further comments on Chase Dunn, Barendse, Stremlin et al.

I would like to thank all participants for their contributions for a serious
debate. I would like to include here some very up-to-date link-ups on some
of the issues we are facing in the context of the Chase-Dunn/Boswell
hypothesis.

1) Quite frankly, I think that any serious debate must confront ongoing,
already existing armed conflicts in the world. 
To ignore them, is scientifically untenable and morally wrong. Still, the
best site for world news is, I think, BBC world service which you might
serach by using

http://www.bbc.co.uk/search/

also the Le Monde Diplomatique search engine in English is quite powerful:

http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/

Most, but not all articles are freely accessible (You will be luckier in
using the French language search engine at):

http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/


One of their major predictions for future conflicts is:

http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1997/09/marcos
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1997/07/nato
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1997/10/caspian
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1997/10/caucasus
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1997/11/usmil

Indeed, NATO's forward strategy vis-a-vis Russia could have blocked, in
retrospect, any real democratic alternatives in that country. 150 billion of
barrels of crude oil are a good motive for expansion of Western Interests
into the Caucasus...


2) Russia.

Russia comes out from the turbo-capitalist post-transformation depression.
Quite frankly again, anyone predicting a German US war in the next 40 years
must stand up to the question - and what about, say, Russias position in the
Caucasus? What about US-Russian rivalry over oil in the Caspian Sea? What
about Russian positions (correct or not) over the Kosovo war?

http://www.rferl.org/
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1998/11/02lewin

read also Michael Shafirs very thoughtul series on radical politics in
Eastern Europe
http://www.rferl.org/eepreport/index.html

or the further resources on chauvinism in Russia today

http://www.amber.ucsf.edu/homes/ross/public_html/russia_/nat.txt
http://www.adl.org/russia/russian_political_antisemitism_3.html
http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/1999/11/f.ru.991124143447.html
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1998/11/03frioux


3) The Indo-Pakistani-conflict is constantly overlooked as a possible future
trigger of major confrontations. The following internet resources could be
helpful for a serious debate and peace-action:

http://uk.fc.yahoo.com/k/kashmir.html
http://www.cdi.org/adm/1214/
http://www.nci.org/ind-pak.htm
http://www.angelfire.com/sd/urdumedia/peace.html
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1998/10/04afghan

5) Fundamentalism

Find this very helpful Le Monde Diplomatique English language website on
that otherwise, often overdone issue

http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1998/06/05gresh2
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1999/09/16islam

with very interesting, sometimes freely accessible link-ups


4) The western intelligence community and defense establishment quite
clearly establish a connection between the new power structure in Russia and
the old apparatus. The Cold War is easier to re-invent than a German or
Japan real or perceived threat

http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/countries/Russia/russia2000/putinmaintemp.htm
http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/countries/Russia/russia2000/putin3.htm
http://www.defenselink.mil/speeches/1999/s19990923-secdef.html
http://www.defenselink.mil/
http://newsweek.com/nw-srv/printed/int/dept/ps/a33715-1999oct8.htm
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1998/06/04gresh1
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1998/06/11russia
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1999/12/07sapir
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1998/03/10russia


On the Pentagon search for visible enemies, see:

http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1997/11/usmil

on US arms manufacturing:

http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1997/09/boeing

Putin is precisely the figure that ideally fits their needs and
imaginations.



5) Germany:

First, the official website of Joschka Fischer's ministry:

http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/1_fremsp/Startsei/index.htm

your might also find the following article very helpful:

http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/cgi-bin/htsearch?config=htdigdiplo&words=jo
schka+fischer&Envoi=recherche

Austria, Italy, other European countries:

The following documentations might be interesting in the context of the
Chase Dunn/Boswell debate:

http://www.multimedia.calpoly.edu/libarts/mriedlsp/Publications/eeq.html
http://www.multimedia.calpoly.edu/libarts/mriedlsp/Publications/GSA99/GSA99.
html
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1998/05/09raff
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1998/05/05fnsh
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1998/11/14yugo1
http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1998/04/01leader

(with the necessary link-ups to other important articles)

Summa summarum: world system research and the democratic political left
should be of course on the watch-out everywhere, but the main centers of
conflict in world society will be on the lines, predicted by me, amongst
others, as early as 1993 in my Macmillan book on the Socio-Liberal Theory of
Development.

Kind regards

Arno Tausch

PS: Andre Gunder Frank, in a personal reaction, sent to me, got my point on
19th century Germany completely wrong. Indeed, all German nationalist
ideologues, including Richard Wagner or Wilhelm Busch, helped to form a
pattern of antisemitism, and chauvinism. Jona Goldhagen is right in calling
it eliminatory anti-semitism. But read

http://www.amber.ucsf.edu/homes/ross/public_html/russia_/nat.txt

for comparison with Russia today!