The capitalist world economy and social development in the 1980s and beyond.

Appendix

Samples and data

List of variables
The general model of world development, based on 123 nations

Indicators of globalisation:

aid dependency (UNDP, 1994) net per capita aid in $. Donor countries are listed according to their donations per capita and are recorded as ( - )

export processing zones (Bailey et al., 1993). The variable codes the number of export processing zones per country at the beginning of the 1990s

migration dependency (UNDP, 1993) net worker remittances per GNP/GDP at the beginning of the 1990s

MNC penetration index: penetration by transnational capital, weighted by population and capital stock, mid - 1970s (Bornschier/Heintz, 1979, based on OECD)

share of outward FDI stock in gross domestic product in 1985 (UNCTAD, 1996. For a very small number of countries, regional averages had to be taken to substitute for the few, missing values)

terms of trade index 1987 - 90 (UNDP, 1994, Weltalmanach, 1994, based on UN)

trade dependency index: exports plus imports as % of GDP 1990 (UNDP, 1993/94)

vulnerability of a nation in terms of the expansion of the new international division of labor, 1990 (share of women in the national labor force) (UNDP, 1993/94)

Indicators for the institutional environment:

ethno - linguistic fractionalization index, mid - 1960s (Bornschier/Heintz, 1979, based on Taylor/Hudson). Ethnic discrimination is thought to be the purest form of a 'distribution coalition'

government consumption per GDP, 1990 (UNDP, 1993/94)

government expenditures per GNP, 1991 (UNDP, 1993/94; UNICEF, Regional Monitoring Report, 1, 11, 1993, see Cornia, 1993; World Resources Research Institute)

public investment in the preceding Kondratieff cycle (Bornschier/Heintz)

total area in thousands of square kilometers (World Bank, WDR, 1994. This variable measures the role, that territory and resources could play for attracting foreign capital)

violation of civil rights, 1991 (Stiftung, 1993/94, based on Freedom House, combining freedom of religion, the press, freedom of assembly and association, freedom of trade unions, the right to property and equality before the law)

violation of political rights index, 1991 (Stiftung, 1993/94, based on Freedom House, combining free elections, role of the elected parliament in political decision making, party competition, protection of minorities)

world political threats to a country, to be measured by the percentage of armed forces per population. Some neo - liberals maintain that world political threats increase the growth potential of a nation. Due to the skewness of the indicator, the natural logarithm ln (MPR+1) has to be taken (calculated from UNDP, 1993/94; see also: Weede, 1985)

years of membership in the United Nations (coded from Weltalmanach, 1995)

Indicators for the social policy approach:

human development index (UNDP, 1994) as an indicator for the quality of past social policy

increase/decrease of fertility rates 1960 - 90 (UNDP, 1993/94)

life expectancy at birth as an indicator for the quality of past social policy, 1990 (UNDP, 1993/94 and World Bank, WDR, 1994)

share of women in the membership of national legislature (lower house) (UNDP, 1993/94)

social security benefits expenditure as % of GDP in the era of the evolving contemporary Kondratieff cycle, 1985 - 90 (UNDP, 1994). Social security benefits expenditures include here the compensations for the loss of income for the sick and the temporarily disabled; payments to the elderly, the permanently disabled and the unemployed; they also include family, maternity and child allowances and the cost of welfare services. The UNDP data collection is based on ILO sources

total fertility rate (most recent estimate) (UNDP, 1993/94)

total number of inhabitants, divided by the surface area of a country (population density). Due to the skewness of the indicator, the squared root (population density^.50) had to be taken (calculated from UNDP, 1993/94)

violation of civil rights, 1991 (Stiftung, 1993/94, based on Freedom House)

violation of political rights index, 1991 (Stiftung, 1993/94, based on Freedom House)

The dependent variables of the general models

absolute income growth (growth in the sense of Arrighi’s and Amin’s theory) 1960-1990. This measure is the simple difference between real purchasing power parity rate per capita incomes in US $ 1990 and 1960 (UNDP, 1993 ff.)

adjustment 1965/80 - 80/93(calculated from UNDP, 1993/94/96). Adjustment is calculated by a simple, standard linear regression model of growth 1965-80 predicting growth in the period 1980/93. The residuals from this regression are the ‘adjustment scores’

capability poverty measure (CPM - value) (UNDP, 1996. The measure weights unattended births, underweight children, and female illiteracy. It is regarded by the UNDP as a direct measure of absolute poverty)

deforestation rate (UNDP, 1993 - 95; World Bank, 1995; World Resources Research Institute). The index measures annual rates of deforestation in the 1980s in %. Because of missing data, a number of countries had to be coded by the LDC average or the OECD average

destabilization index (coded according to Weltalmanach, 1995. The indicator codes all those countries as '1' (destabilized), that have entries about serious armed internal or external conflict in 1994. The rest is coded as '0'

employment (UNDP, 1994) labor force as % of total population

ethno - warfare (Gurr, 1994) magnitude of ethno - political conflict. The scores are country sums of the squared roots of the deaths (in 10s of thousands) from ethno - political conflict 1993 - 94 plus refugees (in 100s of thousands). Countries with no entries according to Gurr's main research results, 1994, are coded as '0'

forest area per total land area (UNDP, 1993 - 95). In contrast to the above indicator, that measures flows, this measure rather captures stocks of already existent forest destruction. Agricultural land per total land area has to be taken into consideration as an independent variable, because else the regression equations would be biased by a desert - factor

gender empowerment measure (UNDP, 1995. The index weights seats held by women in parliament, the percentage share of women and managers, the share of women in the professional and technical workforce, and the share of women in total earned income

gender - related development index (GDI) (UNDP, 1995) - dimension female life chances. This index was developed by the UNDP especially for the 1995 women's conference in Beijing. The index weights the share of earned income for females and males, the gender - specific life expectancies, the gender - specific adult literacy rates, and the gross primary, secondary and tertiary enrollment ratios. It ranges theoretically from 0.0 to 0.999, with Sweden (0.919) at the top of the international scale, and Afghanistan (0.169) at the bottom. Since there unfortunately no were no data for Dominica, Grenada, Antigua, Seychelles, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, Saint Kits, Belize, South Africa, Oman, Jordan, Gabon, Solomon Islands, Sao Tome, Congo, Rwanda, Bhutan, Angola, Mauritania, Somalia, Gambia, Germany and Israel, we had to substitute these missing values with averages for the socio - economic groups concerned: a) the industrialized democracies (gender development index average 0.87) b) developing countries with a Human Development Index above 0.6 (in our 123 nations analysis: Barbados to Tunisia, gender development index average 0.721) c) developing countries with a Human Development Index from 0.599 to 0.389 (Oman to Egypt, gender development index average 0,542) d) developing countries with a Human Development Index under 0.388 (except for the very least developed countries; Kenya to Sierra Leone; gender development index average 0.33) and e) the very least developed countries Benin, Guinea Bissau, Chad, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Sierra Leone with a gender development index of 0.2. This procedure can be regarded only as a first approximation and should be substituted in future research

GNP per capita growth (1965 - 1980 and 1980 - 90/1980 - 92, 1980 - 93) (UNDP, 1993/94/95/96; Fischer Weltalmanach) - dimension growth

greenhouse index, 1989 (greenhouse index per 10 million people, UNDP, 1994. The greenhouse index measures the net emissions of three major greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane and chlorofluorocarbons. The index weights each gas according to it’s heattrapping quality in carbon dioxide equivalents and expresses them in metric tons of carbon per capita) - dimension environmental quality/degradation

human development index (HDI) (UNDP, 1994)
income distribution (Moaddel, 1994. The measure focuses on the share of the top 20% in total incomes in over 80 countries. Wherever possible, Moaddel’s data were updated by World Bank WDR, 1994, 1995 and 1996). For the calculation of the relationship with income distribution, a reduced sample ofthe n = 123 world sample with complete data was taken

increase in life expectancy 1960 - 90 (calculated from UNDP, 1993/94 via a regression procedure, predicting 1990 life expectancy on 1960 life expectancy, and then taking the residuals as growth rates) - dimension redistribution and human development
mean years of schooling of the population aged 25 and > (UNDP, 1993 and 1994)

mobility in the international system (calculated from UNDP, 1993 ff.) This indicator is the difference in relative positions of a country on the PPP $ per capita income scale in 1990 (USA = 100) vis-à-vis 1960 (USA = 100)

violation of civil rights, 1991 (Stiftung, 1993/94, based on Freedom House) - dimension democracy

violation of political rights index, 1991 (Stiftung, 1993/94, based on Freedom House) - dimension democracy

mobility in the international system (calculated from UNDP, 1993 ff.) This indicator is the difference in relative positions of a country on the PPP $ per capita income scale in 1990 (USA = 100) vis-à-vis 1960 (USA = 100)

The models based on 134 countries

% labor force participation ratio (UNDP, 1996)

% of the labor force in agriculture (UNDP, 1996; Fischer Weltalmanach, 1996)

% of the labor force in industry (see: labor force agriculture)

absolute GNP (UNDP, 1996)

absolute income growth (growth in the sense of Arrighi’s and Amin’s theory) 1960-1990.

agricultural share in GDP (UNDP, 1996; Fischer Weltalmanach, 1996)

average population growth (UNDP, 1996)

economic growth 80 - 93, pc. and year (UNDP, 1996)

EU membership years (Fischer Weltalmanach, 1995, 1996)

FDI per GDP (UNCTAD, 1996; Business Central Europe, 1996)

human development index (UNDP)

income distribution: share of top 20% in total incomes (World Bank WDR 1996; UNDP 1996; Moaddel 1994; the few missing cases were substituted with the means from linear trendline estimates, based on the countries with complete data, using mean years of schooling and population growth as predictor variables)

infant mortality rates, 1993 (UNDP, 1996)

inflation 93 (UNDP, 1996)

main telephone lines per 100 population (UNDP, 1996)

mean years of schooling, population aged >25y

military expenditures per GDP (UNDP, 1996)

state sector size (gov. expenditures per GDP; UNDP 1996; Weltalmanach, 1995, 1996; World Resources Institute)

structural heterogeneity (labor force share in agriculture divided by product share of agriculture; see labor force data)

total fertility rate (UNDP, 1996)

UN membership years (Weltalmanach, 1996, 1995)

violation of political rights (1, democracy, to 7, dictatorship) (Stiftung Entwicklung und Frieden, 1996, based on Freedom House)

violations of civil rights (see political rights)

war years (from D. Smith, 1997)

years of Communist Rule (Autorenkollektiv; Weltalmanach)

Development as a function of the Human Development Index

As to the variable definitions, see above and elsewhere in this Appendix.

