Re: urgent question

Mine,
Check out Robert Wade on the differences of the Asian crisis.
Here are couple of refs. I have.
"From Miracle to Melthdown: Vulnerabilities, moral hazard, panic and debt
deflation in the Asian Crisis" downloadable at Sage Foundation site.
http://www.russellsage.org/publications/working_papers_asia.htm
"The Asian crisis: the high debt model vs the Wall Street Treasury-IMF
complex" with Frank Veneroso New Left review March-April 1998 (also on this
same site)
"The Asian debt-and-development crisis of 1997?" World Development August
1998
"From 'miracle' to "cronyism" explaining the Great Asian slump" Cambridge
Journal of Economics 1998, 22.
Hope this helps.
Mine Eder
----- Original Message -----
From: Hector E. Maletta <hmaletta@overnet.com.ar>
To: <mine25.1@netzero.net>
Cc: <wsn@csf.colorado.edu>; <ipe@csf.colorado.edu>
Sent: Friday, January 05, 2001 8:24 PM
Subject: Re: urgent question


> Mine,
> in 1974-75 the US government had abandoned the tenuous remains of the
> gold standard established at Bretton Woods. President Nixon decreed in
> 1971 that the Fed would no longer deliver one ounce of gold for every 35
> dollars presented by foreign central banks. He devalued the dollar to 44
> dollars per ounce of gold, and later let it float (the dollar value of
> an ounce of gold went speedily up during the following years, reflecting
> the declining real value of the dollar, which in turn reflected price
> inflation in the US). The price of gold peaked at about $800 in 1980,
> but then a vigorous anti-inflation policy was enacted by the Fed,
> inflation was reduced, and the price of gold stabilized around $300
> where it still remains (with oscillations between $270 and $350,
> reaching occasionally as much as $430).
> In this scenario, deflation was not expected. Instead, the US
> government negotiated the end of recession by inflationary means,
> especially under President Carter.
> The other effect remarked upon by Kemp, i.e. that "plants
> that proved unprofitable in the recession did not re-open in the
> boom:de-insdustrialization had begun. In response to the declining rate
> of
> profit at home, corporations sought higher profits by transferring
> manufacturing facilities to low wage countries" (p.184) also happened
> about that time, and was somewhat related, but is not to be confused
> with the former. It was bound to happen anyway, by reasons related to
> technological change, the gradual development of a world market after
> the long period of reconstruction and development since WWII, and the
> gradual liberalization of trade and investment that has already started.
>
> Kemp refers to "de-industrialization" in your quotation, and a word may
> be in order about that. Technological change, which in the 18th and 19th
> centuries caused the share of agricultural employment to diminish from
> about 75% to around 10% of the labor forcer, causes now a reduction also
> in the share of manufacturing, as more things can be physically produced
> by less people. This does not mean society is less industrial, on the
> contrary: there are more industrial goods produced per capita, and
> industry itself is subject to constant technical improvement in all
> respects. By "de-industrialization" it is often meant that less labor is
> demanded to produce those goods, as 200 years before the farm sector
> could gradually reduce its demand for labor while rapidly increasing
> farm output. This is a process governed by technological progress, and
> largely inevitable. It usually involves a protracted transition period,
> as large numbers of workers are leaving the manufacturing sector and
> find difficult to find jobs in other sectors of the economy (only the
> younger and brighter can, while many former blue-collar workers drift
> along in long spells of unemployment or underemployment till they retire
> or die).
>
> Within the service sector (whose share is the only one increasing) some
> services also reduce their share because of automation, while other
> services demand increasing amounts of labor. At some point, with
> services already absorbing about 70% of the labor force, there would be
> a need to create clear subcategories to distinguish between low-tech and
> high-tech services, new and traditional, or some other useful
> distinctions, instead of having more than 2/3 of the people lumped
> together in a large "tertiary sector". This is a subject worth another
> thread, however.
>
> The Asian crisis of 1997-98 happened in a totally different
> international environment, and I don't think the 1974-75 episode will
> throw much specific light on it, beyond the fact that a knowledge of
> historical developments and precedents is always useful.
>
> Hector Maletta
> Universidad del Salvador
> Buenos Aires, Argentina
>
> Mine Aysen Doyran wrote:
> >
> >
> > hi folks,
> >
> > I am reading Tom Kemp's _The Climax of  Capitalism: The US Economy in
> > the 20th century_. He says that one of the major causes of the world
> > economic crisis in the 1970s was inflationary pressures on dollar.
> > Then he continues by saying that "although  bearing a family
> > resemblance of previous recessions , that of 1974-5, differed  from
> > them in one salient aspect: there was no deflation; instead the dollar
> > continued to lose purchasing power and prices continued to rise. the
> > clearing of ground for recovery by a downward revaluation of assets
> > and the lowering of costs, thus restoring the profitability of
> > capital, did not happen in the classical manner. What did happen from
> > about this time was that plants  that proved unprofitable in the
> > recession did not re-open in the boom:de-insdustrialization had begun.
> > In response to the declining rate of profit at home, corporations
> > sought higher profits by transferring manufacturing facilities to low
> > wage countries". (p.184).
> >
> >
> > What the cause of  _asian crisis_ compared to above scenario?
> > inflation or deflation problem?
> >
> >
> > any help greatly appreciated!!!
> >
> >
> > bye
> >
> >
> > Mine
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> >
> > Mine Aysen Doyran
> > PhD Student
> > Department of Political Science
> > SUNY at Albany
> > Nelson A. Rockefeller College
> > 135 Western Ave.; Milne 102
> > Albany, NY 12222
> >   Shop Safely Online Without a Credit Card http://www.rocketcash.com
>