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K-cycle by Mike Alexander 18 August 2001 03:01 UTC |
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I thought I would start with some highlights of my Kondratiev (K-cycle)
research. I have no formal training (only a long-standing interest) in the
social sciences. I also had an interest as a youth in the natural sciences
and partly for financial reasons I chose formal training in this area (I have a
Ph. D. in chemical engineering and make my living in this field). But I
retain my interest in the social sciences. Because I am essentially
self-taught (or perhaps I should say net-taught--I expect to learn a lot here),
my knowledge is eclectic. I know a lot about the K-cycle and related
areas, but have huge gaps in areas that many of you may feel are closely
related.
The approach I take is that the K-cycle is essentially generational in
nature (at least wrt its length). After writing Stock Cycles last year I
thought I would next write a general book on generational cycles. My
approach to writing on these topics is to write up drafts of my ideas as
webpages so I can get input. Here is an early version of my chapter in
generational economic cycles:
It was so unwieldy I decided I would have to focus the book on just the
K-cycle. So this chapter got split into three and became the core of my
new book. If any folks with academic credentials would like to peer-review
my book, please e-mail me and I'll send you the Word 97 file (its about 850K
big). I have several copies out right now in peer-review right now.
Just remember, the book is for the general educated reader, not
specialists.
The URL above is very long and hard to follow, but it would be useful for
those who are already familiar with the K-cycle. It contains some nifty
methods for analysis like reduced prices and leading sectors/innovation
waves.
The popular economic writer Harry Dent came up with the innovation wave
concept. Here is a page I wrote back in Jan 2000 about innovation
waves.
Political scientists George Modelski and William Thompson have related
K-cycles to cycles of war and peace. They have a concept they call leading
sectors of the world economy, which is really the same thing as Dent's
innovation waves. So I worked up their leading sectors Dent-style to get
this:
You can see how the innovation/leading sector waves are spaced out at
K-cycle intervals. In my current book I add more cycles and take it back
to the early 14th century. It still works nicely. This is an example
of a non-price demonstration of the K-cycle.
The key element is the relation between the K-cycle and the generational
cycle first described by William Strauss and Neil Howe:
These are also early drafts (written last summer) and are very crude, but
they get across some of my ideas. The demographic stuff I have discarded
for now.
Anyways rather than present everything I thought I would give a sampling in
a single post and if there is interest follow up in detail in subsequent posts
(there's a lot more).
Mike Alexander, author of
Stock Cycles: Why stocks won't beat money markets over the next 20 years. http://www.net-link.net/~malexan/STOCK_CYCLES.htm |
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