spain). Simply that.

Luis Sanzo

Vitoria

Spain