The instability model based on 99 countries

Sample: determined by data availability from Gurr (1994: ethno-political strife score), World Bank (1994: transfers per capita) and UNDP HDR (1993: social data)

adult literacy rate (UNDP, HDR, 1993)

ethno-political strife (Gurr, 1994)

failure of demographic transition (fertility rates at the end of the 1980s are explained in a standard linear OLS regression by fertility rates around 1960. The residuals from that regression, viz. fertility rates still above the world-wide trends of fertility reduction, are interpreted as the failure of demographic transition. Original data from UNDP, HDR, 1993)

historical fertility rate (fertility rate in 1960; UNDP, HDR, 1993)

human development index (UNDP, HDR, 1993)

mean years of schooling (UNDP, HDR, 1993)

natural logarithm of of per capita income, squared; ln PCI^2 (UNDP, HDR, 1993)

natural logarithm of of per capita income; ln PCI (UNDP, HDR, 1993)

political rights violations (Stiftung Entwicklung und Frieden, 1993, based on Freedom House)

population density^0.50 (UNDP, HDR, 1993)

repressiveness of the security apparatus (civil rights violations are predicted in a standard linear OLS regression by political rights violations. The residuals from that regression, viz. civil rights violations in excess of political rights violations, are interpreted as the repressiveness of the security apparatus. Original data from Stiftung Entwicklung und Frieden, 1993, based on Freedom House)

transfers per capita (calculated from World Bank World Development Report, 1994)

Corruption levels in 47 countries

From the 52 countries of the Transparency International study (Polityka, 32, 1998: 34 - 35, Warsaw) we used only those nations that had fairly complete predictor variables for our n = 134 world sample. The sample and the data thus was defined as follows:

Country absence of corruption level

Canada	9,1
USA	7,61
Japan	6,57
NL	9,03
NOR	8,92
SF	9,48
France	6,66
Nigeria	1,76
Swed	9,35
Spain	5,9
Australia	8,86
Belgium	5,25
Austria	7,61
NZ	9,1
CH	8,61
UK	8,22
DK	9,94
GER	8,23
IRE	8,28
ITA	5,03
GRE	5,35
ISR	7,97
LUX	8,61
India	2,75
POR	6,97
HUNG	5,18
Pakistan	2,53
POL	5,08
RUS	2,27
Costa Rica	6,45
Uruguay	4,14
Chile	6,5
Singapore	8,66
ROM	3,44
Mexico	2,66
Colombia	2,23
Thailand	3,06
Malaysia	5,01
China	2,88
Indonesia	2,72
Philippines	3,05
ALB	2,81
Turkey	3,21
Hong Kong	7,28
Brazil	3,56
Venezuela	2,77
S-Korea	4,29

The models based on 49 Polish voivodships

variables taken from the Polish Central Statistical Office and from the daily Polish Press:

big estates (> 25 ha) per total land

percent employment in agriculture

percent employment in foreign capital enterprises per total employment

percent employment in mixed enterprises per total employment

external migration per total population

female excess infant mortality rates (based on regression residuals of male on female infant mortality rates in the different voivodships of the country). Voivodships are said to have an excess female infant mortality, when the regression residual is positive

human development index

industrial employment

industrial waste

private land per total land

real GDP per capita

religious practice

urbanization

voting data on a voivodship level for all the elections and referenda since 1993

wage level

Excess mortality in the Polish provinces

Original data: Stat. Yearbooks, Poland

Column (1) male infant mortality rate per voivodship

Column (2) female infant mortality rate per voivodship

Column (3) female infant mortality, predicted by linear ordinary least square regression on male infant mortality rates, all per voivodship

Column (4) implicit ‘excess female infant mortality’: real female infant mortality minus predicted female infant mortality rate per voivodship

(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	voivodship (abr.)
1485	1195	1206,349862	-11,3498622	Warszawa
1672	1076	1292,0205	-216,0204998	bialpodlas
1335	1404	1137,630099	266,3699006	bialystock
1496	1287	1211,389311	75,61068852	bielski
1984	1838	1434,957606	403,0423935	Bydg.
2021	1670	1451,908481	218,0915187	chelm
2011	1112	1447,327164	-335,3271638	ciech
1444	1121	1187,56646	-66,56646037	czesto
1334	963	1137,171968	-174,1719677	elblas
1572	1064	1246,207325	-182,2073246	gdan
1991	1433	1438,164529	-5,164528718	gorzo
1629	1290	1272,320834	17,67916551	jelen
1926	1692	1408,385965	283,6140352	kalis
1715	1473	1311,720165	161,2798348	kato
1335	1065	1137,630099	-72,6300994	kiele
1579	1195	1249,414247	-54,41424689	konin
1521	1127	1222,842605	-95,84260528	kosza
1620	1099	1268,197649	-169,1976487	krak
1350	1342	1144,502076	197,4979243	krosn
1733	1288	1319,966537	-31,9665367	legni
1752	1315	1328,67104	-13,67103999	leszcz
1509	1259	1217,345024	41,65497575	lubel
1506	1523	1215,970629	307,029371	lomzy
1830	1331	1364,405317	-33,40531665	lodz
1361	1135	1149,541525	-14,54152495	nowosad
1399	912	1166,950532	-254,9505315	olszt
1741	1683	1323,631591	359,3684093	opol
1678	1195	1294,76929	-99,76929034	ostrol
1329	1533	1134,881309	398,1186911	pilsk
1362	1226	1149,999657	76,00034329	piotrk
1794	1413	1347,912574	65,08742643	plock
1290	1228	1117,014171	110,9858294	pozn
1568	1278	1244,374798	33,62520238	przem
1330	1354	1135,339441	218,6605594	radom
1443	1225	1187,108329	37,89167138	rzesz
1379	1148	1157,787896	-9,78789649	siedle
1335	984	1137,630099	-153,6300994	sierad
1374	899	1155,497238	-256,4972377	skiernie
1835	1234	1366,695975	-132,6959754	slupsk
1730	995	1318,592141	-323,5921414	suwal
1688	1055	1299,350608	-244,3506079	szczec
1472	1146	1200,394149	-54,39414943	tarnbrzes
1699	1074	1304,390057	-230,3900571	tarnow
2054	1392	1467,026829	-75,02682909	torun
1726	1274	1316,759614	-42,75961444	walbrz
1557	1797	1239,335348	557,6646517	wlocl
1751	1188	1328,212908	-140,2129082	wroc
1346	696	1142,669549	-446,6695487	zamoj
1432	1294	1182,068879	111,9311207	zielono
male inf mor	fem inf mor	mor trend va	excess

Legend: male infant mortality per 100000 (x-axis), female infant mortality per 100000 (y-axis) per Polish voivodships, and the trend-line

life expectancy in Poland per region

lodz	69,67
kato	69,72
wlocl	70,07
elblas	70,08
szczec	70,22
jelen	70,32
zielono	70,49
slupsk	70,53
pilsk	70,54
torun	70,59
kosza	70,66
gorzo	70,72
legni	70,73
Bydg.	70,76
pozn	70,76
opol	70,81
walbrz	70,81
gdan	70,87
ciech	70,88
czesto	70,94
piotrk	70,98
plock	71
konin	71,1
wroc	71,13
olszt	71,16
skiernie	71,16
kalis	71,23
radom	71,29
leszcz	71,36
Warszawa	71,43
przem	71,54
sierad	71,57
chelm	71,58
bielski	71,7
suwal	71,7
lubel	71,8
kiele	71,81
krak	71,85
ostrol	71,85
bialpodlas	71,98
siedle	72,08
nowosad	72,12
zamoj	72,12
tarnbrzes	72,17
krosn	72,25
tarnow	72,28
lomzy	72,35
rzesz	72,5
bistock	72,81

