the game's afoot

The Great Game is afoot again, says Pakistan's leading daily, _The Dawn_. 
But of course, the war in Afghanistan has nothing whatever to do with
oil...

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19 November 2001        Monday          03 Ramazan 1422  
 

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New great game is about oil and gas  

ISLAMABAD, Nov 18: The collapse of Afghanistan's Taliban regime opens a new
chapter in the "Great Game" of Central Asia, with Pakistan, Russia and Iran
jockeying furiously for influence in their mutual neighbour. 

With the Taliban on the run, Tehran and Islamabad - under watchful Russian
and US eyes - are racing to establish diplomatic beachheads in a country
that has been at the crossroads of regional politics for centuries. 

Ethnic and religious passions, fears of unstable borders and a potential
petro-dollar windfall are all on the table in a regional update of the 19th
century Anglo-Russian rivalry that became known as the "Great Game." 

Iran, an ardent supporter of the victorious Northern Alliance in
Afghanistan, is rushing to be among the first countries to open an embassy
in Kabul, the government newspaper in Tehran reported Saturday. 

Sources said Iranian foreign ministry officials took to the road from
eastern Iran to prepare for the reopening of their diplomatic missions in
the capital as well as the cities of Herat and Mazar-i-Sharif. 

Moscow has dispatched a senior 12-member government delegation to establish
ties with the new Afghan leadership. It too plans to reopen its Kabul
embassy as soon as possible and put a consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif. 

Russia signed up for the US-led coalition but has become increasingly
concerned that Western powers were seeking to pacify Pakistan by pushing for
a new Afghan government that would include a large Taliban contingent. 

In contrast, Pakistan and the United States were struggling in their
dealings with the Northern Alliance, which ignored their appeals to stay out
of Kabul until the question of a new government could be settled. 

The Northern Alliance has never had any love for Pakistan, the last country
to support the Taliban, and has become increasingly critical of what it
calls Islamabad's efforts to put its stamp on a new Afghan government. 

The alliance also appears to have little time for the United States, despite
six weeks of US air strikes that helped it sweep the Taliban from nearly all
of northern Afghanistan and Kabul. 

Indeed, James Dobbins, the US envoy to the Northern Alliance, has been in
Pakistan since Wednesday but still has no plans to travel to the Afghan
capital, according to officials in Washington. 

On one level, Pakistan and Iran have similar interests in Afghanistan. Both
are concerned about a potential outpouring of refugees; both fear continued
chaos in their neighbour could trigger unrest in their countries. But if the
19th century matchup of diplomatic wits, bribery and betrayal between
Britain and Russia was about trade routes and rail links, the "New Great
Game" is all about oil and gas. 

The intrepid soldiers and spies of a bygone era have given way to engineers
and deal makers as the states jockey for the lucrative business of building
pipelines to tap the vast reserves of the landlocked region. 

Islamabad has been hoping to run a gas pipeline from Uzbekistan through
Afghanistan to Pakistan, and perhaps to India. Iran has its own pipeline
dreams but had run into strong US opposition. 

"The Iranians are not interested in stabilizing Afghanistan under any regime
which would allow the pipeline to go ahead," said M.A. Niazi, a prominent
political analyst. 

"The only way of bringing Iran on board and to make them active partner in
stability, is to give them their pipeline," he said. "But the Americans'
interest is to go through Afghanistan and Pakistan." 

Russia and Iran have been conferring closely in recent days, and their
foreign ministers met in New York on Friday to discuss Afghanistan's future,
according to Iranian radio. 

Perhaps not coincidentally, two days earlier senior Russian and Iranian
negotiators urged accelerated efforts, including a five-country presidential
summit, to a decade-old dispute over sharing Caspian Sea oil wealth. But
Iran and Pakistan have also maintained contacts on the situation in
Afghanistan. -AFP 








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