Comment on Chris Chase Dunn and Terry Boswell

Chris sent us a very interesting posting indeed. First of all thanks. We all
will click amazon.com to get the book as fast as possible.

I agree with almost everything what Chris says. Of course, I will have to
read the book. But where I am in total disagreement with his prediction of a
major war between the US and Japan or Germany in the next 20 or 30 years. I
always have maintained, that under the conditions of turbo-capitalism,
social devastation in large parts of the world and unequal exchange, let
alone global climatic changes, Russia, China, and Fundamentalism in the
Islamic world will be the challengers of US dominance.

What we have to learn from the 19th Century and before that, from the 18th
century, is the role of ideology and hatred in the preparation of war.
Daniel Jona Goldhagen in his critique of 19th century German culture is
absolutely right. Richard Wagner was very instrumental in creating the
climate of hatred; but not only him. Wilhelm Busch with his infamous
children's books portrayed the bad guys (the boys Max and Moritz) made into
soap in the end.

Future Germany, however and America will quarrel about world trade etc. but
there is nothing of the type of contemporary Djihad writing, the very
aggressive new Russian nuclear doctrine, or the long-range maritime Chinese
power build-up in contemporary Germany or Japan, and I am afraid, future
conflicts over Taiwan will become a rough awakening for all those who still
see Germany (and Europe) as the main future enemy of the US. Still,
inter-capitalist rivalry, very much like the one between France and Britain
before WW I, will grow.

I compiled some interesting websites for the further debate. I of course
offer these sources, without necessarily identifying with them:

overall military expenditure and arms transfer data:

http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/wmeat97/wmeat97.html

On my counter-hypothesis against the Germany/Japan-thesis

http://www.aril.org/galtung.htm
(Galtung on Islam and world religions)

http://hdc-www.harvard.edu/cfia/cfiapubs/annrpt/harvaracad.html
(on Professor Bassam Tibi, Harvard and Göttingen University, the world's
foremost expert on Djihad and Fundamentalism)

furthermore on Bassam Tibi:

for: the author(s) are like "Tibi, Bassam" 
Related Areas: Search Auctions and the rest of Amazon.com for "Tibi, Bassam"
11 items are shown below. 
Arab Nationalism : Between Islam and the Nation-State ~ Usually ships in 2-3
days 
        Bassam Tibi / Hardcover / Published 1997 
        Our Price: $59.95 
Arab Nationalism : Between Islam and the Nation-State ~ Usually ships in 2-3
days 
        Bassam Tibi / Paperback / Published 1997 
        Our Price: $19.95 
        Read more about this title... 
The Challenge of Fundamentalism : Political Islam and the New World Disorder
(Comparative Studies in Religion and Society, No 9) ~ Usually ships in 24
hours 
        Bassam Tibi / Hardcover / Published 1998 
        Our Price: $29.95 
        Read more about this title... 
Conflict and War in the Middle East : From Interstate War to New Security ~
Usually ships in 2-3 days 
        Bassam Tibi / Paperback / Published 1998 
        Our Price: $21.95 
Arab Nationalism : A Critical Enquiry 
        Bassam Tibi, et al / Hardcover / Published 1990 
        Our Price: $49.95 (Special Order) 
Arab Nationalism : A Critical Enquiry 
        Bassam Tibi, et al / Paperback / Published 1991 
        Our Price: $19.95 (Special Order) 
Conflict and War in the Middle East : From Interstate War to New Security 
        Bassam Tibi / Hardcover / Published 1998 
        Our Price: $69.95 (Special Order) 
        Read more about this title... 
Conflict and War in the Middle East, 1967-91 : Regional Dynamic and the
Superpowers 
        Bassam Tibi, Clare Krojzl (Translator) 
        Read more about this title... 
The Crisis of Modern Islam : A Preindustrial Culture in the
Scientific-Technological Age 
        Bassam Tibi 
        Read more about this title... 
Islam and the Cultural Accommodation of Social Change 
        Bassam Tibi 
        Read more about this title... 
Islam and the Cultural Accommodation of Social Change 
        Bassam Tibi 
        Read more about this title... 



http://www.nyu.edu/globalbeat/nuclear/Sriva0899.html
(Srivastava on Russian re-evaluations of the ABM treaty)

http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/1998/03/f.ru.980320113504.html
(Csongos on Russian Nuclear doctrine)

Chinese military and navy:

http://www.fortunecity.com/tattooine/vonnegut/172/han_xia_kilo_song.htm
http://www.heritage.org/library/categories/forpol/asc146.html
http://chinasite.com/Military.html
http://www.warships1.com/Chinese_carriers.htm
http://www.auburn.edu/~benjadp/thesis/thep2.html
http://home1.gte.net/devaalx2/china_analysis_web.htm
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3803f9345cf0.htm
http://pc-78-120.udac.se:8001/WWW/Nautica/Pointers/Navy.html
http://www.phoaks.com/phoaks2/newsgroups/sci/military/naval/resources0.html

http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/bureau_pm/reports_pm.html
http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/bureau_ac/wmd_ac.html