The effect of years of European Union membership on developed stable democracies before Union enlargements 1981-95

countries of analysis

Sweden

Israel

Belgium

Denmark

Ireland

Austria

Norway

Australia

Italy

UK

Germany

Netherlands

Switzerland

Canada

Japan

France

Iceland

Luxembourg

Variables:

democratic age within stable world political boundaries by 1980 (Source: Weede; Tausch, 1993a)

central government expenditures 1972 (Source: World Bank, 1990, Fischer Weltalmanach, current issues)

years of Union membership by 1993 (Die Presse, 1. 11. 1993)

economic growth (GNP per cap.) 1980-91 (UNDP, 1994)

human development index (UNDP, 1994)

yearly rate of inflation, 1980-91

European Union enlargement scenario

countries of analysis

CND

France

NOR

USA

Ice

Jap

Swd

Aut

Blg

Aus

Ire

Ger

Gre

Isr

Lux

Port

Variables:

democratic age within stable world political boundaries by 1997 (Source: Weede; Tausch, 1993a. Note the effects of German unifaction)

central government expenditures, mid 1980s (Source:World Resources Institute, UNEP, UNDP, 1992)

years of Union membership by 1997 (Die Presse, 1. 11. 1993)

economic growth (GNP per cap.) 1980-93 (UNDP, 1994)

human development index (UNDP,1997)

yearly rate of inflation, 1993 (UNDP, 1997)

people not expected to survive to age 40, by 1990 (poverty indicator, UNDP, 1997

male unemployment rate, 1993 (UNDP, 1997. For Sweden, the national average of 9.2% unemployment)

female unemployment rate, 1993 (UNDP, 1997. For Sweden, the national average of 9.2% unemployment)

gender empowerment (UNDP, 1997. For the missing values for Iceland, the average of the Scandinavian countries)

Kondratieff cycle data:

For the calculations of Kondratieff cycles, I used J. Goldstein’s classic (1988), plus the following data (estimates) for world (and or OECD) growth 1975 - 1997, based on IMF, IFRI, UN ECE, and Fischer Weltalmanach:

year	growth rate	5-year aver.	9-year aver.
1741	-4,8
1742	10,1
1743	-4,6	2,16
1744	14,3	4
1745	-4,2	2,8	1,81111111
1746	4,4	5,34	3,73333333
1747	4,1	0,26	2,61111111
1748	8,1	3,6	3,12222222
1749	-11,1	2,72	1,94444444
1750	12,5	1,9	2,02222222
1751	0	1,02	1,94444444
1752	0	2,54	0,3
1753	3,7	0,78	-0,15555556
1754	-3,5	-1,36	1,07777778
1755	3,7	-0,56	-0,74444444
1756	-10,7	-1,3	-0,74444444
1757	4	-1,38	-0,21111111
1758	0	-2,12	-0,62222222
1759	-3,9	0,98	-0,66666667
1760	0	0,18	-0,17777778
1761	4,8	-0,6	1,01111111
1762	0	1,8	2,21111111
1763	-3,9	1,8	2,21111111
1764	8,1	3,8	2,28888889
1765	0	3,8	3,02222222
1766	14,8	3,94	2,14444444
1767	0	3,64	2,14444444
1768	-3,2	3,02	3,65555556
1769	6,6	0,06	2,1
1770	-3,1	2	1,41111111
1771	0	1,46	0,13333333
1772	9,7	-1,1	0,5
1773	-5,9	0,18	1,2
1774	-6,2	0,84	0,81111111
1775	3,3	-0,48	0,5
1776	3,3	1,32	0,5
1777	3,1	1,38	-0,92222222
1778	3,1	0,72	1,88888889
1779	-5,9	-0,56	2,27777778
1780	0	2,7	2,22222222
1781	-3,1	1,54	3,95555556
1782	19,4	3,28	4,11111111
1783	-2,7	7,06	4,01111111
1784	2,8	8,58	4,43333333
1785	18,9	5,14	6,61111111
1786	4,5	5,26	6,75555556
1787	2,2	8,62	4,81111111
1788	-2,1	4,48	5,92222222
1789	19,6	3,96	4,1
1790	-1,8	4,98	2,43333333
1791	1,9	2,68	2,56666667
1792	7,3	-0,46	3,11111111
1793	-13,6	1,04	2,42222222
1794	3,9	2,08	1,25555556
1795	5,7	-1,04	3,48888889
1796	7,1	3,5	3,9
1797	-8,3	6,38	2,5
1798	9,1	6,36	4,63333333
1799	18,3	3,88	4,34444444
1800	5,6	6,66	4
1801	-5,3	5,1	3,5
1802	5,6	1,96	4,55555556
1803	1,3	1,36	3,95555556
1804	2,6	2,66	1,38888889
1805	2,6	2,28	1,04444444
1806	1,2	1,06	2,57777778
1807	3,7	1,04	2,57777778
1808	-4,8	2,22	1,72222222
1809	2,5	3,1	1,55555556
1810	8,5	1,08	1,38888889
1811	5,6	2,26	2,48888889
1812	-6,4	1,98	2,07777778
1813	1,1	2,5	2,61111111
1814	1,1	1,38	4,55555556
1815	11,1	2,66	2,68888889
1816	0	6,44	2,06666667
1817	0	4,56	2,77777778
1818	20	2,34	3,66666667
1819	-8,3	2,34	4,46666667
1820	0	4,16	3,23333333
1821	0	1,82	4,08888889
1822	9,1	3,48	3,28888889
1823	8,3	5,02	2,77777778
1824	0	3,58	4,44444444
1825	7,7	4,84	3,75555556
1826	-7,2	4,52	5,23333333
1827	15,4	3,28	4,22222222
1828	6,7	4,4	2,64444444
1829	-6,2	5,84	4,03333333
1830	13,3	1,58	3,8
1831	0	2,74	5,18888889
1832	-5,9	5,1	4,58888889
1833	12,5	3,5	2,83333333
1834	5,6	5,5	4,63333333
1835	5,3	4,86	4,16666667
1836	10	4,36	4,16666667
1837	-9,1	5,06	4,82222222
1838	10	4	2,96666667
1839	9,1	2	2,83333333
1840	0	2,98	3,63333333
1841	0	1,86	3,34444444
1842	-4,2	2,54	4,35555556
1843	4,4	4,02	2,85555556
1844	12,5	4,02	3,03333333
1845	7,4	4,16	3,03333333
1846	0	5,42	3,03333333
1847	-3,5	2,92	4,57777778
1848	10,7	1,44	5,06666667
1849	0	3,38	4,56666667
1850	0	5,84	4,3
1851	9,7	5,3	4,82222222
1852	8,8	6,3	6,22222222
1853	8	7,24	4,8
1854	5	7,12	4,8
1855	4,7	4,94	5,51111111
1856	9,1	3,34	5,1
1857	-2,1	3,62	4,12222222
1858	0	3,88	1,97777778
1859	6,4	2,06	2,36666667
1860	6	0,22	2,5
1861	0	1,92	1,68888889
1862	-11,3	1,82	3,53333333
1863	8,5	0,98	3,35555556
1864	5,9	3,88	3,54444444
1865	1,8	5,82	3,37777778
1866	14,5	5,74	3,06666667
1867	-1,6	5,46	5,3
1868	8,1	4,54	5,55555556
1869	4,5	3,4	4,76666667
1870	-2,8	5,88	4,56666667
1871	8,8	4,02	2,67777778
1872	10,8	3,12	3,27777778
1873	-1,2	3,18	2,51111111
1874	0	2,18	2,27777778
1875	-2,5	0,26	2,84444444
1876	3,8	0,98	2,76666667
1877	1,2	1,44	2,15555556
1878	2,4	3,56	3,06666667
1879	2,3	3,86	3,48888889
1880	8,1	5,02	3,46666667
1881	5,3	5,3	2,93333333
1882	7	4,3	3,43333333
1883	3,8	2,48	4,05555556
1884	-2,7	2,56	4,26666667
1885	-1	2,76	4,33333333
1886	5,7	2,84	4,31111111
1887	8	5,12	3,68888889
1888	4,2	6,34	3,42222222
1889	8,7	5,48	3,35555556
1890	5,1	4,16	3,85555556
1891	1,4	2,66	4,27777778
1892	1,4	1,62	3,66666667
1893	-3,3	2,5	3,73333333
1894	3,5	2,72	3,78888889
1895	9,5	3,4	4,04444444
1896	2,5	5,9	3,94444444
1897	4,8	6,68	4,22222222
1898	9,2	4,88	5,47777778
1899	7,4	5,16	5,33333333
1900	0,5	5,8	4,32222222
1901	3,9	4,4	5,17777778
1902	8	3	5,15555556
1903	2,2	4,94	4,45555556
1904	0,4	5,08	2,72222222
1905	10,2	4,06	3,74444444
1906	4,6	1,98	4,1
1907	2,9	3,84	3,4
1908	-8,2	3,22	4,13333333
1909	9,7	2,64	4,62222222
1910	7,1	3,82	2,5
1911	1,7	6,42	2,33333333
1912	8,8	2,7	2,85555556
1913	4,8	1,9	3,85555556
1914	-8,9	3,08	2,12222222
1915	3,1	1,48	0,41111111
1916	7,6	-0,66	0,86666667
1917	0,8	-0,54	-1,67777778
1918	-5,9	-1,7764E-16	0,28888889
1919	-8,3	-4,34	1,85555556
1920	5,8	0	2,15555556
1921	-14,1	2,22	2,21111111
1922	22,5	5,04	2,48888889
1923	5,2	5,5	3,87777778
1924	5,8	8,98	5,31111111
1925	8,1	5,8	5,47777778
1926	3,3	5,68	5,67777778
1927	6,6	5,98	1,71111111
1928	4,6	1,9	-0,46666667
1929	7,3	-1,4	0,28888889
1930	-12,3	-5,6	0,63333333
1931	-13,2	-4	1,56666667
1932	-14,4	-3,22	2,24444444
1933	12,6	1,58	2,85555556
1934	11,2	6,76	0,88888889
1935	11,7	11,66	4,14444444
1936	12,7	7,06	6,43333333
1937	10,1	8,22	10,1888889
1938	-10,4	7,36	10,6444444
1939	17	8,7	10,9444444
1940	7,4	10,02	9,07777778
1941	19,4	14,88	4,25555556
1942	16,7	10,46	1,47777778
1943	13,9	2,84	4,03333333
1944	-5,1	-4,02	2,97777778
1945	-30,7	-4,84	2,37777778
1946	-14,9	-6,12	1,74444444
1947	12,6	-4,7	0,84444444
1948	7,5	4,18	-0,43333333
1949	2	8,88	0,95555556
1950	13,7	6,84	4,36666667
1951	8,6	6,82	7,34444444
1952	2,4	6,42	6,48888889
1953	7,4	6,06	6,02222222
1954	0	5,32	5,51111111
1955	11,9	5,5	5,24444444
1956	4,9	3,5	5,02222222
1957	3,3	5,76	5,15555556
1958	-2,6	4,7	5,06666667
1959	11,3	4,44	5,63333333
1960	6,6	5,1	5,22222222
1961	3,6	6,64	5,5
1962	6,6	6,02	6,01111111
1963	5,1	6,18	6,46666667
1964	8,2	7,04	5,91111111
1965	7,4	6,02	6
1966	7,9	6,26	5,83333333
1967	1,5	6,1	5,32222222
1968	6,3	5,04	5,62222222
1969	7,4	3,86	5,72222222
1970	2,1	5,12	4,98888889
1971	2	5,68	3,37777778
1972	7,8	4,36	3,74444444
1973	9,1	2,62	3,45555556
1974	0,8	3,18	3,08888889
1975	-6,6	2,36	3,18888889
1976	4,8	1,36	3,01111111
1977	3,7	1,8	2,31111111
1978	4,1	3,2	1,26666667
1979	3	2,54	1,48888889
1980	0,4	1,74	2,76666667
1981	1,5	1,48	2,61111111
1982	-0,3	1,86	2,48888889
1983	2,8	2,46	2,41111111
1984	4,9	2,68	2,55555556
1985	3,4	3,42	2,92222222
1986	2,6	3,72	3,05555556
1987	3,4	3,48	3,28888889
1988	4,3	3,34	3,28888889
1989	3,7	3,18	3,04444444
1990	2,7	3,06	3,12222222
1991	1,8	2,74	3,24444444
1992	2,8	2,82	3,31111111
1993	2,7	3,02	3,32222222
1994	4,1	3,46
1995	3,7	3,78
1996	4
1997	4,4
1998
1999

