Re: some topics

On Sat, 20 May 2000, The McDonald Family wrote:

|>- since the collapse of European state socialism, has there been any
|>discernible sign of upward mobility (toward the core of the world 
|economy)? 
|>--> if no, why is that? if yes, where?
|
|I may be an optimist, but I think that there are signs of this. Central
|Europe, the Southern Cone states, and the islands and peninsulas of East
|Asia (Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia/Singapore, arguably Thailand and portions of
|coastal China) could be expected to attain Spanish levels of output and
|living standards relative to the core over the next generation. I agree 
|that
|wouldn't be enough dispersion of wealth to prevent some kind of cataclysm
|later in the 21st century. 


As for central Europe, I sure don't see this (in spite of a recent, modest
rebound in the Polish and Hungarian GDP/cap). See it for yourself:


Changes in Country-by-Country Ranking along the Human Development Index,
1990-1994

========================================================
Country         HDI rank in 1990        HDI rank in 1994
________________________________________________________
Albania                 49                      102
Bulgaria                33                       69
Croatia / Yugoslavia    34                       77
Czech Republic 
  / Czechoslovakia      27                       39
Hungary                 30                       48
Macedonia / Yugoslavia  34                       80
Poland                  41                       58
Romania                 58                       79
Slovakia 
  / Czechoslovakia      27                       42
Slovenia / Yugoslavia   34                       35
========================================================


HDI=Human Development Index (combo of life expectancy,
education and health measures)

HDI rank= position of country in the global list of countries
(1=top). Countries split in the interim are compared to their
predecessor state.

Source: Tbl 1 in my paper in Smith-Solinger-Topik: States and Sovereignty
in the Global Economy, Routledge, 1999, p.204. 

Data from UNDP 1991 and 1997: Human Development Report 1991 & 1997. New
York: UN Devt Program.


Jozsef