Re: role of Third World governments

Gernot and other comrades, thanks for the interesting posts in this 
thread. I'll try to get to more of them once I get a big writing 
chore done (a book manuscript that tries to tackle this same issue of 
international balance of forces pretty forthrightly, through the 
South African lens).

Anyhow, this one 'graf needs an update:

> From:          "g kohler" <gkohler@accglobal.net>
>                               In Latin America, resourceful Brazil and
>                               Argentina want to come closer to the US
>                               economically rather than identify themselves
>                               with the poor countries of Africa or the
>                               squabbling states of South Asia. . . .

South Africa Looks West for Some Economic Muscle
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/12/31/world/31AFRI.html

December 31, 2000

By HENRI E. CAUVIN

JOHANNESBURG, Dec. 26   South Africa, long dependent on Europe and the
United States for most of its trade, is casting its eyes elsewhere  
and not simply in search of new markets.

 Seeking allies in the free-trade fight that has been stewing since
the World Trade Organization's meeting a year ago in Seattle, South
Africa is turning to its fellow economic powers in the developing
world, looking east to India, north to Egypt and especially west to
Brazil.

 In a long step toward such an alliance, South Africa agreed this
month to begin talks on joining Mercosur, the six-country South
American trading bloc anchored by Brazil. 

 Little trade currently crosses the Atlantic between South Africa and
its prospective partners: modest amounts of industrial metals and
chemicals from South Africa and some transportation equipment and
other machinery from Brazil.

 Even if an agreement flourished, South America would be hard
pressed to supplant the United States or the European Union as a
more active trading partner. But in what South Africa and its
allies envision as a new era in trade, South America would be a
strategically essential partner for Africa's biggest and most
advanced economy. 

 Developing nations are increasingly frustrated by the developed
world's power in setting the standards for what is and is not fair
trade. They say that such standards, on issues like workers' rights
and environmental regulations, have hurt developing nations while
benefiting industrial ones, and many leaders across the developing
world say collective action is the only way to change that.

 In his first 18 months in office, President Thabo Mbeki has taken a
lead role in pushing for more economic solidarity among developing
nations, many of which are in the Southern Hemisphere. During a visit
to Brazil this month, he continued to push for South-South
cooperation. 

 "As developing countries, we have to radically restructure our
economic relations and increase economic cooperation, investments and
trade flows between our countries," Mr. Mbeki said in a speech on Dec.
15 to a Mercosur summit meeting in Florianopolis, Brazil. 

 Such efforts are the only hope for developing countries if they
want to gain ground with the world's economic powers when the next
round of world trade talks come around, Mr. Mbeki said. 

 "We will have to have a close and continuous tactical and
strategic interaction," he said. "We have no effective mechanism to
achieve this at present. Some of us in the developing world must
engage in a dialogue aimed at changing this situation." 

 Hammering out a free-trade pact between South Africa and Mercosur is
an integral part of that strategy, Tshediso Matona, South Africa's
chief trade negotiator, said in an interview. 

 "This notion of South-South cooperation has really been on a
rhetorical level," he said, "and we believe that by entering into
truly genuine and practical cooperation in trade, we will advance
South-South cooperation." 

 Michael McDonald, chief economist for the Steel and Engineering
Industries Federation in South Africa, said the trade meeting in
Seattle had given impetus to trade talks between countries like
Brazil and South Africa.

 "Before Seattle, the developing countries did not band together
for anything," he said. Now, they realize that going it alone is
not an option. "We can't push our weight that way," he said. "The only
way is through alliance and taking the moral high ground. The
developing countries got a raw deal in previous rounds, and we're
looking for something better." 

 Europe's agriculture market is where countries like South Africa and
Brazil are desperate to make inroads. With planting schedules that run
counter to the Northern Hemisphere's, the countries here in the South
should, they say, be a viable option for Europe. 

 But it has yet to happen. South Africa made little headway on
agriculture in its trade talks with the European Union, and Mr.
Matona says Mercosur will find it a very tough road when the South
Americans open talks with the Europeans. 

 For South Africa, six years into its post-apartheid existence, a
free- trade accord with Mercosur would mark its third such agreement,
after pacts with the European Union and South Africa's home base, the
Southern African Development Community. Mercosur, made up of Brazil,
Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and two associate members, Chile and
Bolivia, would offer South Africa more evenly matched trading partners
than either the European Union or the southern African group.

 Aside from South Africa, the regional development community is a
collection of small, mostly weak economies, and the limitations of
regional trading opportunities played a part in pushing South Africa
to look farther afield. Certainly neighbors like Botswana and
Mozambique have promising economies. But as markets for South Africa
and its 44 million people, Botswana is tiny, with just over a million
people, and Mozambique is desperately poor, with most people still
untouched by the country's remarkable recent economic growth.

 Zimbabwe, which should be a fertile market for South Africa but is
economically stagnant and politically unstable, is even less
promising. South Africa's biggest regional trading partner, Zimbabwe,
in fact accounts for only 3.5 percent of South Africa's total trade. 

 So as strategic as its courting of Mercosur is, South Africa
certainly hopes that along with the respect it is seeking, such an
agreement will yield more trade as well.  


Copyright 2000 The New York Times Company







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