1975	-6,6 (-0,7)
1976	4,8
1977	3,7
1978	4,1
1979	3
1980	0,4
1981	1,5
1982	-0,3
1983	2,8
1984	4,9
1985	3,4
1986	2,6
1987	3,4
1988	4,3
1989	3,7
1990	2,7
1991	1,8
1992	2,8
1993	2,7
1994	4,1
1995	3,7
1996	4
1997	4,4
1998
1999

These data yield the following graphical results:

Legend: the darker and thicker line are 9-year moving averages, the lighter and thinner lines are 5-year moving averags

TNC Penetration and Transformation Country Development

The transformation success or failure 1989-95

	gdp(1989=100)	privatization	Pol Rights Violations 1991	urbanization	ln (GNP)	ln(GNP)^2	HDI
CS	85	70	2	65	7,9047039	62,484344	0,872
SLOK	84	60	2	57	7,5755847	57,389483	0,872
H	86	60	2	63	8,1167156	65,881073	0,856
PL	97	60	2	63	7,7231201	59,646584	0,855
RU	81	40	5	54	7,0387835	49,544474	0,703
BUL	75	45	2	69	7,0387835	49,544474	0,796
ALB	75	60	4	36	5,8289456	33,976607	0,739
EST	74	65	2	72	8,0326849	64,524026	0,862
LAT	54	60	2	72	7,60589	57,849563	0,857
LIT	42	55	2	70	7,185387	51,629787	0,769
ARM	37	45	5	68	6,4922398	42,149178	0,715
AZE	35	25	5	55	6,5930445	43,468236	0,696
BRU	54	15	4	68	7,9620673	63,394516	0,866
GEO	17	30	6	57	6,3630281	40,488127	0,709
KAZ	44	25	5	58	7,3524411	54,05839	0,798
KYR	43	40	5	39	6,7452363	45,498213	0,717
MOL	42	30	5	49	6,9660242	48,525493	0,755
RUS	49	55	3	75	7,7579062	60,185109	0,849
TAD	40	15	5	32	6,1527327	37,85612	0,643
TUR	63	15	6	45	7,237059	52,375023	0,731
UKR	43	35	3	69	7,7007478	59,301517	0,842
UZB	82	30	6	41	6,8772961	47,297201	0,706
		privatization	Pol Rights	urbanization	ln (GNP)	ln(GNP)^2	HDI

Sources: Osteuropa-Institute Munich, Working Paper 186 (GDP growth, privatization); Stiftung Entwicklung und Frieden (Political Rights Violations, based on Freedom House); UNDP, 1995 (urbanization, Human Development Index); Fischer Weltalmanach (GNP per capita)

Inequality, savings, taxes, and social expenditure. Evidence from Eastern Europe by cross-national comparison

Share of the top 20% dom. savings rate tax revenue % expenditures

in total incomes per GDP per GNP social services

transformation countries:

Lao PDR	40.2%	-	-	-
China	43.9%	44%	2.6%	3.3%
Moldova	41.5%	0%	-	-
Kazakstan	40.4%	20%	-	-
Bulgaria	39.3%	21%	29.3%	36.3%
Romania	34.8%	25%	26.5%	46.9%
Lithuania	42.1%	11%	18.3%	-
Ukraine	35.4%	-	-	-
Belarus	32.9%	27%	30.8%	57.2%
Slovak R	31.4%	23%	-	-
Latvia	36.7%	25%	25.3%	52.8%
Poland	36.6%	17%	37.9%	-
Russia	53.8%	29%	19.1%	54.1%
Estonia	46.3%	28%	29.1%	56.4%
Czech R.	37.4%	20%	38.0%	60.6%
Hungary	36.6%	15%	-	-
Slovenia	37.9%	25%	-	-

by comparison:

Austria	-	26%	33.7%	70.1%
Finland	37.6%	20%	29.6%	59.3%
Netherlands	36.9%	24%	44.7%	69.3%
Sweden	36.9%	17%	31.7%	56.8%
Norway	36.7%	26%	37.0%	55.6%
Denmark	38.6%	21%	33.3%	53.5%
Japan	37.5%	32%	17.8%	59.2%

Indonesia	40.7%	30%	16.3%	14.4%
Thailand	52.7%	35%	17.0%	35.4%
Hong Kong	47.0%	33%	-	-
Singapore	48.9%	51%	17.1%	35.9%

Source: our compilations from World Bank, 1996, WDR

Gini-Index of income inequality in the formerly socialist or quasi-socialist countries

Country	GINI inequality	pol rights violations	civil rights violations	GNP per capita	growth 85-94
Tanzania	0,381	6	5	140	0,8
Vietnam	0,357	7	7	200
G-Bissau	0,562	6	5	240	2,2
Lao PDR	0,304	7	6	320
Nicaragua	0,503	4	5	340	-6,1
China	0,376	7	7	530	7,8
Moldova	0,344	5	5	870
Kazakstan	0,327	6	4	1160	-6,5
Bulgaria	0,308	2	2	1250	-2,7
Romania	0,255	4	4	1270	-4,5
Lithuania	0,336	1	3	1350	-8
Algeria	0,387	7	6	1650	-2,5
Ukraine	0,257	4	4	1910	-8
Belarus	0,216	5	4	2160	-1,9
Slovak R	0,195	3	4	2250	-3
Latvia	0,27	3	3	2320	-6
Poland	0,272	2	2	2410	0,8
Russia	0,496	3	4	2650	-4,1
Estonia	0,395	3	2	2820	-6,1
Turkmenistan	0,358	7	7
Czech R	0,266	1	2	3200	-2,1
Hungary	0,27	1	2	3840	-1,2
Slovenia	0,282	1	2	7040

Country	GINI inequality	pol rights violations	civil rights violations	GNP per capita	growth 85-94

Country	GINI inequality	pol rights violations	civil rights violations	FCAPPen
Tanzania	0,381	6	5	1,3
Vietnam	0,357	7	7	1,9
G-Bissau	0,562	6	5	6
Lao PDR	0,304	7	6	12,1
Nicaragua	0,503	4	5	10,8
China	0,376	7	7	17,9
Kazakstan	0,327	6	4	3
Bulgaria	0,308	2	2	0,6
Romania	0,255	4	4	1,8
Lithuania	0,336	1	3	1,7
Algeria	0,387	7	6	2,9
Slovak R	0,195	3	4	3,2
Latvia	0,27	3	3	8,5
Poland	0,272	2	2	5,3
Estonia	0,395	3	2	26,5
Czech R	0,266	1	2	9,9
Hungary	0,27	1	2	15,6

