Heilbroner, Visions of the Future

On the subject of utopia and visions, here are some excerpts from
Heilbroner.

REFERENCE:
Robert Heilbroner, _Visions of the Future_: The Distant Past, Yesterday,
Today, and Tomorrow. New York, USA: Oxford University Press, 1995

By "distant past", Heilbroner means the last 100,000 years, by "yesterday"
the last 250 years, "today" = today, and "tomorrow" is the utopian horizon.
Each has a chapter in the book.

"In four respects Today stands in contrast to Yesterday [sc. the last 250
years]. First, the future has regained some of the inscrutability it
possessed during the Distant Past [sc. last 100,000 years]. Second, the
marriage of science and technology has revealed dangerous and dehumanizing
consequences that were only intuitively glimpsed, not yet experienced, by
our forebears of Yesterday. Third, the new socioeconomic order proved to be
less trustworthy than when it appeared during the late eighteenth and early
nineteenth centuries. And last, the political spirit of liberation and
self-determination has gradually lost its inspirational innocence. Hence the
anxiety that is so palpable an aspect of Today. In sharp contrast with both
the resignation of the Distant Past and the optimism of Yesterday." (p.
113-114)

Arising from his views on history, Heilbroner develops a vision of the
future. By "vision" he means: "It is a vision that seeks to describe what
might lie within the reach of humankind..."(p. 115) There are three parts of
the vision:

Part 1 (econ-ecol and North-South): "humankind must achieve a secure
terrestrial base for life ... It entails the absence of any socio-economic
order, whether called capitalist or other, whose continuance depends on
ceaseless accumulation ... [sc. and] .... the elimination of the divide
between the poverty-stricken and the wealthy regions of the globe." (p.
116-117)

Part 2 (political-military): "preserving the human community as a whole
against its warlike proclivities. Two quite opposite extremes might achieve
this end. The first is effective global government; the second is its
abolition ... " (p.117)

Part 3 (kultura): "... respect for 'human nature' is given the cultural and
educational centrality it demands. What is meant ... is an awareness of the
complex role that unconscious drives and fantasies play in the determination
of our behavior .... require a citizenry aware of the hidden attractions of
both power and submissiveness, of the fine line between rationality and
paranoia ..." (p.118)

OBSERVATIONS:
(1) These visions are backed up by a discussion of 100,000 years of world
history.
(2) Heilbroner's package does not include a praxeology (strategy, tactics).
(3) Culture: The third part of H.'s vision attaches importance to the
psychological-cultural side of humankind. It is extremely important,
according to Heilbroner. (This seems to be his response to 20th century
barbarism, Hitlerism, Stalinism, Hiroshima, etc.)
(4) Ecological concerns are given a prominent place in these visions of the
future.


Gert Kohler
Oakville, Canada