RFE/RL Chris Walker More on Europe

EU ENLARGEMENT: MESSAGES SENT, MESSAGES RECEIVED

By Christopher Walker

        At a time when EU hopefuls in Eastern Europe are looking
for a sense of coherence and stability from EU decision-
makers, most of the recent messages from Brussels do not
inspire confidence. Denmark's rejection of the Euro last
month was one of two recent events that has altered the
political landscape with regard to European integration and
enlargement. The other event was the EU decision earlier this
year to impose sanctions on Austria.
        The Danish decision on the common currency and the EU
sanctions on Austria have likely compounded concern among the
Central European and Baltic candidates for EU membership that
smaller states are getting short shrift and that larger
states do not necessarily trust them. In arriving at their
recent "no" vote, Denmark may have drawn certain conclusions
from the Austrian episode. Accession states may, in turn,
draw their own conclusions from the Danish experience.
        The vote in Denmark came just two weeks after the
removal of diplomatic sanctions against Austria. EU member
states moved to lift the sanctions on Austria in advance of
the Danish referendum, in part to take away a potent issue
from opponents of Denmark's adoption of the common currency.
        At the same time, the EU's action to normalize relations
with Austria was taken to ease concerns that Vienna might
make good on its threats to obstruct EU business, including
enlargement efforts, so long as the sanctions remained in
place. Supporters of the sanctions within the EU had argued
that making an example of Austria for its inclusion of Joerg
Haider's right-wing Freedom Party in the governing coalition
would be an effective way of sending a message to capitals
far beyond Vienna. By virtually any measure, the sanctions
strategy backfired and turned Austria into an example of an
entirely different category, namely that of tread-upon,
smaller Member State.
        The Austrian episode and the Danish rejection of the
common currency have taken place at a delicate time with
regard to the enlargement process and the position of
accession states.
        France currently holds the EU presidency, a term will
culminate with the December Inter-Governmental Conference
(ICG) in Nice. Many of the institutional reform issues on the
agenda relate to enlargement of the union and tend to pit
larger member states against smaller ones. All in all, this
reform effort will require significant sacrifices from
smaller states in order to be successful. Major agenda items
for the IGC in December include reassessing the size of the
European commission, the extension of the qualified majority
vote, the reweighting of votes according to GDP and
population, and the establishment of an "enhanced
cooperation" clause.
        For the EU countries that took the lead on punishing
Vienna, the diagnosis of the basis for Joerg Haider's
popularity was only partly correct. The attempted cure--
diplomatic sanctions--exacerbated the problem, causing
Austria's spine to stiffen and simultaneously reinforcing the
notion that EU powers can take seemingly capricious action
against smaller countries. Haider's fulmination on minorities
and immigration attracts most of the international attention,
but his recent success also is an expression of popular
frustration with the thick bureaucracy and insular politics
that represent a considerable part of the Austrian
establishment. Indeed, this is precisely the condition that
many citizens in other EU countries associate with Brussels,
not to mention many of their own national governments.
        This "democracy deficit," which is at the heart of the
problem in Europe, manifests itself in different forms within
the EU and in accession states. There has been as ongoing
effort "to bring citizens closer to the EU" by improving
transparency and decision-making procedures. This issue
remains a top item on the union's agenda. For post-Soviet
accession states, there are still large questions relating to
the consolidation of democracy and the strengthening of
"European identity."
        While many citizens of EU member states are dissatisfied
with the remote and secretive nature of EU governance, the
gulf between citizens and elites in many accession countries
is enormous, much of it the legacy of the Soviet system. For
Hungarians, Czechs, Latvians, Lithuanians, and others in
Central and Eastern Europe, the promise of the EU has been to
anchor their countries in the West. But to the extent that
the EU appears to prefer defending the interests of larger,
more influential member states, the accession states,
especially smaller ones, may find joining the ranks of the
union less enticing.

The author is a New York-based analyst specializing in
European affairs.

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