Country	GINI inequality	pol rights violations	civil rights violations	GNP per capita	FCAPPen	Unemployment


Bulgaria	0,308	2	2	1250	0,6	10,4
Romania	0,255	4	4	1270	1,8	7,1
Lithuania	0,336	1	3	1350	1,7	7
Moldova	0,344	5	5	870	1,5	1,6
Ukraine	0,257	4	4	1910	0,7	1
Belarus	0,216	5	4	2160	0,2	3,7
Slovak R	0,195	3	4	2250	3,2	12,1
Latvia	0,27	3	3	2320	8,5	7
Poland	0,272	2	2	2410	5,3	14,3
Russia	0,496	3	4	2650	0,9	3,6
Estonia	0,395	3	2	2820	26,5	2,2
Slovenia	0,282	1	2	7040	2,2	13,2
Czech R	0,266	1	2	3200	9,9	2,8
Hungary	0,27	1	2	3840	15,6	10,6
Slovenia	0,282	1	2	7040	2,2	13,2

Source: our own compilations from UNDP, 1996; World Bank, WDR, 1996; UNCTAD, 1996; Stiftung (1996, for the Freedom House data series); Polish Central Statistical Office, Poland Quarterly Statistics, 4, 2, 1996: 52 (unemployment figures)

economic growth =

Gini inequality political repr. civil rights ln (GNP)(ln(GNP))^2 constant

violations

10,91358546	-162,8188826			-0,722897795		0,116576987		-11,0941545		607,4708743
2,711016139	39,90219401			0,98220757		0,764921232		10,11245772		148,4162944
0,6951136
4,103838325	9

4,025643853		-4,080449376		-0,735992897		0,152403911		-1,097077962		t-test
Gini inequality			political repr.		civil rights		ln (GNP)		(ln(GNP))^2		constant
					violations

GINI income inequality =

pol rights violations	civil rights violations	FCAPPen	lnGNPpc	lnGNP^2	constant
-0,018992718	0,176971676	0,004611249	-0,020469912	0,006726173	0,061751233
0,025122747	0,324494352	0,002916141	0,028052902	0,020223575	1,016901378
0,504766872
2,24235225	11

-0,755996872	0,545376754	1,581284635	-0,729689648	0,332590687
pol rights violations	civil rights violations	FCAPPen	lnGNPpc	lnGNP^2

unemployment rate =

GINI inequality	pol rights violations	civil rights violations	GNP per capita	FCAPPen	constant
-0,218971053	0,000392913	-1,528791364	-0,907559915	-17,56078807	19,53812103
0,183471851	0,000686046	2,166180602	1,418759587	14,50565314	6,935047266
0,56989396
2,385014466	9

-1,193485827	0,572720543	-0,705754341	-0,639685485	-1,210616847	T-test
GINI inequality	pol rights violations	civil rights violations	GNP per capita	FCAPPen

Legend: as in all EXCEL 5.0 outprints in this work, first row: unstandardized regression coefficients, second row: standard errors, last row: t-Test. The values immediately below the standard errors are R^{^2} (third row, left side entry), F, and degrees of freedom (fourth row).

Source: our own calculations from the above Tables with EXCEL 5.0 multiple regression routine.

foreign aid, aggregate resource flows per GNP and economic growth in the transformation countries

	Aid 94	Growth 95	Resource flow
Albania	7,8	6	9,1
Bulgaria	1,6	3	0,1
Croatia		2	0,3
Czech R.	0,4	5	7,8
Hungary	0,5	2	7,3
Macedonia		-4	-2,4
Poland	2	7	3,8
Romania	0,5	7	4,3
Slovak R	0,6	7	6,6
Slovenia		5	2,4
Armenia	6,9	7	7
Azerbaijan	4	-17	3,7
Belarus	0,6	-12	1,6
Estonia	0,9	4	5,5
Georgia	8,4	-5	9
Kazakstan	0,3	-9	4,4
Kyrgyz R	5,8	-6	5,9
Latvia	0,9	1	5,2
Lithuania	1,4	3	1,8
Moldova	1,4	2	5,1
Russia	0,5	-4	0,8
Tajikistan	3,2	-12	11,5
Turkmenistan	0,1	-5	1
Ukraine	0,4	-12	0,9
Uzbekistan	0,1	-2	0,2
China	0,6	10,2	9,6
Mongolia	22,5	6,3	14,4
Vietnam	5,2	9,5	6,5

Legend: our own compilations from World Bank, WDR, 1996

The external conditions of the transformation and the World Bank’s liberalization index:

net flows per GNP	development assistance per GNP	present value of external debt per GNP	liberalization Index
7,8	0,4	28	9,3	CS
6,6	0,6	30	8,5	SLOK
7,3	0,5	66	9	H
3,8	2	37	9	PL
4,3	0,5	17	7,1	RU

0,1	1,6	100	6	BUL
9,1	7,8	45	7,5	ALB
5,5	0,9	4	9,3	EST
5,2	0,9	6	8,2	LAT
1,8	1,4	7	8,5	LIT
7	6,9	8	6	ARM
3,7	4	3	4,5	AZE
1,6	0,6	5	4,8	BRU
9	8,4	56	6	GEO
4,4	0,3	14	5,9	KAZ
5,9	5,8	13	8,3	KYR
5,1	1,4	12	6,8	MOL
0,8	0,5	23	6,9	RUS
11,5	3,2	25	3,8	TAD
1	0,1	1	2,1	TUR
0,9	0,4	6	5,9	UKR
0,2	0,1	5	5,3	UZB
NET FLOWS	DEV ASS	NET DEBT	Liberalization

Source: our own compilations from World Bank, WDR, 1996

economic recovery in Eastern Europe and the former USSR:

privatization	Pol Rights Violations	ln (GNP)	ln(GNP)^2	HDI	NET FLOWS	DEV ASS	Liberalization	Constant
0,536737	-6,757594	-0,988263	-4,253716	18,634372	-274,6279	4,6616276	0,932771	1024,9646
5,2836872	2,9991756	1,9402744	167,95219	13,84864	197,52304	5,844472	0,6182559	727,345
0,5709663	18,06576
2,1625809	13
5646,4411	4242,8317
privatization	Pol Rights Violations	ln (GNP)	ln(GNP)^2	HDI	NET FLOWS	DEV ASS	Liberalization
0,1015838	-2,253151	-0,509342	-0,025327	1,3455741	-1,390359	0,7976131	1,5087134

Source: our calculations from the above Tables on the basis of the EXCEL 5.0 multiple regression program

EU-eastward expansion - a synopsis of the conditions, prevailing in the European periphery:

	current account balance per GNP 1994	CO2 emissions in millions of tons 1994	government surplus or deficit per GNP 1994	political repression 1993	civil rights violations 1993
Greece	-6,3	73,9	-15,6	1	3
Portugal	-1,9	47,2	-2,2	1	1
Spain	-1,5	223,2	-4,8	1	2
Ireland	2,3	25,1	-2,3	1	2
Italy	2,5	407,7	-10,6	1	3
Bulgaria	1,9	54,4	-4,5	2	2
Romania	-1	122,1	-2,5	4	4
Lithuania		22		1	3
Slovak R	5,8	37		3	4
Latvia		14,8	-4,4	3	3
Poland	-3,1	341,9	-2,4	2	2
Croatia	0	16,2	1,7	4	4
Estonia	-1,7	20,9	1,2	3	2
Czech R	0	135,6	0,9	1	2
Hungary	-9,4	59,9		1	2
Slovenia	3,9	5,5		1	2

Sources: (1), (2), (3) World Bank, WDR, 1996; (4) and (5) Stiftung Entwicklung und Frieden, 1996, based exclusively on Freedom House

the weighted averages of the economic and political indicators of European periphery countries

Legend: columns, left-hand scale: average of the ‘double deficits’ in the current account and in the budget; right-hand scale, dotted line: average of political and civil rights violations. Best value: - 1; worst value: - 7.

Effects of the European Union before and after the enlargements of 1981, 1986, 1995

	age dem 80	state sector	y Union (93)	growth 80 - 91	HDI	inflation 80-91
sw	63	28	0	1,7	0,928	7,4
is	32	44	0	1,7	0,9	89
us	76	19	0	1,7	0,925	4,2
sf	63	24	0	2,5	0,911	6,6
bl	35	39	35	2	0,916	4,2
dk	35	33	20	2,2	0,912	5,2
ir	57	33	20	3,3	0,892	5,8
at	25	30	0	2,1	0,917	3,6
nz	101	31	0	0,7	0,907	10,3
no	35	35	0	2,3	0,928	5,2
as	88	20	0	1,6	0,926	7
it	35	30	35	2,2	0,891	9,5
uk	62	32	20	2,6	0,919	5,8
ge	31	24	35	2,2	0,918	2,8
nl	35	41	35	1,6	0,923	1,8
ch	108	13	0	1,6	0,931	3,8
cn	82	20	0	2	0,932	4,3
jp	28	13	0	3,6	0,929	1,5
fr	35	32	35	1,8	0,927	5,7
ic	32	44	0	1,7	0,914	30
lux	35	41,3	35	3,5	0,908	4,2
	age dem 80	state sector	y Union (93)	growth	HDI	inflation 80-91

