Today in Europe

Julian Borger in Washington and Ian Black in Brussels
Saturday June 9, 2001
The Guardian 

The White House is scrambling to prevent President Bush's first official
visit to Europe becoming a debacle, at a time when profound differences over
the environment and defence have combined to produce the prickliest
US-European relationship for a generation. 
George Bush is due to fly on Tuesday to Spain, where he will be met with
protests by trade unions, environmentalists and human rights activists, and
then on to Brussels to defend his missile defence scheme in front of 18 Nato
allies deeply sceptical over plans to develop what they see as a dangerous
"son of star wars". 
But Mr Bush's most challenging test of statesmanship to date, will come on
Thursday when he flies to Gothenburg in Sweden, where an EU summit will be
virtually united in its criticism of his unilateral abandonment of the Kyoto
treaty on global warming. 
"The worst nightmare is having him go in there and have 15 heads of
government shouting at him," said one administration official. "That would
be your regular foreign policy disaster." 
In fact, there will be at least two sympathetic faces around the table:
Silvio Berlusconi, whose new Italian government shares Mr Bush's scepticism
about global warming, and Tony Blair, who disagrees profoundly with Mr Bush
on the environment but who is determined that the meeting be a success for
Britain's transatlantic mediation. 
Nevertheless, the dominant mood will be hostile and suspicious. Even Mr
Bush's first meeting with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, in Slovenia
next weekend, poses less of a challenge. 
"There is a rare level of toxicity," Dan Plesch, an analyst at the British
American Security Information Council. "These are the most severe
transatlantic disagreements since Suez." 
In Washington, a cabinet-level task-force has been given the job of crafting
interim policy guidelines for controlling emissions of greenhouse gases
which, according to the current plan, are due to be laid out by the
president in the Rose Garden of the White House on Monday. 
The White House is increasingly aware that the administration's brusque
rejection of Kyoto, a 1997 international accord to curb the build-up of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere - coupled with Mr Bush's withdrawal of a
campaign pledge to cut carbon dioxide emissions - has been a public
relations disaster both at home and abroad. 
Three senior cabinet meetings have been held in recent weeks in an attempt
to develop a US alternative to the Kyoto treaty and its country-by-country
targets for emissions reduction. 
It is usual in the Bush White House for Dick Cheney, the vice-president, to
prevail in such policy debates. He favours voluntary controls, but his
position has been hindered by the publication of a report by the National
Academy of Sciences, which overwhelmingly endorsed Europe's concerns over
global warming and its human causes. As a result, state department officials
have told European diplomats in Washington that "that battle isn't over". 
If the internal debate is not resolved, President Bush is expected to paper
over the divide. According to diplomats briefed by the administration, he
will acknowledge the reality of global warming. He may caution that some
scientific questions remain, but agree that concerted action is urgent
without specifying whether it should be compulsory or not. 
"In that case, it would represent a real step forward," said one European
diplomat. The Americans, British and Italians are hoping that these
incremental and symbolic concessions will be enough to prevent a showdown in
Gothenburg, and provide hope for further convergence at the next round of
global warming negotiations in Bonn in July. 
By comparison, the Nato summit in Brussels is likely to be a predictable
affair. Lord Robertson, the Nato secretary general, wants to keep the
missile defence debate low-key, clinging to the US promise to consult allies
and hoping that US domestic politics will mean the development of the
anti-ballistic system will take longer than previously estimated. 
But the Europeans are alarmed over yesterday's news that the White House is
examining a fast-track missile defence option which would have the first
interceptor missiles deployed by 2004. 
The Bush administration is also taking an increasingly tolerant view of
European plans to forge a rapid reaction force, which is seen in Washington
as the price of lightening the US security burden in Europe. 
But officials on both sides of the Atlantic also point out that away from
the headline-grabbing discord over Kyoto and missile defence, productive
transatlantic policy-making is under way. 
Specific problems such as new row about steel quotas are unlikely to come
up, and the emphasis in Gothenburg will be placed on a common interest in
preparing for a new global round of tariff reductions. 
"People are fed up with the most important relationship that Europe has
being portrayed in the media as nothing but a series of irritations," a
diplomat said. "It's not a fair reflection of a relationship that is very
close and of values that are widely shared. There's a tendency to focus on
the issues that divide us." 
However, the nagging problem for the optimists is that the points of
agreement are practical and short-term. The areas of deep discord, global
warming and the future of strategic defence, are both long-term and
fundamental. 
The issues 
Global warming EU still committed to Kyoto protocol. All 15 member states
reject Bush's preference for voluntary emissions control 
US missile defence programme No united EU position but grave concerns about
the plan 
EU defence Bush will reprimand Europeans for moving too slowly to boost
defence spending 
The Balkans Will agree to stay together in maintaining peacekeeping presence

Middle East The EU and US are formulating a joint position 
EU-US trade Romano Prodi will review prospects for a new round of trade
negotiations after the failure at Seattle in 1999. Specific disputes to be
avoided 
Kindest regards

Arno