Lightning advances the norm in Afghanistan

Afghanistan after the fall of Kabul: Is the war over?

By Alan Woods

"When the leaders speak of peace, the common people know that war is
coming." (Bertolt Brecht)

Afghanistan is full of surprises. And what surprise could be bigger than
the lightening advance of the Northern Alliance over the last seven days?
In less than a week, Taliban forces have been swept from most of northern
Afghanistan, including the key cities of Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kunduz,
Taloqan, Bamiyan, Jalalabad and the capital Kabul. The question is: How did
a force that only two months ago controlled most of Afghanistan get swept
from the battlefield so quickly, and is the battle over?

As a matter of fact, the speed of the Northern Alliance's advance was not
really surprising. Rapid advances are the norm in Afghanistan, as when the
Taliban swept through the country as quickly in 1994 and 1995. A decade or
so earlier, Russia's initial invasion of Afghanistan took only a few weeks.
The reason for this phenomenon is partly the country's small population
density. The rugged terrain means that most of it is uninhabited. Armies
are usually small and mobile, with not much of a rear. So once the front
line breaks, it usually ends in a rapid retreat.

The national question also played a role. The Taliban troops in northern
Afghanistan - overwhelmingly Pushtoon in composition (with volunteers from
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia) were fighting among a population drawn from
other ethnic groups: Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, who were viciously oppressed
by the Taliban and hostile to them. It was thus relatively easy for the
Northern Alliance to make rapid progress in this area, and more difficult
for the Taliban to maintain themselves, once the grip of terror was removed.

Another feature of wars in Afghanistan is the tendency of commanders to
defect to the other side - and back again. Switching sides is common
behaviour among Afghan groups. It is how the Taliban initially captured
Mazar-e-Sharif in 1997 and how it was as swiftly driven from the city later
that year. The factions comprising the Northern Alliance have fought one
another as often as they have fought the Taliban. As the Taliban core
withdrew from northern Afghanistan, the groups that had sided with it
during its occupation quickly joined the advancing Northern Alliance.

It is also important to bear in mind the following fact: the Russians
occupied not just Kabul, but the whole country, quickly and (from their
point of view) painlessly. But the problems started afterwards, when they
found themselves faced with an intractable guerrilla war. The same was true
in 1992, when the Mujahedeen (basically, the same people as the present
Northern Alliance, occupied Kabul with surprising speed, only to be ejected
again three years later. Finally, the Taliban themselves staged a
lightening advance, as we have said, and dominated ninety percent of
Afghanistan, until the position was completely reversed, as is happening
before our eyes. 

Full: http://www.marxist.com/Asia/is_the_war_over.html


Louis Proyect
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