Effects of the European Union after enlargements

EU-years

age democr

state sector

HDI

0	99	22,2	0,96	CND
39	52	43,7	0,946	France
0	52	43,4	0,943	NOR
0	93	23,5	0,942	USA
0	49	27,5	0,942	Ice
39	52	53,9	0,94	NL
0	45	16,3	0,94	Jap
2	80	30	0,94	SF
0	118	44,7	0,937	NZ
2	80	41,3	0,936	Swd
11	20	33,6	0,934	Sp
2	42	39,1	0,932	Aut
39	52	50,1	0,932	Blg
0	105	27,5	0,931	Aus
24	79	35,6	0,931	UK
0	125	21	0,93	CH
24	74	52,4	0,929	Ire
24	52	38,3	0,927	DK
39	7	30,4	0,924	Ger
16	23	40,1	0,923	Gre
39	52	46,8	0,921	It
0	49	48	0,913	Isr
39	52	41,3	0,899	Lux
11	22	41,9	0,89	Port
EU-years	age democr	state sector	HDI

	growth	UNDP surv	growth -91	male unemploy	gender power
CND	1,4	3,1	2	11,8	0,7
France	1,6	4	1,8	10	0,452
NOR	2,2	2,7	2,3	6,6	0,795
USA	1,7	4	1,7	7,1	0,671
Ice	1,2	2,6	1,8	3,6	0,757
NL	1,7	2,5	1,6	6	0,66
Jap	3,4	2,2	3,6	2,4	0,465
SF	1,5	3,1	2,5	19,5	0,719
NZ	0,7	4,3	0,7	10	0,718
Swd	1,3	2,7	1,7	9,2	0,784
Sp	2,7	3	2,8	9,9	0,542
Aut	2	3,7	2,1	6,7	0,667
Blg	1,9	3,5	2	9,7	0,591
Aus	1,6	3,5	1,6	11,5	0,659
UK	2,3	2,6	2,6	12,4	0,543
CH	1,1	3,4	1,6	4,4	0,642
Ire	3,6	2,9	3,3	18,8	0,521
DK	2	3,4	2,2	11,3	0,728
Ger	2,1	3	2,2	8	0,661
Gre	0,9	3,8	1,1	6,4	0,391
It	2,1	3	2,2	8,1	0,573
Isr	2	2,8	1,7	8,5	0,475
Lux	2,8	3,8	3,5	1,5	0,631
Port	3,3	4,7	3,1	4,6	0,556
	growth	UNDP surv	growth -91	male unemploy	gender power

	growth	UNDP surv	growth -91	female unpl.r	gender power	inflation 93
CND	1,4	3,1	2	10,6	0,7	1,1
France	1,6	4	1,8	13,7	0,452	2,2
NOR	2,2	2,7	2,3	5,2	0,795	1
USA	1,7	4	1,7	6,5	0,671	2
Ice	1,2	2,6	1,8	5,4	0,757	2,9
NL	1,7	2,5	1,6	7,3	0,66	1,6
Jap	3,4	2,2	3,6	2,6	0,465	0,8
SF	1,5	3,1	2,5	15,7	0,719	2,3
NZ	0,7	4,3	0,7	8,9	0,718	0,9
Swd	1,3	2,7	1,7	9,2	0,784	2,6
Sp	2,7	3	2,8	23,8	0,542	4,4
Aut	2	3,7	2,1	6,9	0,667	3,6
Blg	1,9	3,5	2	17,4	0,591	4,4
Aus	1,6	3,5	1,6	10,1	0,659	1,1
UK	2,3	2,6	2,6	7,5	0,543	3,4
CH	1,1	3,4	1,6	4,7	0,642	2,1
Ire	3,6	2,9	3,3	19,5	0,521	3,6
DK	2	3,4	2,2	13,7	0,728	1,2
Ger	2,1	3	2,2	8,4	0,661	3,9
Gre	0,9	3,8	1,1	15,2	0,391	12,6
It	2,1	3	2,2	17,3	0,573	4,4
Isr	2	2,8	1,7	12,1	0,475	11
Lux	2,8	3,8	3,5	1,9	0,631	6,2
Port	3,3	4,7	3,1	6,5	0,556	7,4
	growth	UNDP surv	growth -91	female unpl.r	gender power	inflation 93

Our data and trade block compositions were:

EU-12	Human Development Index
	1980	1992	1994
France	0,895	0,927	0,946
NL	0,888	0,923	0,94
SP	0,851	0,888	0,934
Blg	0,873	0,916	0,932
UK	0,892	0,919	0,931
Ire	0,862	0,892	0,929
DK	0,888	0,912	0,927
Ger	0,881	0,918	0,924
Gre	0,839	0,874	0,923
Ita	0,857	0,891	0,921
Lux	0,869	0,908	0,899
Port	0,736	0,838	0,89
standard dev.	0,041240066	0,024517001	0,015200512
average HDI	0,860916667	0,9005	0,924666667

Asean	Human Development Index
	1980	1992	1994
Indonesia	0,418	0,586	0,668
Malaysia	0,687	0,794	0,832
Philippines	0,557	0,621	0,672
Singapore	0,78	0,836	0,9
Thailand	0,551	0,798	0,833
Brunei
Vietnam
standard dev.	0,124364947	0,102496829	0,09393189
average HDI	0,5986	0,727	0,781

EFTA	Human Development Index
	1980	1992	1994
Iceland	0,89	0,914	0,942
Norway	0,901	0,928	0,943
Switzerland	0,897	0,931	0,93
Austria	0,88	0,917	0,932
Sweden	0,899	0,928	0,936
standard deviation	0,007657676	0,006770524	0,0052
average HDI	0,8934	0,9236	0,9366

NAFTA	Human Development Index
	1980	1992	1994
CND	0,911	0,932	0,96
USA	0,905	0,925	0,942
Mexico	0,758	0,804	0,853
standard deviation	0,070753092	0,058759396	0,046778438
average HDI	0,858	0,887	0,918333333

EU-Assoc.	Human Development Index
	1980	1992	1994
Bulgaria
Estonia
Israel	0,862	0,9	0,913
Lithuania
Latvia
Malta	0,802	0,843	0,887
Morocco	0,383	0,549	0,566
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Turkey	0,549	0,739	0,772
Tunesia	0,499	0,69	0,748
Hungary
Cyprus	0,844	0,873	0,907
standard deviation	0,186958774	0,121742442	0,122490022
average HDI	0,6565	0,765666667	0,798833333

APEC	Human Development Index
	1980	1992	1994
Indonesia	0,418	0,586	0,668
Malaysia	0,687	0,794	0,832
Philippines	0,557	0,621	0,672
Singapore	0,78	0,836	0,9
Thailand	0,551	0,798	0,833
Australia	0,89	0,926	0,931
Chile	0,753	0,848	0,891
Japan	0,906	0,929	0,94
CND	0,911	0,932	0,96
USA	0,905	0,925	0,942
Mexico	0,758	0,804	0,853
S-Korea	0,666	0,859	0,89
New Zealand	0,877	0,907	0,937
Papua-NG	0,348	0,408	0,525
China	0,475	0,644	0,626
Hong-Kong	0,83	0,875	0,914
standard deviation	0,18081897	0,146817276	0,129612343
average HDI	0,707	0,79325	0,832125

Values for other member countries were missing (as well). Our analysis makes the assumption of a ‘pipeline effect’, i.e. that integration is a long-term process, already affecting countries before actual joining or founding the trade block takes place, viz. Spain before full membership of the EU, NAFTA before it came into being etc.

Data provided by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Labor (1997, Bericht ueber die soziale Lage) show the following connection between social security expenditures and poverty in the countries of the European Union:

Legend: social expenditures per GDP, 1994; percent of the total population endangered by poverty, 1993. Compiled by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Labor.

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Subject Index

absolute GNP

absolute income growth

ACDA (Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, United States Department of State

adjustment

adult literacy rate

age of democracy

aggregate net transfers

agricultural share in GDP

aid dependency

Albania

Algeria

alphabetization rate

ancient world systems

Angola

Antigua and Barbuda

Argentina

Armenia

ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)

asylum

Australia

Austria

average population growth

Azerbaijan

Bahamas

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Barbados

BBW(R) (Non - Partisan Bloc for Reform, Polish political party, formed by President Lech Walesa)

Belarus

Belgium

Belize

Benin

Bhutan

big estates (> 25 ha) per total land

big landholding

Bolivia

Bosnia

Botswana

Brazil

Brunei Darussalam

budget surplus/deficit

Bulgaria

Burkina Faso

Burundi

C.S.O. (Central Statistical Office of the Polish Republic)

Cambodia

Cameroon

Canada

capability poverty measure

Cape Verde

Catholic Church

Catholicism (as a social tradition)

CEFTA (Central European Free Trade Area (as of 1.9.1995, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Poland, Hungary)

center

Central Africa

Central African Republic

Chad

child mortality rate

Chile

China

CIS (Community of Independent States in the ex - USSR)

CO2

Cold War

Colombia

Communist legacy

Comoros

Confucianism

Congo

corporatism

Costa Rica

Cote dIvoire

country risk

Croatia

Cuba

currency reserves

current account balance

Cyprus

Czech Republic

defeudalization

deforestation

deforestation rate

Denmark

dependency theory

deregulation

destabilization index

Deutschmark

distribution coalition

Djibouti

Dollar

Dominica

Dominican Republic

double deficits

DYN HD (growth of life expectancy over time)

East Asia

East Rome

East-West gap

EC (European Community, now: EU)

economic growth

ECU (European Currency Unit)