Anything of that sort ever heard from Joschka Fischer or Gerhard Schröder,
friends?:

The Guardian (UK)30 April 30, 1999[for personal use only] Yeltsin ups
nuclear ante Russia plans to develop new tactical missiles amid anger at
Nato bombingcampaignBy Tom Whitehouse in Moscow

Boris Yeltsin flexed Russia's ageing but formidable nuclear musclesyesterday
and ordered the development of new tactical nuclear missiles tocounter a
perceived increased threat from Nato. 'Our nuclear forces were and remain a
key element in the country's strategyfor ensuring national security and
military power,' the Russian presidentsaid. At a meeting with the United
Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan, at theKremlin yesterday he also
denounced the 'lawlessness and unlimited force'of the United States.
According to the secretary of his security council, Vladimir Putin,
MrYeltsin later signed three decrees covering 'the development of the
nuclearweapons complex and a concept for developing and using
non-strategicnuclear weapons'. Mr Putin said that new weapons would be
tested using computers to avoidRussia breaking its commitment not to conduct
nuclear tests. Shortly before Mr Putin announced the new defence initiative,
Mr Yeltsin stressed its secrecy. 'Everyone, including the president, risks
his head if something leaks,' he said. Yesterday's meeting of the advisory
security council was a public effort byMr Yeltsin to show his anger at the
Nato campaign in Kosovo and to deflectdomestic criticism of the apparent
failure of his pro-western foreign policy. Russian defence specialists now
see Nato as an aggressive alliance posing adirect threat to Russian
interests, which must be countered by enhancingthe nuclear deterrent. 'All
the military elite and all the political elite now see the west as themain
threat,' said Pavel Felgenhauer, a defence writer for Segodnyanewspaper.
'Nato has decided Russia's future: efforts will be intensified to create
anew generation of nuclear weapons, there will be no drastic cut in
existingstrategic missiles. The Start II disarmament treaty is dead.' The
ministry of defence has already decided to postpone the retirement of some
Delta nuclear attack submarines and extend the life of SS18 'Satan'
intercontinental missiles. But the proposed development of smaller tactical
missiles is significantbecause it signals a radical shift in Russian defence
strategy - toward anuclear first-strike capability. Under this doctrine,
instead of deploying strategic (intercontinental)missiles, to be used in
retaliation for a western nuclear attack, shorterrange tactical nuclear
missiles could be used against attacks fromconventional weapons. Even at the
height of the cold war, Russian policy was to strike only inresponse to a
first use of nuclear force by Nato. Ironically, the newRussian defence
strategy is almost identical to Nato's 'flexible response'policy which envis
aged Nato using tactical nuclear weapons first, inresponse to a Soviet
invasion using conventional weapons. 'We must definitely include a provision
in our defence doctrine to theeffect that Russia reserves the right to
deliver a first or pre-emptivenuclear strike, but not necessarily with
strategic missiles,' said GeneralRoman Popkovitch, the chairman of the
Russian parliament's defence committee. The sound of defence industrialists
smacking their lips at the tastyprospect of new orders has been growing
louder since the bombing ofYugoslavia began. But even if all political
forces, including liberal parties such asYabloko, favour this dramatic shift
in defence strategy, its implementationcould be blocked by simple lack of
money. Russia's military budget is fifty times smaller than that of the US
andthere is no simple way of raising more cash, given the state of the
economy. 'Russia can only stop being naive and start being stronger
economically andthus militarily, even though this is not easy,' said
Vladimir Lukin, theforeign affairs spokesman for Yabloko. Since Mikhail
Gorbachev agreed to decommission the Oka tactical nuclearmissile and all
facilities used to produce it in 1987, Russia has had onlya few tactical
missiles with too short a range to meet European targets. Plans to deploy
Oka's successor, the Iskander, which could reach Europe iffired from
Russia's Kaliningrad outpost, are ready for implementation butwill cost
hundreds of millions of pounds. 

rember my 1998 Transnational Integration paper at the archive:

Hegemonial wars in the world system from 1495 onwards

Role in War Thirty Years War Napoleonic WW I+II

losing hegemonic contender Hapsburgs France Germany

new hegemon Netherlands Britain USA

newly emerging challenger: eco- nomically deci- mated member of winning
coalition France Germany China+ Russia

past contender for systemic hegemony, joining the war effort of the winning
coalition
Portugal Sweden Hapsburgs France 

So - any new world system study on Anglo-French relations before WWI would
be highly interesting


Kind regards, and peace,

Arno Tausch