Ecuador

Egypt

El Salvador

employment

ENCONS (energy consumption per capita)

end of Cold War

end of history

enlargement of participation

EO/AA (equal opportunity and affirmative action laws in the United States of America)

Equatorial Guinea

Eritrea

Estonia

Ethiopia

ethno - linguistic fractionalization

ethno - linguistic fractionalization index

ethno - political conflict (EP)

EU (European Union, per 1.1.1995 15 member states)

EU enlargement

EU membership years

EURATOM (Atom Energy Agency of the European Union)

EURO (European Single Currency)

European Monetary Union

EXCEL (computer software)

export processing zones

external migration

F (productivities)

failure of demographic transition

FAILUREDEM (failure of demographic transition, index constructed from time series regressions about fertility rates over time)

female excess infant mortality rates

feminism

fertility rate

Fiji

financial capitalism

Finland

five pillars of inequality (five monopolies, S. Amin)

FLACSO (Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Santiago)

fordism

foreign debt

forest area per total land area

France

freedom of market and enterprise

G - 24

Gabon

Gambia

GDP

GEI (Gender Empowerment Index, see also gender issues)

gender - related development index

gender discrimination

gender empowerment

gender issues

General Motors

Georgia

German Wars, 1914 - 1945

Germany

Ghana

ghettos

global economy

global warming

globalization

GNP (Gross National Product)

GNP per capita growth

government

government consumption per GDP

government expenditures per GNP

Greece

greenhouse effect

greenhouse index

Grenada

Guatemala

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Guyana

Haiti

HDI (Human Development Index)

HDR (Human Development Report published each year by the UNDP)

hegemonic cycle

historical fertility rate

Honduras

Hong Kong

human capital formation

human development index (HDI)

Hungary

Huntington Index

IBM

Iceland

ILO

IMF

income concentration

income distribution

increase in life expectancy

India

Indian Ocean rim

Indonesia

industrial employment

industrial waste

inflation

ins (members of European monetary Union)

Iran, Islamic Republic of

Iraq

Ireland

Islam as a world religion

Islamic fundamentalism

Islamic traditions (traditions in Islamic countries in a sociological sense)

Israel

IST (political instability according to S. P. Huntington)

Italy

Jamaica

Japan

Jordan

Juche idea (North Korean totalitarian ideology)

Judaism

Jugar cycles

Kazakstan

Kenya

Keynesianism

Kitchin cycles

Kohl Helmut

Kondratieff cycles

Korea, Democratic People’s Republic of

Korea, Republic of

KPN (Confederation for an Independent Poland)

Kuwait

Kuznets curve

Kuznets cycles

Kyrgyztan

labor force in agriculture

labor force in industry (see: labor force agriculture)

labor force participation ratio

Lao People’s Democratic Republic

Latin America

Latin Americanization

Latvia

LDCs (less developed countries)

Lebanon

Lesotho

liberalism

liberation theology

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

life expectancy

life expectancy increases over time

life-styles

Lithuania

Long 16^th Century

Long 20^th Century

long cycles

Luxembourg

M (Imports)

Maastricht

Macedonia, FYR

Madagascar

main telephone lines

Malawi

Malaysia

Maldives

Mali

malnourishment

Malta

market economy without adjective nouns

market size

mass murder, politically motivated, in our Century

maternal mortality rate

Matthew’s effect

Mauritania

Mauritius

mean years of schooling

Mexico

Mezzogiorno (European South)

migration

migration dependency

migration pressure

military expenditures

military expenditures per GDP

military personnel ratio

military transfers

mixed enterprises

MNC (Multinational Corporations)

MNC penetration

MNC penetration index

mobility in the international system

modernization theory

Moldova, Republic of

money laundering

Mongolia

Morocco

Mozambique

Myanmar

NAFTA (North American Free Trade Area)

Namibia

Napoleonic Wars

narco-states

national disintegration

nationalism

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)

natural logarithm of per capita income

natural logarithm of per capita income, squared

neo-dependency theory

Nepal

Netherlands

new international division of labor

New Zealand

Nicaragua

Niger

Nigeria

North-South gap

Norway

NOX

OECD

Oman

organized crime

Orthodoxy (Christian Orthodoxy)

outs (non-members of European monetary Union)

Pacific rim

Pakistan

Panama

Papua New Guinea

Paraguay

percent employment in agriculture

percent employment in foreign capital enterprises per total employment

percent employment in mixed enterprises per total employment

Perestroika

periphery

Peru

Philippines

Poland

Polish Catholic traditions

Polish excess mortality patterns

Polish political cleavages

Polish post-Communism

Polish regional discrepancies

political instability

political instability theories

population

population density

population density^0.50

population dynamics

population growth rates

Portugal

private land per total land

private landholding

private peasants

privatization

profits

protectionism

Protestantism as a social, historic behavior pattern

PSL (Polish Peasant Party)

public investment

purchasing power parity

Qatar

raw materials

real appreciation of the national currency

real GDP per capita

refugees

regulation

religious practice

rent-seeking

REPRESS (Index of civil rights violations, in excess of political repression (index construction by linear regression analysis)

repressiveness of the security apparatus

RGP (linear standard regression procedure of the EXCEL 4.0 program)

RKP (non - linear standard regression procedure of the EXCEL 4.0 program)

Romania

Russia (as a historic entity until 1917)

Russian Federation

Russian-German alliances

Russian-German conflict

Rwanda

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Saint Lucia

Saint Vincent

Samoa (Western)

Sao Tomé and Principe

Saudi Arabia

savings

semi-finished products

semi-periphery

Senegal

Serbia

Seychelles

share of outward FDI stock in gross domestic product in 1985

share of women in the membership of national legislature

Sierra Leone

Singapore

SLD (electoral platform of the Polish left, dominated by the Polish Post - Communist Party SdRP)

Slovakia

Slovenia

SM (social mobilization according to S. P. Huntington)

small states

SO2

social reform as a strategy of ascent

social reform theories

social security

social security benefits expenditure as % of GDP

Societas Iesu, S. J. (Jesuits Fathers)

soft-body component (prostitution)

Solomon Islands

South Africa

Spain

speculation

Sri Lanka

St. Matthew

Stalin Joseph

Starnberg group

state sector size

Sterling

structural disarticulation

structural heterogeneity

Sudan

Suriname

Swaziland

Sweden

Switzerland

Syrian Arab Republic

Taiwan

Tajikistan

Tanzania, United Republic of

terms of trade

Thailand

Thirty Years War

TNC (Transnational Corporations)

Togo

total area

total fertility rate

totalitarianism

tourism

trade dependency

traditions of male prejudice

transfers per capita

transnational integration

Trinidad and Tobago

Tunesia

Turkey

Turkmenistan

Uganda

Ukraine

UN ECE

UN membership years

UN(O)

undervalued currencies

UNDP

unemployment

unequal exchange

UNICEF

union density

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom

UP (Polish Political Party: Labor Union)

urban bias

urbanization

Uruguay

USA

USSR

UW (Polish Political Party: Freedom Union)

Uzbekistan

Vanuatu

Venezuela

Viet Nam

violation of civil rights

violation of political rights

voting

vulnerability of a nation in terms of the expansion of the new international division of labor

wage level

war years

WDR (World Development Report, document, published each year by the World Bank)

weakening of the social and political center

welfare borders

welfare gaps

welfare state

West Rome

world political threats

world systems theory

X (exports)

years of Communist rule

years of membership in the United Nations

Yemen

Yen

Zaire

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Author's Index

Achen Ch. H.

Adamczyk F.

Addo H.

Afheldt H.

Ahluwalia M. S.

Akerman J.

Almond G.

Althaler A.

Amankwaa A. A.

Amin S.

Ammon G.

Amnesty International

Amsden A. H.

Andreson A.

Angresano J.

Apter D.

Ardelt R.

Arnold E.

Arrighi G.

Aslund, A.

Austrian Federal Ministry for Foreign Affairs

Austrian Federal Ministry of Labour, Health and Social Affairs

Autorenkollektiv

Axtmann R.

Bablewski Z.

Balibar E.

Ballmer-Cao Th. H.

Bandt J. de

Bandyopadhyay S.

Bank Austria

Baran P. A.

Barnes S. H.

Bauboeck R.

Bayer K.

BBC World Service

Beaud M.

Beck N.

Becker G.

Beckerman W.

Behan T.

Beirat fuer Gesellschaftspolitische Alternativen (BEIGEWUM, Vienna)

Bello R.

Bello W.

Benard Ch.

Bergesen A.

Bernal - Restrepo S. Societas Iesu

Bernhard M.

Berry A.

Berry B. J. L.

Berry W. D.

Berryman Ph.

Betz J.

Bhaduri A.

Bhagwati J.N.

Birdsall N.

Blaas W.

Blank S.

Boehring W. R.

Boff C.

Boff L.

Boli J.

Bollen K. A.

Bornschier V.

Boswell T.

Botz G.

Boyer M.

Brackley D. Societas Iesu

Bradshaw Y.

Brahmbhatt M.

Brenner R.

Breuss F.

Brill H.

Brown J. F.

Brown L. R.

Bruene St.

Bruno M.

Buckley K. D.

Bulletin of Electoral Statistics and Public Opinion Research Data, Poland (UCLA Berkeley)

Bullock B.

Bundesministerium fuer Arbeit, Gesundheit und Soziales, Vienna

Bundesministerium fuer Landesverteidigung, Landesverteidigungsakademie, Vienna

Burant St. R.

Bush K.

Business Central Europe

Carballo M.

Cardoso F. H.

Central Statistical Office of the Polish Republic

Chaloupek G.

Chase - Dunn Ch. K

Choucri N.

Clad J. C.

Clark R.

Clarke D. L.

Clauss G.

Cline M.

Clinton B.

Cohen R.

Cohn - Bendit D.

Commission of the European Communities

Cordova A.

Cornia G. A.

Crenshaw E. M.

Crough G. J.

Dadush U.

Daly M.

Datta A.

David A.

Deacon B.

Delacroix J.

Deshingkar G.

Deutsch K. W.

Dialog (online, Knight-Ridder Information Systems)

Die Presse, Vienna (electronic)

Dietz R.

Dixon W. J.

Doran Ch. F.

Dubiel I.

Dunn J. F.

Eberhard Th.

Economist

Ehrlich S.

Eklund K.

El Pais Electronico

Ellacuria I. Societas Jesu

Elsenhans H.

Engelbrekt K.

Ernst A.

Ernst D.

Esping - Andersen G.

Evans P. B.

Eyal P. B.

Farmer P.

Fassmann H.

Fedderke J.

Feder E.

Feldman S.

Fiala R.

Fink G.

Firebaugh, G.

Fix M.

Flechsig St.

Forrester J. W.

Fouad M.

Foxley A.

Foye St.

Frank A. G.

Frank-Fuentes M.

Friberg M.

Froebel F.

Fuest C.

Fukuyama F.

G-24

Gabrisch H.

Gaechter A.

Galganek A.

Galtung J.

Gardawski J.

Gartner R.

Gerlich P.

Gibellini R.

Gills B.

Gilpin R.

Goble P.

Goldfrank W. L.

Goldstein J. S.

Golinowska St.

Gonzales Casanova P.

Gore A.

Gourevitch P.A.

Gray C. S.

Griffin K.

Grosser I.

Gurley J.

Gurr T. R.

Gutierrez G.

Haas E. B.

Hadden K.

Hallett A. J. H.

Handelman St.

Hausner J.

Heinrichs J.

Heintz P.

Hertoghe A.

Hesoun J.

Hettne B.

Hickmann Th.

Hilferding R.

Hillenbrand O.

Hillgenberg H.

Hinnells J.

Hintjens H. M.

Hirschman A. O.

Hoell O.

Hoensch J. K.

Hofbauer H.

Hohenwarter A.

Holst J. J.

Holtbruecke D.

Holy Bible

Hopkins T. K.

Huang J.

Huebner K.

Huntington S. P.

Inglehart R.

Inoguchi T.

Inotai A.

Institute of Labour and Social Studies (Warsaw)

International Labour Office, Geneva

Jackman R. W.

Janacek K.

Janos A. C.

Janowska Z.

Jenkins R.

Jodice D. H.

John Paul II, Pope

Juchler J.

Kabashima T.

Kaldor M.

Kaldor N.

Kalecki M.

Karatnycky A.

Kasarda J. D.

Katzenstein P. J.

Kawato A.

Kay C.

Keman H.

Kennedy P.

Kent G.

Kent N. J.

Keynes J. M.

Khoury A. Th.

Kidron M.

Kiljunen K.

Kirkpatrick J.

Klaus V.

Kleinknecht A.

Klitgaard R.

Knight J.

Komlosy A.

Kondratieff N. D.

Korbonski A.

Korcelli P.

Koronkiewicz P.

Korpi W.

Kostello E.

Kothari R.

Koydl W.

Kreiksy P.

Kreisky B.

Kreye O.

Kriz J.

Krzysztofiak M.

Kueng H.

Kunitz St. J.

Kurth J. R.

Kurz R.

Kuznets S.

L’Express

Labrousse A.

Landesmann M.

Lapid Y.

Laski K.

Launer E.

Le Monde

Leggett J.

Lengyel P.

Lepingwell J. W. R.

Lernoux P.

Levy J. S.

Levy P. E.

Lewis - Beck M. S.

Lewis Sir W. A.

Liemt G. van

Linder S. B.

Linnemann H.

Lipset S. M.

Lipton M.

Lisiecki M.

Loeschnak F.

London B.

Luif P.

Luza R.

Lynch A.

Maerz E.

Magenheimer H.

Malcolm N.

Mandel E.

Mariateguí J. C.

Marin B.

Maritain J.

Marshall D. D.

Martin H. P.

Martin K.

Martin P.

Marx K.

Matthies V.

Mc Sweeny B.

Meier G. M.

Michelsen G.

Michna W.

Microsoft Excel

Mierzewski P.

Mihalka M.

Millard F.

Mittelman J.

Mizgala J. J.

Moaddel M.

Modelski G.

Monatsberichte des Oesterreichischen Instituts fuer Wirtschaftsforschung

Moon B. E.

Morawetz R.

Morell R.

Mueller G. P.

Muenz R.

Mulford Ch. L.

Muller E. N.

Munoz O.

Myrdal G.

Nelson D. N.

Neue Zuercher Zeitung (current issues).

Nikolaou K.

Nikolinakos M.

Nohlen D.

Nollert M.

Nolte H. H.

Nowotny I.

Nowotny Th.

Nuscheler F.

O’Leary Ch. J.

Odom W.

Oesterreichischer Arbeiterkammertag

Olbrich E.

Olson M.

Opitz P. J.

Opp K. D.

Orenstein M.

Owsiak St.

Papademetriou D. G.

Passel J. S.

Pelinka A.

Petrella R.

Pfister U.

Pilsudski J.

Piore M.

Podkaminer L.

Podolec B.

Polanyi K.

Polish Institute of International Affairs

Pollack M.

Popper Sir K.

Poulantzas N.

Prader H.

Pradetto A.

Prager F.

Prebisch R.

Preston P. W.

Przeworski A.

Rabinbach A.

Raffer K.

Ragin Ch.

Rahr A.

Raith W.

Ravallon M.

Ray J. L.

Reich R. B.

Republic of Poland, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare

Research Centre for Economic and Statistical Studies of the Central Statistical Office and the Polish Academy of Sciences

Reuters Textline

Riggs F.

Robinson Th. D.

Rode R.

Roehrich W.

Rogers R.

Roos P. A.

Rosecrance R.

Ross R. J. S.

Rostow W. W.

Rothschild K. W.

Rummel R. R.

Russett B.

Saalfeld Th.

Sabbat - Swidlicka A.

Sachs J. D.

Saffioti H. B.

Salt J.

Salzburger Nachrichten

Schade W.

Scharpf F. W.

Scheidegger J.

Schloeter-Paredes M. L.

Schmidt M. G.

Schmidt P. G.

Schock K.

Schumpeter J. A.

Seager J.

Seers D.

Segal R.

Seligson M.

Sell R. R.

Senghaas D.

Shafik N.

Shaw T. M.

Sheahan M. D.

Shlaes A.

Silver B. J.

Simatupang B.

Singer H. W.

Singer P. I.

SIPRI

Slater W.

Slay B.

Smith D.

Smith D. A.

So A. Y.

Sobrino J. Societas Iesu

Socher K.

Srubar I.

Stalker B.

Stankovsky J.

Stark O.

Stauffer R. B.

Steger H. A.

Stephens J. D.

Stiftung Entwicklung und Frieden

Stokes R. G.

Sunkel O.

Suter Chr.

Swoboda H.

Szelenyi I.

Szlajfer H.

Szylko-Skoczny M.

Tabatabai H.

Taggart P.

Talos E.

Tausch A.

Tausch K.

Taylor Ch. L.

Taylor J. E.

Teague E.

Tedstrom J.

Thee M.

Therborn G.

Thompson W. R.

Thygesen N.

Tibi B.

Tilton T. A.

Timberlake M.

Tolz V.

Townley E.

Tracy M. A.

Tracy M. B.

Transition (OMRI Prague)

Treiman D. J.

Tyson L. D'A.

Ulrich Ch. J.

United Nations Centre on Transnational Corporations

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

United Nations Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Statistical Office

United Nations Development Programme

United Nations Development Programme, Warsaw

United Nations Economic and Social Council

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Warsaw Liaison Office

United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency

United States Central Intelligence Agency

United States Commission on Immigration Reform

United States Department of State

Unterleitner M.

Vaerynen R.

Van Rossem R.

Vickrey W.

Vinton L.

Vranitzky F.

Wade L. L.

Wallerstein I.

Walton J.

Ward K. B.

Washington J. M.

Weber R. Ph.

Weede E.

Weggel O.

Weidenfeld W.

Weil F. D.

Weixner B.

Weydenthal J. B.

Wheelwright E. L. (Ted)

Wickrama K. A. S.

Wieczorek P.

Wiehn E. R.

Wilkiewicz Z.

Williams B. A.

Williams K. R.

Wimberley D. W.

Wimmer M.

Winckler G.

Winters A.

Wippermann W.

Wishnevsky J.

Wistrich R. S.

Wlodarczyk C.

Woehlcke M.

Wolf J.

Wolf K. D.

Wolffsohn M.

Wolfgruber E.

Wollenberg J.

Wood A.

World Bank

World Economy Research Institute Warsaw and International Centre for Economic Growth, San Francisco

World Resources Institute

Yasmann V. A.

Zeitpunkte

Zentner Chr.

Zielonka J.

Zienkowski L.

Zimmerman E.

Zoethout T.

Zolberg A.R.